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So in response to the Independent headline about a recession being imminent...

11 replies

FlllightAttendant · 19/01/2008 12:07

...what actually happens in a recession? I remember we had one years ago but was too young to really notice the impact (honest!)

I am wondering if now would be a good time to move house, or sell valuable possessions (I don't have too many!)or alternatively stay put and not move?

Just interested really.

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JudgeNutmeg · 19/01/2008 12:14

Recession = No more Boden bags.

Seriously though, the last recession was shite. Higer unemployment, higher interest rates, higer inflation so prices shot up whilst pay stagnated. Lots of people lost their homes or had negative equity.

The best advice is not to panic. Don't over commit yourself with a humungous mortgage. Get rid of credit where you can and try to have a cash savings buffer. Moneysavingsexpert.com is an excellent place for advice.

I think that spending needs to slow.right.down if we are to avoid a replay of the 80's.

Lauriefairycake · 19/01/2008 12:18

Lots of jobs are lost in vulnerable industries - in the last recession in the early 90's my boss stopped working in IT cos he couldn't get a contract and drove a cab for a year. Service industry jobs also vulnerable because people spend less - so shop assistants, waitresses, stock pickers, lots of other service jobs. House prices fall.

Growth becomes zero so you get a stagnant period where certain technological advances aren't made.

I think the underly factors aren't really there for a deep recession though i do think house prices will correct - if you can afford your mortgage long term (maybe tied into fixed rate) then it's ok but people like me with wavery equity and needing to sell becuase of job moving are very vulnerable to even a slight downturn - this should be evened out by the house we bought but we don't want to buy right now and move into rented. In general there is lower confidence in house buying so getting in a chain can be really horrendous if you need to sell.

FlllightAttendant · 19/01/2008 12:22

Thanks a lot girls. My parents are the ones thinking of moving. I am too, but will only be renting...not sure if this is a good idea or not, as the 'new' house would cost more to rent, however I am on benefit so presumably my income would stay the same-ish?

I'm nearly paid off my overdraft but have an outstanding loan of about £4,00 which I'm not sure how to get shot of quicker. I was planning to start saving separately in a higher interest account once the O/d is paid off, then use that to pay off the loan faster iyswim. But it's a fixed rate loan so shouldn#t be affected too much either, is that right?

I'll pass on your advice to mum and dad about moving.

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FlllightAttendant · 19/01/2008 12:24

Sorry for all the questions! Am useless with economics

and that was meant to say 4,000

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MrsTittleMouse · 19/01/2008 14:38

Check the terms and conditions on your loan very carefully. Sometimes there are penalties for paying it off early, so you need to factor that in when deciding which saves you the most money - paying it off early or using the money to save in a savings account.

alfiesbabe · 19/01/2008 14:52

As JudgeNutmeg says, the last one was shite. Basically, what a recession will mean is you carry on working your arse off but have bugger all to show for it. In the late 80s/early 90s, interest rates went up and up and up.... I certainly remember 12% being the norm for a while! Utter misery. And while you were paying a huge mortgage, the value of your house was plummeting. Living expenses were generally higher.... everything seemed to cost more than it does now. Doom and gloom really. I'm not sure that a full scale recession will happen again, but I agree that house prices seem to be stablilising.

FlllightAttendant · 19/01/2008 16:21

Thankyou so much for all your help.

Boden satchels indeed

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noddyholder · 19/01/2008 16:45

Prices are rising for everything day to day like food energy travel etc.In the last recession inflation was sky high and it seems to be heading that way again.I think everyone using their house equity as a cash machine has kept the econmy going over the last few years but that is all finished now and banks just aren't lending like they were House prices will fall to more affordable levels and then the whole thing kicks off again.It was obvious this couldn't continue but could be very grim indeed.My parents bought a house in the last recession for 37k and the owners had bought it 3 yrs earlier for 65 so it can happen.Belts tightening everywhere atm i have really noticed the price increases in bills as I am renting and there is a key meter and it is so expensive and keeps running out.Bloody Gordon Brown adn his miracle economy

FlllightAttendant · 19/01/2008 18:02

One thing, Noddyholder - I would try and get your meter changed to an ordinary quarterly one (or DD) if you are renting longer term, as the key ones cost one hell of a lot more IIRC (had one years ago).

Also if you are able to, switch to someone like Atlantic who are much cheaper than most others I've heard of.

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noddyholder · 19/01/2008 18:15

Thanks we are hoping to buy soonish and so won'tbother here but will look at atlantic for the new house Thanks xx

needmorecoffee · 19/01/2008 18:17

so this is a totally bad time to be having to buy my elderly mother a bungalow. Sigh. Me and my sister are stretching ourselves to the limit for this but there's no council warden places available for a 73 yo frail woman
In 2 years time, when its has plummeted in price no doubt she will pop her clogs and leave us with it.

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