When will the interest rate go down?

[PayingItRight]

Can anyone speculate on when the BOE interest rate will go back down?

I've just took out a tracker mortgage

This is what the Guardian says

The 0.5-point increase was forecast by City analysts, who expect the Bank to raise interest rates again to 4.5% in the spring before a series of cuts next year brings the Bank rate back to 3.5%.

www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/bank-of-england-raises-uk-interest-rates-to-4

likely to go up again, then stabilise, then go down but not by loads.

I'm no expert on mortgages but my mortgage advisor told us they were artificially low post covid and need to be around 3.5 to 5.5%.

I don't they will for at least 5 years, if at all. 5% is a more realistic figure for long term interest rates in the UK

Well, obviously, when we've all stopped flinging money about because we're not paying enough interest and have too much spare cash.🙄

If you look at the historical data you will see it’s likely that they won’t go down at all - 4% is still much lower than the long term average.

Not convinced they will any time soon. I think they’ve probably got another 0.5% to go up and will stay there for a while.

That's what I think, too.

Rates have been abnormally low for a long time.

Yes they will....but not for long.

Can you elaborate?

For what reason?

Because I'm curious why you think they will go down but not for long.
Interest rates impact all of us and I want to understand the logic people use when they make predictions about them.

Just gone up to 4.25% today.

Interestingly, Nationwide have announced some mortgage rate reductions today!

Inflation has stayed higher than predicted, if that continues then the interest rate will not be reduced

I think and hope it will stay at around its current rate for some time to come. There are many more savers than borrowers, and the rates have been far too low for far too long.

I think 4-5% is the new normal and is historically what they were.

The very low interest rates were the anomaly.

Interest rates have been artificially low since the GFC in 2008, and although the resultant asset price inflation was great for the safely salaried middle classes, it widened inequality and priced a whole generation out of the housing market. There are also strong causative links between artificially low interest rates and low productivity which is obviously something the UK suffers from and is bad for our economy overall.

My view is that the 14 period of low or even negative interest rates was an aberration of history and that they are now at a normalised level and may have to rise still. It makes my mortgage more expensive and it's obviously been a shock for the middle classes, but for society as a whole, normalisation is a good thing.

Bbc news article yesterday was saying think prices will peak in Summer. The problem with long term forcast is things like pandemics, wars and natural disasters do happen but aren’t predictable to a smaller time frame.