Pay early repayment charge to secure new fixed rate deal?

[MissPoldark]

Our current fixed rate deal is due to end next year. With the expected trajectory of interest rates I’ve been looking into whether it’s worth paying the early repayment charge to secure a new fixed rate deal this year, while there are still some decent deals around.
The best mortgage rate available in 2023 would need to be at least 3% in order to make this worth doing.
The mortgage would be portable so I don’t think it would prevent us moving house should we decide to.
The numbers involved aren’t huge - if the best mortgage rate available next year is 4%, we would save approx £2000 over 5 years by fixing early.
(roughly , each 0.5% increase in the rate adds around £1000 to the cost over 5 years)

Has anyone done anything similar?
I’m aware this is a complete gamble either way.

It might be worth contacting your lender and seeing if they can arrange a cost effectiveness call. They can take a look into the figures properly and see if it worthwhile paying the ercs now in comparison to your payments and interest over the rest of your fixed rate

I’m not sure there’s really much more they’d be able to tell me though as I’ve already worked out the figures based on different scenarios.
I think it’s really more a question of whether it seems to be a worthwhile gamble.

Did you include the loan value after fix end in the calculations? I found in our case there was a considerable difference since we're early in our mortgage term.

The predictions I've seen seem to suggest we'll have an interest rate just over 2 by 2023. That's still not huge and could well mean you can secure a mortgage rate below 4%, so I would stay put in your shoes. But as always the future is unpredictable!

Yes, I’ve considered the LTV - it won’t have changed enough to make any difference to the deals available to us.

We’ve just done this. Was a no brainer in our case.