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Interest rates? Are they ever going up? Whay are they not being used to control inflation?

7 replies

TheRooftops · 24/02/2010 22:32

I am worried that despite the latest inflation figures, the Bank of England are in no hurry to increase interest rates. Do you think they are just not going to, in case it cripples all those people who are over-extended on their mortgages? If so, are we more at risk of a run on the pound? Who wants to put their money into sterling when there is no return? Will they let sterling crash? Inflate the ecomony to reduce debt levels?
Anyone interested in economics want to help me out on this?

OP posts:
maggiethecat · 24/02/2010 23:45

Wish I could help you out on this - afraid I can't. I am interested in the various scenarios as I have US dollars that I need to convert to sterling at some point. If there is likely to be a run on sterling then I may as well just wait.

TheRooftops · 25/02/2010 10:08

Any economics-watchers out there care to offer a view?
Is anyone with savings worried right now?

OP posts:
frogetyfrog · 25/02/2010 16:40

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mumof9 · 01/03/2010 23:22

Bank of England (BoE) short term interest rates are being held down so that the banks can borrow (from the BoE) for 0.5%, and then lend that money at >5% to the likes of you and me. Note: you cannot borrow from the BofE so you have to pay more to get money from the banks..

This process (see "yield curve" if you are interested!) gives the banks 'free money' to repair their balance sheets (they over-lent and now debts are going bad). They need profits to cover these losses for many years to come.

Despite the immorality of 'free money' for badly behaving banks - moral hazard - it is being done because no large bank can be allowed to fail ever again. There is a simple reason for this; and it is what spooked the financial system so much when Lehman Brothers died. The reason is Derivatives. Read up on them if you like at the Bank for International Settlements, but the nominal outstanding derivatives contracts in the world exceeded one Quadrillion dollars last year. Thats 20 times world GDP. A Quadrillion is 1000 Trillion. Thats "1000 million million" dollars. Mind bending, isn't it!?

Now why am I going on about derivatives? well, think of them like insurance contracts. But say you could buy fire insurance for your neighbours house. Now if you bought some, you have an incentive to go and set fire to your neighbours house. You'd have to be mad, but essentially that's what happened with Goldman Sachs and AIG.

Goldman took insurance against AIG dying and then promptly killed them by demanding huge collateral deposits on positions which AIG could not possibly meet.

The problem here is that the volume of the insurance contracts in existence exceeds the value of what's insured by many times over. Thus the payouts on the insurance would be so huge they would cause a domino effect, like a financial nuclear bomb going off.
Simply cashpoints would stop and the banks would be closed for an extended time. This has happened before in countries like Argentina (google "corralito")

The mechanism of holding the medium and longer term rates down is "quantitative easing" which has now paused in the UK, but will likely contiune once rates in the interbank area start to rise.

Rates have to be kept low to encourage inflation in asset prices. This has to happen because increasing asset prices will make the banks bad loans 'come good' as the homes in negative equity come back out. The problem is, inflation affects everything - you could find it costs £50 for a mars bar; and a £million for the average house!

So, essentially savers and pensioners will be paying to bail out feckless borrowers and loose lenders because interest rates will not keep pace with inflation. This, you must understand is the DESIRED effect. It's robbery.
I voted with my feet years ago and bought gold. It's still not too late.

DaisymooSteiner · 02/03/2010 11:01

I thought mortgages were funded through interbank lending and the BoE was the lender of 'last resort' (so when it was discovered Northern Rock were having to borrow from the BoE there was a run on the bank)?

mumof9 · 02/03/2010 15:49

Mortgage rates charged to you and me reflect roughly the ten year yield on government debt (plus a bit). This is being held down by QE.

Usually, the banks do borrow overnight and short term in the interbank market to fund this. Trouble is, as the interbank market seized up due to the credit crunch and counterparty risk, the BoE had to step in and lent vast sums to basically all the banks. You must realise that in propping up Northern Rock, the government bailed out the banks which had lent money to NR, so in effect they bailed out the whole system!

BY the way, the QE operation of £200Bn if left untouched will eventually equate to £1,000Bn of extra credit in the system (google Fractional Reserve Banking, money multiplier).

This roughly doubles the UK money supply. It's a huge deal. Look out!

tenista · 02/03/2010 20:44

The policy interest rate (base rate) is not going up for a long time. The MPC has made it very clear that the "recovery" is on a knife edge, and any monetary tightening would be devastating, especially as there will be viscious fiscal tightening (government spending cuts and tax rises)post the election.

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