EU Referendum: Webchat with four experts on Monday 20 June, at 12 noon

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on the EU referendum with four guests with a wide range of expertise at 12 noon on Monday 20 June.

Angus Armstrong is Director of Macroeconomics at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and a Visiting Professor at Imperial College London. Prior to joining NIESR, Angus was Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at HM Treasury, closely involved with stability measures throughout the financial crisis.

Catherine Barnard is Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge. She specialises in EU law and employment law. She has advised the government over the Balance of Competences Review.

Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He also directs The UK in a Changing Europe initiative. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe including the EU politics and institutions and European security.

Will Moy is the director of Full Fact, a non-partisan fact-checking charity. Full Fact is often asked to assist the media with factual and statistical issues and Will has given evidence to the Public Administration Select Committee on the communication of official statistics and the Leveson Inquiry on accuracy and press standards.

The EU referendum will be held on 23 June.

Please do join the chat on Monday, or if you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. And do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each only (follow-ups allowed if there’s time) and please do be polite.

Thanks
MNHQ

It also worries me that the EU is so dogged by and open to corruption.

"EU institutions are vulnerable to corruption due to loopholes and poor enforcement of rules on ethics, transparency and financial control, according to a report published today by the anti-corruption group Transparency International"

"“The EU institutions have done a lot to put their house in order in recent years but strong foundations are being undermined by complex rules, complacency, and a lack of follow up,” said Carl Dolan, Director of the Transparency International EU Office.

anyway thank you for answering my questions, lots to think about there

@BishopBrennansArse

How will the rights of disabled people and workers be protected in a Brexit scenario? (Working time directives, maternity/paternity rights etc)

This is a good question, BishopBrennansArse, thank you. In a nutshell, a lot of key employment rights eg protection against unfair dismissal, redundancy, are governed by UK law, not EU law so if we voted to leave they would not be affected. Other rights, eg restrictions on the working week, paid holiday, come from EU law. We don't know what will happen if there is a vote to Leave. If the UK becomes a member of the EEA (as with Norway) we shall still be bound by EU rules on workers' rights. Any of the other scenarios would mean that the UK government could repeal employment rights coming from the EU.

For further details, see ukandeu.ac.uk/work-rest-and-the-eu-is-the-eu-really-a-champion-of-workers-rights/

@IamSlavetotheEU

Ana thank you again, interesting information on the migration from outside the EU. I would however err on the side of caution using stats from within the EU as we know the Labour government did not have the ability to count people in or out at the time the work restrictions were lifted. Similarly we get told figures one day, then embarrassed back peddling on figures the next day. We also know there is a sort of massive transient community of people who work cash in hand, live in lodgings with no tenancy agreements, live on a shoe string to send money home or to move back home. They often live in the poor parts of towns and cities.

People like Frank Field Labour MP for Birkenhead is asking us to find compassion in our hearts for the poor of the UK, and vote LEAVE people who have scarce resources at the bottom, He feels these people have been worst hit and I am glad he has spoken out for them.

I agree absolutely that our politicians have not done enough for those who have lost out because of free trade, or globalisation. The people who feel the effect of the influx of people from outside on their communities, or whose jobs have been moved to cheaper countries so they are out of work. And I agree we need to do much much better. I suppose the issue is whether we would best do this by leaving the EU? Most economists think this will make our economy smaller. And most economists also think migration has been good for the economy.

On the other hand, it is true that leaving would give us more control over who we let in (whether a government would use that control is a different matter)

@lljkk

I imagine Will Moy has an "Inappropriate to comment so no comment" personal public position on how to vote in the Referendum. But what about the others (?)

My actual Question to all but Moy is: what do you think will be the best thing and the worst thing that would happen if we remain in (or leave) membership of EU?

My question to Moy: What is any paid EU staff person actually doing or planning to try to create "a European army"?

Hi,

Let me do remain first:

Best thing would be a clear vote to remain and UK taking a true leadership role in reforming the EU (and especially Eurozone problems - this is a real tall order as the problems are very deep). Worst thing is a very narrow vote to remain and political and constitutional crisis.

For leave:

Best thing would be that we retain the four fundamental freedoms and so have access to the Single Market and try to position the UK as a conduit for business between the US, Europe and Asia. The worst thing would be unilateral changes in legislation before the withdrawal agreement (maybe 2-3 years away) as this could contradict international law and sour the negotiations.

Thanks!

@FlouncyMcFlounceFace

If we remain, is it likely we'd ever get another referendum?

Hi FlouncyMcFlounceFace

Thanks for this. The answer is that noone knows but given we have now had two referenda on the EU (1975, 2016), there is every chance there may be another one.

@AngusArmstrong

[quote lljkk] I imagine Will Moy has an "Inappropriate to comment so no comment" personal public position on how to vote in the Referendum. But what about the others (?)

My actual Question to all but Moy is: what do you think will be the best thing and the worst thing that would happen if we remain in (or leave) membership of EU?

My question to Moy: What is any paid EU staff person actually doing or planning to try to create "a European army"?

Hi,

Let me do remain first:

Best thing would be a clear vote to remain and UK taking a true leadership role in reforming the EU (and especially Eurozone problems - this is a real tall order as the problems are very deep). Worst thing is a very narrow vote to remain and political and constitutional crisis.

For leave:

Best thing would be that we retain the four fundamental freedoms and so have access to the Single Market and try to position the UK as a conduit for business between the US, Europe and Asia. The worst thing would be unilateral changes in legislation before the withdrawal agreement (maybe 2-3 years away) as this could contradict international law and sour the negotiations.

Thanks!

@AnandMenon

[quote TresDesolee] This is for any or all of you: what role do you think 'expert' opinion properly has? Not in a ridiculous way (obviously smoking causes cancer etc) but in a massive complex decision of this kind.

Essentially, do you think it's valid for people to lay as much weight on their emotional feelings as rational fact-based information?

I think there's been quite a lot of discussion recently about how the (broadly speaking) right wing does a lot better at addressing people's deep values and emotions than the left wing does - and that that's why it keeps winning when it matters. Is fact-checking a useful approach if you're looking to change people's minds?

Well, I think politics is almost as much about feelings as it is about evidence. But when weighing the two, surely it's worth having the best available evidence? And experts tend to have studies the issues for a long time, and to have lots of evidence and good methods for analysing it. I wouldn't say for a moment that they are always right, but surely it's worth considering what they say?[/quote]

Can't remember I already sent you this, but on facts, versus emotions, this might be interesting for you: ukandeu.ac.uk/multimedia/eu-how-to-decide/

@kittykitty

It feels to me as if there's a distinct class divide in how the country's expected to vote.

Hi kittykitty

That's right. Even back in October last year, researchers were talking about 'Britain divided'. Surveys shows a class divide, an age divide (younger = more likely in), an education divide (more qualifications = more likely in).

I worry that by focusing on the overall effect of things on the economy or the country, the campaigns have missed the point for many people, because what happens to whole economy isn't what happens to each one of us.

Immigration's a good example of that. Research suggests it doesn't affect wages overall that much. But some people get affected a lot, obviously, and they tend to be less well off to start with. Here's our immigration briefing.

Best wishes

Will

@thefinestwines

I'm genuinely considering moving abroad if we leave the EU. Do you think there will be some sort of amnesty prior to actually leaving, whereby free movement is allowed for a certain period of time?

Hi thefinestwines

Thanks for this. EU law (and thus the almost unrestrcited right to travel) will continue to apply until an agreement is reached that it will no longer apply. Most people expect that this will be at the end of the so-called 'Article 50 process' which will take a minimum of two years and most people expect will take longer. If, in addition, the UK agrees to become a member of the EEA (as with Norway), free movement rights will be preserved and so you can continue to enjoy rights of free movement. However, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have said that we shall not join the EEA.

@Appletreeblossom123

I have seen some pro-Leavers argue that membership of the EU disadvantages Britain in relation to its trade with non-EU member states because Britain is bound by the terms of EU trade deals and not free to negotiate its own deals. Do you consider that this argument has any validity?

Hi Appletreeblossom123,

Yes - it has validity. The EU is a union so negotiates as one body. That means that any trade deals must satisfy all 28 members. This can be difficult because not all countries have the same interests. So if the UK were to negotiate on its own, it would only need to think of its own interest. However, against this one has to consider whether the UK negotiating alone would have as much influence rather than as part of the EU.

Thank you.

@Chazmataz

And would peace in Northern Ireland be threatened if there were a border between North and South?

Hi Chazmataz

Big question, and I'm not an expert, so I can only say I hope not.

I can say there won't necessarily be a border in the sense of passport checks. There would need to be customs checks, because of trade back and forth, but it would depend on what gets negotiated what else happened. Here's our factcheck: fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/.

Best wishes

Will

@ginghamgiraffe

I am at odds with my DF over Brexit - he's a military man and so for him, the idea of a European military, rather than Nato, is abhorrent. I'm a similar demographic to Kitty and it just seems natural to me, to vote remain.

I'd be interested to see any info you have grendelsmum about how it all affects women.

To the panel - what facts do you have for my dad about how the military will work in a remain situation?

TIA

The European Union does enable member states to cooperate on military affairs, and has even run some rather small military missions. If we remain, this will continue and we may participate - it was Tony Blair, after all, who launched the EU's military policies. BUT, the EU can only act if all the member states agree, and no member state can be forced to actually contribute troops against its will (the EU doesn't have any military equipment of its own so has to use stuff the member states are willing to let it use). For fans of this military cooperation, it is a way for member states to do more together than they could acting alone, and is a way of strengthening the European contribution to NATO. For opponents it is a dangerous intrusion into the sovereign rights of states, and might undermine NATO.

@Chalalala

This is for Will Moy:

What can be done to stop the advent of post-truth politics? This referendum is not making me hopeful. No offence Will, but I don't think the (great) Full Fact website has made a huge impact in helping people distinguish fact from spin from outright lies.

And for Angus, Catherine and Anand:

Why do you think people have stopped listening to "experts"?

Here's my view on experts. Let me know if it doesn't answer your question!!
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/09/michael-gove-experts-academics-vote

@rogerrodge

Hello everyone

One of the most persuasive arguments for 'remain' is that if we're not in, we won't have any influence over decisions made in the EU. But would these decisions actually affect us if we're out? And if so, which ones are the most likely to do so?

One answer that the Leave camp gives is that, as only one of 20+ members, our voice will more and more frequently be ignored anyway. How much truth is there in this?

Thank you rogerrodge

EU law will continue to affect us if there is a vote to leave. If we decide to join the EEA we shall have access to the single market but will be bound by the rules the EU adopts but wihout having a say in their adoption. If we do not join the EEA we shall continue to trade with the EU, possibly subject to tariffs (customs duties), and our manufacturers shall have to abide by eg EU rules on product standards, before they can sell their goods on the EU market (in the same way that US and Chinese manufacturers do).

@TresDesolee

This is for any or all of you: what role do you think 'expert' opinion properly has? Not in a ridiculous way (obviously smoking causes cancer etc) but in a massive complex decision of this kind.

@TresDesolee

Is fact-checking a useful approach if you're looking to change people's minds?

Hi TresDesolee

Short answer is we're not looking to change people's minds, just to make sure nobody wakes up on Friday feeling like they were misled about how to vote.

Voters are never wrong in the end, so it's up to each of us what mix of information, interpretation, opinion, and gut feeling we make our minds up with.

But there is another side, which is that voters deserve to have some comeback if campaigns give us false information. Factchecking gives power to voters, when we can't possibly all be expected to go and read all the treaties and statistics ourselves. So experts should aim to serve voters, not tell people what to do.

And you can always tell them where to go!

Best wishes

Will

@thecatfromjapan

This is a great webchat.

Thank you for being here, and thank you MNHQ.

Thank you! It's great to be invited—thank you MNHQ.

(And we factcheck everything, not just the EU, so always happy to come back).

@annandale

Allowing the rush of fury at Tate15's post to subside...

Is the EU already in a proxy conflict with Putin's Russia, and thinking of both Remain and Leave scenarios, is that conflict likely to increase, decrease or change?

The EU has imposed sanctions on Russia after Russia's intervention in Ukraine. Both the EU and NATO opposed what Russia did in Ukraine, and it is NATO that is handling the military response - by putting more troops in eastern Europe, for example. Whether we leave or remain, the situation will stay much the same, and we will still be involved both through our membership of NATO and as a state that is committed to opposing the use of force by one country against another.

@HandsomeGroomGiveHerRoom

What will happen in the years immediately after a Leave vote to current UK residents from other EU countries? Will they be forced to leave? What about UK nationals living in the EU?

Thanks for this. The position of UK residents will mainly depend on the outcome of the 'Article 50 negotiations' (the process by which the UK will probably use to leave the EU). For those who have been in, say, France, for over five years they are likely to be considered long-term residents and will enjoy some rights under EU law.

But this won't happen overnight. The Article 50 negotiations will take at lrst two years and probably longer.

[quote RortyCrankle]I would like to ask you opinion on the following article published in the Telegraph last October: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11949038/Europes-glory-days-at-an-end-warns-Juncker.html[/quote]

I think it is a very honest assessment. The demographics in the EU are relatively poor. Economic growth depends on population size and productivity. So its true that in relative terms the growth prospects for the EU are poor. In terms of the 'integration' point, there is much less appetite then in the heyday or the grand project. I'm not sure this is a 'EU' only problem. Most governments in the world are really grappling or stuck with how to deal with the consequences of globalisation.

For the Brexit vote - the UK is by far our single biggest market whether in relative decline or not!

Best wishes!

Wrapping up quite soon, but if you want more, do visit www.ukandeu.ac.uk for impartial analysis of the key questions.

Thanks will and anand - I like Full Fact, think it does a valuable job, just think the facts vs emotions stuff is interesting. (Am quite possibly the only one who does )

Really interesting to see some of the info on here. I thought I was well informed but this webchat has corrected my smugness a bit.

Anand, thanks for the article. Very interesting discussion of the role of the academic expert.

Great webchat everyone, thank you!

That was nice.

Thank you.

I wish Mumsnet did a version of webchat TEDtalks. I'm kind of wishing you'd do one on globalisation, now.

@Chalalala

This is for Will Moy:

What can be done to stop the advent of post-truth politics? This referendum is not making me hopeful. No offence Will, but I don't think the (great) Full Fact website has made a huge impact in helping people distinguish fact from spin from outright lies.

Hi Chalalala

Actually, I've been a little encouraged by the referendum in places. There's plenty to feel grim about, it's true, and of course we make our biggest impact not just on our own site but on places like MN and on radio and TV. It's been great to be getting more of an audience in all those places.

There are also some wrong claims we used to hear a lot that we've heard little of in this campaign, for example the claim that 3 million jobs rely on the UK being in the EU. That's the result of patient work over five years.

So two lessons –

1. Voters should give campaigns more grief when they play tricks with the truth, it's up to all of us to demand the kind of politics we want
2. Researchers need to start earlier, to try to stop dodgy claims before they get spread. We know that can be done, and it's a lot easier than stopping inaccurate claims that everyone has already heard. Full Fact is going to be starting to think about the next election, working with top researchs orgs, as soon as the referendum ends.

Best wishes

Will