EU Referendum: Webchat with four experts on Monday 20 June, at 12 noon

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on the EU referendum with four guests with a wide range of expertise at 12 noon on Monday 20 June.

Angus Armstrong is Director of Macroeconomics at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and a Visiting Professor at Imperial College London. Prior to joining NIESR, Angus was Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at HM Treasury, closely involved with stability measures throughout the financial crisis.

Catherine Barnard is Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge. She specialises in EU law and employment law. She has advised the government over the Balance of Competences Review.

Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He also directs The UK in a Changing Europe initiative. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe including the EU politics and institutions and European security.

Will Moy is the director of Full Fact, a non-partisan fact-checking charity. Full Fact is often asked to assist the media with factual and statistical issues and Will has given evidence to the Public Administration Select Committee on the communication of official statistics and the Leveson Inquiry on accuracy and press standards.

The EU referendum will be held on 23 June.

Please do join the chat on Monday, or if you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. And do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each only (follow-ups allowed if there’s time) and please do be polite.

Thanks
MNHQ

@trailblazer86

The Brexit campaigning has exposed deep divides in Britain. Worryingly, dangerous, racist sentiments appear to be more prevalent than perhaps many of us wished to acknowledge.

How do you think we will recover as a country - in terms of social unity and racial equality - whether we leave or remain?

I think it will take time. And you're dead right that the campaign has revealed dangerous divisions. I think one crucial issue will be how quickly, and whether, the Tory party can heal itself after this. If it can't, then this debate will simply fester and might come back to dominate their leadership contest and hence our politics again.

@lljkk

My question to Moy: What is any paid EU staff person actually doing or planning to try to create "a European army"?

Hi lljkk

Like I said to Tate15, we're not allowed to take sides.

Here's what we know about an EU army: fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/.

Basically, there is provision in the EU treaties for common defence, and there are people who want an EU army, but it would need every EU country, including (at least for now!) the UK to agree for it to happen.

There are some soliders running about with EU badges on their uniforms, though, because the EU does coordinate some military missions based on existing armies working together. Read our factcheck for the full details.

Hope that helps

Will

@rogerrodge

Hello everyone

One of the most persuasive arguments for 'remain' is that if we're not in, we won't have any influence over decisions made in the EU. But would these decisions actually affect us if we're out? And if so, which ones are the most likely to do so?

One answer that the Leave camp gives is that, as only one of 20+ members, our voice will more and more frequently be ignored anyway. How much truth is there in this?

Well, I'm sorry to do this but the answer starts with 'it depends'. If we leave and join the EEA, so become like Norway, many of the rules passed will still impact directly on us, and we won't have a vote - just a say in the negotiations. If we leave without this kind of deal, then decisions won't impact us directly. We are only one of 28 when we're in, but evidence suggests we've been relatively successful both in getting what we want and making sure we're not involved in the things we don't like (Schengen, Euro).

@IamSlavetotheEU

Over half the migration is from outside the EU and we could control that now

But isn't it true that migration from outside is regulated, people who can support themselves and have job offers and who have to jump through hoops to come here, as oppose to literally anyone from the EU with skills we arguably don't need as Steve Hilton said " un limited Hungarian waiters who don't add value to our economy?"
Isn't it true that due to the un limited immigration our hands are tied on the migration from outside, where we could be stopping people with skills needed from coming here?

Thanks for this question. There is currently more migration coming from outside the EU (c 277,000) than from inside the EU (c 270,000). The UK does have control over the numbers of migrants coming from outisde the EU through a type of points based system. At present this is only for high skilled migrants and students because the EU provides the lower skilled migrants (as qell as higher skilled migrants). And yes, you're right, EU law provides for almost unrestricted migration from within the EU, albeit that the numbers coming are lower than from outside the EU where we do have control. On the other hand, the UK as a whole (I realise there is considerable regional variation) is currently close to full employment which suggests that migrants are able to find jobs here and the Hungarian waiter will be paying taxes and NI. S/he will also be buying goods in the shops and paying VAT, so contributing to the UK economy.

@Devilishpyjamas

Particularly for Angus Armstrong: What would the next five years look like under a Brexit scenario? (I am thinking a lot of instability, housing market crash, another recession & a lot of redundancies - am I too gloomy?)

Let me try and summarise the consensus economic views from the main economic bodies (OECD, IMF, IFS, CEP, NIESR for example). Brexit will probably lead to lower household incomes. In the short run (next 3 to 4 years) this is likely to be between 1 and 3%. Over the longer term, this is likely to be between 2 and 8% - depending on which forecast you believe. In the short term, unemployment is likely to be higher. Each 1% drop in GDP is worth about £19bn or £720 for each UK household. Note, that these estimates are after taking account of the saving of our net contribution to the EU budget. I should add that in the short term the uncertainty about how we would actually withdraw might complicate the economic outlook. There is one forecast which shows the UK would be better off by an interest group called 'Economists for Brexit'. A full comparison can be found here
ukandeu.ac.uk/comparing-brexit-forecasts-who-should-we-believe-on-the-economy/

@AnandMenon

[quote TresDesolee] This is for any or all of you: what role do you think 'expert' opinion properly has? Not in a ridiculous way (obviously smoking causes cancer etc) but in a massive complex decision of this kind.

Essentially, do you think it's valid for people to lay as much weight on their emotional feelings as rational fact-based information?

I think there's been quite a lot of discussion recently about how the (broadly speaking) right wing does a lot better at addressing people's deep values and emotions than the left wing does - and that that's why it keeps winning when it matters. Is fact-checking a useful approach if you're looking to change people's minds?

Well, I think politics is almost as much about feelings as it is about evidence. But when weighing the two, surely it's worth having the best available evidence? And experts tend to have studies the issues for a long time, and to have lots of evidence and good methods for analysing it. I wouldn't say for a moment that they are always right, but surely it's worth considering what they say?[/quote]

Incidentally, on facts versus emotions, see this: ukandeu.ac.uk/multimedia/eu-how-to-decide/

@GrendelsMother23

How would you go about providing not just women, but all sorts of demographics, with information that might be key in their decision-making process? It seems really difficult to strike a balance between being informative and being patronizing (i.e. the cringey yoof-speak of the advert that urged "votin'".)

Hi GrendelsMother23

Thanks for having us! That's a great question, and it's not easy.

One of the things we've published I like most is our article about how leaving would affect you personally instead of just the big overall economic numbers we've heard so much about.

You can see we do videos on facebook, graphics on twitter, and everything from breakfast TV to the Today Programme. Hopefully each bit of that is useful to everyone, because different people care about different things.

It is very hard to balance giving people enough info to make up their own minds, and not so much that they want to switch off. Let me know if you think we're doing it right?

Best wishes

Will

@HandsomeGroomGiveHerRoom

What will happen in the years immediately after a Leave vote to current UK residents from other EU countries? Will they be forced to leave? What about UK nationals living in the EU?

The Leave side have said that those already here will be fine, and it will be a question of what policies we adopt towards future migrants. One interesting question will be what happens, for instance, to people from the EU who have worked here for a while, returned home, and want to come back.

Thanks Angus - it seems my fears are somewhat founded then.... And yes the effect of uncertainty worries me.....

@Peanutbutterjellytime123

How do you feel about Eurovision?

Here's my actual serious question - I think immigration makes the UK what it is and I am technically the daughter of an immigrant, I've also heard that there's more immigration from outside of the EU, so why is immigration being touted as such a threat and one of the main arguments in this EU ref? Or is it really a threat and I'm just living in la la land?

Thank you. As you will see from my reply to IamaSlavetotheEU, there is more migration to the UK from outside the EU that within it, although the numbers are getting closer. As to why immigration is such a contentious and central subject, there are many reasons but one of them is that the enlargement of the EU to the East in 2004 and the subsequent migration began to coincide with the austerity cuts imposed following the financial crisis. For example, local government funding from Central Government has been cut by about 37% since 2010 and this inevitably has an impact on the provision of public services which are under such strain.

@IamSlave

I agree, we need to know which are remain and which are leave, I assume, it will be balanced, two for and two for freedom

Do you all agree that either way, remain or leave is going to be based on speculation. We cannot have FACTS if we leave, its all conjecture but its exactly the same for Remain. The EU has changed out of all recognition since we joined, and no one can predict what it will become, with the considerable challenges it faces internally and externally.

It is absolutely true that there are no facts about the future. But I would differentiate between guesswork and informed speculation. So, there are people who understand how the EU negotiates with non member states and have interesting insights on what might happen - though obviously Britain is different to Norway, so we can't be certain history will be a guide. And you're quite right, the EU is changing and will probably continue to change. So one question that should concern us is whether the countries in the Euro will try to integrate further by, for instance, creating a new parliament for themselves or creating an EU budget. If they do, this will almost certainly have implications for states that are in the EU but not in the euro

@IamSlavetotheEU

Over half the migration is from outside the EU and we could control that now

But isn't it true that migration from outside is regulated, people who can support themselves and have job offers and who have to jump through hoops to come here, as oppose to literally anyone from the EU with skills we arguably don't need as Steve Hilton said " un limited Hungarian waiters who don't add value to our economy?"
Isn't it true that due to the un limited immigration our hands are tied on the migration from outside, where we could be stopping people with skills needed from coming here?

Well we could make that true if we wanted, but it isn't. A lower proportion of migrants from outside the EU work than of migrants from inside. There is quite a lot of family reunification from - 18% of non EU migrants come here to join someone as opposed to 7% from inside the EU. And remember there are a lot of relatively low skilled jobs that still need doing and are often done by migrants in areas such as the hospitality or catering or agricultural sectors.

@Enb76

Leaving out the question of immigration which I think is a complete smokescreen and unworthy of either side:

If you were to make a Remain case what would you focus on?

If you were to make a Leave case, what would you focus on?

Thanks for this. The strongest case for Remain concerns the economy and the bigger picture (working cooperatively, the future). The strongest case for Leave concerns control (parliamentary sovereignty) and independence.

Thank you Ana, both sides are made up of both guesswork and informed speculation and outside factors cause reaction eg Syrian Crisis which morphed into something terrible beyond all our worst nightmares and has had a huge impact on the EU.

How will the rights of disabled people and workers be protected in a Brexit scenario?
(Working time directives, maternity/paternity rights etc)

@BirdInTheRoom

What plans are in place to ensure public services/infrastructure will be able to cope with expected population increases to 80 million by 2039?

Hi BirdInTheRoom

It's worth saying that the population is going up (and immigration is most of the reason why) but there's no way to say with confidence how much immigration we'll have in future. Nobody knows.

We currently have a record high level of immigration. We'll only hit 80 million by 2039 if that goes on for another 25 years. It might, but we just don't know.

We looked at this when we checked Nigel Farage saying we need a new house every four minutes (not a million miles off). We've been building less than needed for a long time.

On the NHS, though, we asked the Nuffield Trust (a health research group) to look at the figures. They calculated that EU immigration is putting pressure on the NHS—about £160 million worth—but the growing and aging UK population is adding about ten times more cost. More money is going into the NHS, but not everyone is sure it's enough. Here's a Nuffield Trust podcast on are NHS services on the brink of collapse?

Best wishes

Will

@shitchef

Yes would be helpful to know who supports which side of the EU debate.

I tend to agree with the idea that economists exist to make astrologers look reliable but do the panel think that their inability to predict the 2008 crash have rendered their views on the EU referendum irrelevant?

And a question to MNHQ, was the staging of the Amber Rudd webchat at 8.30 am (when most parents will be doing the school run) deliberate?

Thank you for the flattery! Astrologers may have an easier job because planet movements are fairly predictable and human behaviour...well.

But to give you a serious answer, I will just say that there is a very strong consensus amongst economists on whether Brexit would leave households better or worse off. The clear consensus is that Brexit would result in an economic loss for UK households. Ten nobel prize winning economists, many who are not even European, made a clear statement to the Guardian today.

Of course, there are a few who do not agree with the consensus and, much more importantly, there are many more important issues other than economics to consider.

In terms of the 2008 crisis, there were some economists making clear statements about the vulnerabilities at the time (including the chief economist at the world bank at the time). Alas, there were many many more who are barely engaged with real world events and that is a great shame.

@bkgirl

May we start with the phrase "democratic deficit" that people keep using to justify an undemocratic EU? Why is democracy suddenly a problematic detail?

Democracy is obviously crucial, and there are some people who say that even if leaving the EU costs us economically it is a price worth paying to restore democracy. For an international organisation, the EU is actually quite democratic. It has the only democratically elected transnational parliament in the world, and all laws have to be approved both by the parliament and at least a qualified majority of ministers from the member states.

BUT, the EU is more than a normal international organisation. When it passes laws, these can become binding on us EVEN IF We VOTE AGAINST THEM, which is a unique situation. There are two issues here. Whether EU procedures are democratic enough to maintain this kind of thing, and also whether, even if the procedures are fine, people FEEL sufficiently European to justify the system. At the heart of most political systems is a sense of common interest and common belonging, and the EU does not really have this.

There is no right or wrong answer here - simply a trade off between democratic control and what you might think are the benefits the system gives us.

@okeyhokeycokey

Many people I've spoken to in the last week are still not 100% sure on their decision. With so much contradictory information and opinions flying around, is there any one issue or question which you think could be clarified which would help those people decide?

Ultimately it is a question about what you and your family want and value most: being part of a large grouping (single market, 500 million consumers, with almost unrestricted right to travel) or standing alone, having greater say over what happens in the UK and a greater ability to kick out the politicians you don't like. If the former, you are more likely to vote Remain, the latter, Vote Leave

This is a great webchat.

Thank you for being here, and thank you MNHQ.

Open boarders - Not being able to control an overwhelming swell of immigration could prove ludicrous. What is the vision/benefits of having open borders in the EU?

Ana thank you again, interesting information on the migration from outside the EU.
I would however err on the side of caution using stats from within the EU as we know the Labour government did not have the ability to count people in or out at the time the work restrictions were lifted. Similarly we get told figures one day, then embarrassed back peddling on figures the next day.
We also know there is a sort of massive transient community of people who work cash in hand, live in lodgings with no tenancy agreements, live on a shoe string to send money home or to move back home. They often live in the poor parts of towns and cities.

People like Frank Field Labour MP for Birkenhead is asking us to find compassion in our hearts for the poor of the UK, and vote LEAVE people who have scarce resources at the bottom, He feels these people have been worst hit and I am glad he has spoken out for them.

@StrawberryTournament

Is the status quo as safe as people think, or any more desirable than creating our own country's future ourselves?

Hi StrawberryTournament

I don't think there is a status quo here. We don't know what leaving would be like but we don't know what the EU will be like in ten years if we stay in either, and this decision is likely to be for a lot more than ten years.

It's up to you whether leave or remain is more desirable!

Best wishes

Will

@BishopBrennansArse

How will the rights of disabled people and workers be protected in a Brexit scenario? (Working time directives, maternity/paternity rights etc)

That will depend on what a British government decides to do. If we are out of the EU, the fate of these rights will depend on that.

@01823Caz

Open boarders - Not being able to control an overwhelming swell of immigration could prove ludicrous. What is the vision/benefits of having open borders in the EU?

The EU allows free movement of labour, so people are free to move within the EU and work. This does not mean that all the refugees from, say, Syria could come over here. What it does mean is that all EU citizens can go and work in another EU country.