We’re heading for recession surely?

[EvangelicalAboutButteredToast]

Just reading the latest news about lack of economic growth and ever rising inflation on top of the tax rises just announced in the budget and a slowing job market. Surely we’re on track for a recession?

Yes, and most Western countries the same I think.

All those debt piles built up in COVID and the Credit Crunch must come home to roost eventually.

it certainly looks to be heading that way, sadly I think there will be an upswing in repossessions too.

I read an argument years ago that predicted a global depression in the 30s. I can actually envisage it happening.

Inflation is going down, not up. Just for a bit of balance here.

It was lower this month than last month, but come on - the longer term trend is that it is running way higher in the last 5 years years than the 20 years before that.

Why do you think inflation is a sign of an impending recession?

I thought inflation was falling. A BoE podcast I listened too this week predicted continuing falls in the long term.

Yesterdays growth forecast was increased. Its small, I agree, and the smaller it is theres a chance itll reverse and become a reduction but thats not what is predicted.

How do you draw this conclusion?

I would say I can understand your viewpoint if you are buying beef, going to the cinema or wandering the high streets. All quite grim, I agree.

However, enter a medium priced/fast food restaurant or cafe and they are packed out. Watch deliveries in your neighbourhood - they are pretty manic too. Neither of these shout recession just a different way of sourcing items.

My friend said we will end up like China, with a social credit score system.
Obviously she was joking.

Aren’t we always heading towards a recession and a slump in the housing market?

Is it not just 100 year cycle & we’re repeating the 1900s again - pandemic, war in Europe, recession / depression in the 30s etc?!

We just need to ride the wave!

Probably.

Just keep your job, have some cash tucked in the pages of books on your bookcase as well as your savings account and don’t get into debt.

Buy shares if they plunge and don’t sell the ones you own if they plunge.

Be grateful for what you have and try not to think what you don’t have. And in 5 years’ time hopefully all will be fine.

I realise some people are feeling the pinch, but I don't think the economic data points to a recession - at least not yet:
Inflation is falling steadily towards the B of E target, leading to successive cuts in interest rates;
IMF predicts the UK economic growth will be the second fastest in G7, beaten only by the US;
FTSE has shown the strongest growth this year in a decade:
Unemployment is still relatively low.

Yes I think we are going to see a decline next year.

With the increase in min wage there will be less jobs for the young. Some employers will have to make staff redundant to cover the cost of extra wages.
There has been a bit of freeze in recruitment recently in the lead up to the budget and now that employers know wages are rising that freeze may well continue.

I think the country's finances are going to be worse than the budget has made some of us think. There is no growth in the economy and none planned in the budget. Just just how do we stop borrowing each month to pay our current spending. Also when you look at some of the items RR has counted as bring in extra money you realise they are never going to come to fruition. Like she has said 2billion saved from better collection process - doubt that will happen.

Also now that the bond markets have the UK paying much higher interest rates does that not mean that as we refinance bonds falling due for repayment, they will have to be refinanced at a higher interest rate. This means our interest will be higher than currently even if debt stayed the same figure (which it won't).

I've been watching lots of podcasts since yesterday on analysis of the budget. On the surface the budget seemed quite 'harmless' compared to all the rumours flying about. However start digging into all the detail and implications and you can see that the budget has not fixed anything at all. There was no plan to start repaying our debt so we can save on that enormous interest each year.

There was no plan to make the NHS work better or for us to contribute a bit.

There didn't seem to be anything for education apart from the SEN budget being moved there and teachers are now threatening to strike according to todays telegraph.

There was nothing about funding for frontline police to stop all this shoplifting.

It did feel like a budget to try and keep everyone quiet for a bit longer whilst tackling absolutely nothing. I think the markets had already priced in all the UK's problems and so were relieved that there was nothing immediate or outrageous in the budget. However we are still a country with falling growth, increasing debt and a goverment who does not appear to know what they are doing. it will interesting to see what BOE does next month re interest rates. I am guessing they are still caught between a rock and hard place. They will want to cut rates to try to help growth but they will also not want inflation to go up any further so this would normally stop them making cuts.

I remember lots of people on mumsnet last year saying the budget had been better than they anticipated. Then gradually we all realised that the economy was not going well. I think there has been an element of that here. People are a bit relieved at some of the rumours not coming to fruition but the economy is worse now. Benefits are higher. Taxpayers are more squeezed. No plans for growth. I would expect lots of people to keep being careful with their money to see how the next year goes. That's certainly my plan.

Yes, we probably are. But they come and go. We were known as Boom and Bust Britain.