Fixed reward rates with Barclays

[Mummsnett]

Bought house 2 years ago in Aug, in my name, on a fix which expires end of July.
I'm with Barclays so the earliest I can access their reward rates is 2nd May. Looking to move to a five year fix.

The five year fixed reward rate with Barclays was 1.63% on 4th Feb and has risen to 2.04% on 17th Feb, an increase of 0.41%. I'm trying to guess how quickly the 2.04% rate is going to keep increasing.

Other lenders won't lend the full amount I need (childcare costs affecting this).

As the rates rise it becomes more unaffordable for me, which is incredibly frustrating because if I could fix with Barclays now I'd be comfortable.

Majorly panicking it's going to get to 2nd May and rates will have reached 4%+ and I'm going to have to sell my house.

Broker is searching market on my behalf.
Single parent so no partner to add to application.

Thoughts on how likely it is that 4%+ will have been reached by May?

Bump

HI @Mummsnett sorry you are so worried and things are tough.

The previous Bank of England rate change was 3 Feb and I know it took HSBC a couple of weeks to then put their rates up. There is only going to be one more BOE rate change between now and early May, on 17 March. The one after that is 5 May. So you only need to navigate one more BOE rate change at most.

It does seem likely that rates will go up again on 17 March, based on the way they voted last time and inflation. But again likely to just be 0.25% - which would presumably lead Barclays to put through a similar change to last time, so taking the rate to around 2.45% from what you have said. Even if they jumped 0.5% it would still be likely Barclays would be under 3%.

On that basis it seems very unlikely it will get close to 4% or more in that time.

That said, can you pay a charge to move rate early? That’s what I have done with HSBC based on the numbers, to move to a five year fix. I had to pay to do it as it was before the expiry of my last fix, but the maths made it worth it.