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Can my pension forecast be right? Am I reading it wrong?

154 replies

Maggiemargherita · 30/01/2025 22:43

Does this mean I will get a full state pension with 3 more years of contributions? If so I don’t understand why. I’m 44.

Can my pension forecast be right? Am I reading it wrong?
OP posts:
Thread gallery
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sunbooster · 31/01/2025 12:38

I'm a year older than OP, I'm 45 and my forecast is showing I need to contribute another 6 years. I have 29 full years already, no gaps, so I guess I need 35 years in total even though I started contributions in 1995. I worked enough through uni years that I don't have gaps from that period.

I have a toddler so I'm not worried about my future contributions, I'll be able to claim NI credits through child benefit for another 9 years.

Can my pension forecast be right? Am I reading it wrong?
Weepixie · 31/01/2025 12:44

What would 221 pounds per week be worth in 2048? It’s not going to buy very much - it hardly buys anything today.

Maggiemargherita · 31/01/2025 12:50

Weepixie · 31/01/2025 12:44

What would 221 pounds per week be worth in 2048? It’s not going to buy very much - it hardly buys anything today.

It increases with inflation

OP posts:
cocoloco23 · 31/01/2025 13:46

rainbowunicorn · 31/01/2025 08:18

You aren't just paying into a state pension. It isn't a pot of money just for you. The contributions also entitke you to a range of other benefits if needed.

Edited

Thank you (and to everyone else who replied). That’s what I didn’t understand - are NI contributions split into state pension / other stuff.

Titasaducksarse · 31/01/2025 13:53

Mine's very similar. Only a few more years to go and I've got 35 years of full contribution to draw full pension at...what will probably be 87 by then

rainbowunicorn · 31/01/2025 13:55

Weepixie · 31/01/2025 12:44

What would 221 pounds per week be worth in 2048? It’s not going to buy very much - it hardly buys anything today.

It increases evey year. Due to go up to £230 in april

Weepixie · 31/01/2025 13:56

It increases with inflation

@rainbowunicorn thank you. I wasn’t aware of that. Enjoy it when you receive it. You’ve worked hard for it.

OnGoldenPond · 31/01/2025 18:00

cocoloco23 · 31/01/2025 00:52

When you contribute enough, do your state pension contributions stop being deducted automatically?

Sadly no. You continue to pay employees National Insurance at the same rate until you reach state retirement age. This is because National Insurance isn't a personal pot but rather is effectively just another tax, but you gain the entitlement to receive the state pension after contributing for a set number of years. Unless government decide to pass legislation to abolish the state pension, which they are legally entitled to do (though this would likely be political suicide).

Huskytrot · 31/01/2025 18:07

boxyboxs · 31/01/2025 06:23

It can’t be to prop up other people’s pensions, because everyone is responsible for making enough contributions to their own state pension.

We have an ageing population hence why economically we are in trouble. NI is paid forward. State pension age is now 68 for some & remember there are talks of mean testing...

Such a misunderstanding.

Contributions paid now are paying for today's pensioners. Not your future pension.

Eastie77Returns · 31/01/2025 18:46

Similar to the OP, I can see in my Gov.UK Account “Forecast if you contribute another 2 years before 5 April 2044: £221.20 per week”

If I contribute for another 2 years and then stop working, I assume I still get this forecast pension in 2044?

rainbowunicorn · 31/01/2025 19:21

Eastie77Returns · 31/01/2025 18:46

Similar to the OP, I can see in my Gov.UK Account “Forecast if you contribute another 2 years before 5 April 2044: £221.20 per week”

If I contribute for another 2 years and then stop working, I assume I still get this forecast pension in 2044?

As things stand at the moment yes.

OnGoldenPond · 31/01/2025 19:59

Viviennemary · 31/01/2025 06:56

What I don't get is this. If OP is 44 and needs 35 years contributions how can it be that she needs only 3 more years contributions from now. Which by my calculations means that she started contributing when she was 12 which can't be right.

She doesn't need 35 years as she started paying NI before 2016. She needs 30 years contributions.

OnGoldenPond · 31/01/2025 20:11

Choux · 31/01/2025 08:00

Re credits for when in school between age 16-18 there's a response here from HMRC Admin 20 posting on the HMRC forum:

"Until 5 April 2010, to protect the NI records of students who stayed in full time education for tax years commencing on or after 6 April 1975, regulation 4 allowed a customer to be credited with Class 3 NICs, which count for State Pension and, up until 6 April 2017, bereavement benefits.
These starting credits could be awarded for the full three tax years containing their 16th, 17th and 18th birthdays, whether or not the young person was in full time education, and were recorded on their National Insurance account.
If your period at University was after 18 years of age , no further credits would be due."

Source: community.hmrc.gov.uk/customerforums/ni/2b89e23c-a067-ee11-a81c-6045bd0bb098

And some of the posters are as feisty as Mumsnetters!

I got NI credits for my time in sixth form and also for my first year at uni as I was still 18 until almost the start of my second year. So only missed out on 2 years contributions for my uni years. Benefits of a late summer birthday!

windyweather66 · 01/02/2025 16:09

OnGoldenPond · 31/01/2025 19:59

She doesn't need 35 years as she started paying NI before 2016. She needs 30 years contributions.

This is wrong. She does need 35 qualifying years to get the full SP. It changed in 2016 from 30 to 35 years, even if you started paying earlier.

I started paying NI in 1973. When I got my first forecast in 2014 it was 30 years, but it changed to 35 in 2016.

PartyOFive · 01/02/2025 17:54

windyweather66 · 01/02/2025 16:09

This is wrong. She does need 35 qualifying years to get the full SP. It changed in 2016 from 30 to 35 years, even if you started paying earlier.

I started paying NI in 1973. When I got my first forecast in 2014 it was 30 years, but it changed to 35 in 2016.

When they changed the system in 2016 they recalculated the amount of years needed for everyone who had already started paying NI years. I have no idea what the calculation was but from my understanding they worked out how many years your contributions up til then would count for under the new system and therefore how many you needed to get to 35 "new system years". Some years under the old system were not worth a full year under the new one, but others were actually worth more.

So everyone's calculation at that point was different and why some people needed to pay in more than 35 years of contributions, where some people might need less (my statement suggests I need just 32 though I don't know why some of my pre 2016 years were worth more).

So the only way to know what the changes meant for an individual, or for anyone to work out how many contributions have or need, is to check their statement.

rainbowunicorn · 01/02/2025 19:07

windyweather66 · 01/02/2025 16:09

This is wrong. She does need 35 qualifying years to get the full SP. It changed in 2016 from 30 to 35 years, even if you started paying earlier.

I started paying NI in 1973. When I got my first forecast in 2014 it was 30 years, but it changed to 35 in 2016.

This is not correct. Everybody who had a NI before 2016 had recalculation done. The number of years needed could be anything from 29 to more than 40.
The 35 years applies to anyone starting from 2016. So you can't just assume 25 years is correct for everyone.
It would have just been coincidence that you needed 35 due to your own personal circumstances.

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 19:19

@rainbowunicorn you have given a lot of advice on this thread. Are you able to confirm please that you are a registered independent financial adviser or are an actuary working in the pensions industry please?

Brahumbug · 01/02/2025 19:35

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 19:19

@rainbowunicorn you have given a lot of advice on this thread. Are you able to confirm please that you are a registered independent financial adviser or are an actuary working in the pensions industry please?

Whether she is or not, the information given by rainbowunicorn is correct.

Spectre8 · 01/02/2025 19:38

The only way to know is to log on and see your own statement and call them if you have questions.

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 19:46

Brahumbug · 01/02/2025 19:35

Whether she is or not, the information given by rainbowunicorn is correct.

Are you? The statements come with caveats. Mine says the max and I cannot increase it. It then says it's a forecast and may differ if I have been contracted out. My NI record does not indicate the contracted out years and I do not have payslips from the 80s/90's. There were also different definitions relating to the contracted out schemes. Inwas contracted out 2004 to 2016 in the LGPS. I may have also been contracted out 1987/1989, 1991 to 1993, 1994 to 1996.

At one point a cope amount was quoted and I could work back from that that if I worked to 65, I would have a full entitlement. However, I didn't make a note of the cope amount and it has now disappeared.

I shall try to find time to ring the helpline on Monday. I am not persuaded I shall find out the definite answer until I actually claim my pension.

RedFatball · 01/02/2025 19:48

I'm 46 and have 2 more years to pay after this one

looking back I got 3 years for sixth form, missed 3 for university and have worked or received CB credits ever since. I think that puts me at needing 31 years in total. I never contracted out, so I assume some of my pre 2016 years are worth more. It's a very complicated subject!

Marshbird · 01/02/2025 19:56

Maggiemargherita · 30/01/2025 22:53

Thank you! Yes I did.

I recently stopped working and thought I’d have 8 years to contribute voluntarily so I’m chuffed

Make sure you top up with voluntarily contribtions before you retire,
this is a no brainer in terms of spend vs what you’ll get in terms of a guaranteed income .
its probably a bit too soon to do this yet, unless you absolutely know you’ll never pay any more NI contributions ….but a simple and cost effective thing to do.

Marshbird · 01/02/2025 20:00

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 19:46

Are you? The statements come with caveats. Mine says the max and I cannot increase it. It then says it's a forecast and may differ if I have been contracted out. My NI record does not indicate the contracted out years and I do not have payslips from the 80s/90's. There were also different definitions relating to the contracted out schemes. Inwas contracted out 2004 to 2016 in the LGPS. I may have also been contracted out 1987/1989, 1991 to 1993, 1994 to 1996.

At one point a cope amount was quoted and I could work back from that that if I worked to 65, I would have a full entitlement. However, I didn't make a note of the cope amount and it has now disappeared.

I shall try to find time to ring the helpline on Monday. I am not persuaded I shall find out the definite answer until I actually claim my pension.

I found them really helpful to get to bottom of a question I had. I got a call back once they looked into it the next day.
But make a pot of tea and find a comfy seat while you are in the phone queue, it’s a long wait when I called last year!

rainbowunicorn · 01/02/2025 20:03

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 19:19

@rainbowunicorn you have given a lot of advice on this thread. Are you able to confirm please that you are a registered independent financial adviser or are an actuary working in the pensions industry please?

What has that got to do with anything? If you take the time to actually go on to the government website, all the inormation is on there. It is just a case of reading and understanding. You don't have to work in the industry to understand, you just have to be able to process the information.

RosesAndHellebores · 01/02/2025 20:07

rainbowunicorn · 01/02/2025 20:03

What has that got to do with anything? If you take the time to actually go on to the government website, all the inormation is on there. It is just a case of reading and understanding. You don't have to work in the industry to understand, you just have to be able to process the information.

I have. I don't agree with some of what you have ventured.

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