Dublin MumsNetters - do you think property prices will go up or down in the next few years?

[bran]

We will probably be moving back to Dublin in the next 3 years and I was wondering how people who are living in Dublin felt the market was moving. The advice from my mother is to buy a house as you can't lose with property, but then her experience is of continuously rising prices. She thinks it wouldn't be a bad idea to buy now in Dublin (sell our London property and rent) in case prices continue to rise at a rapid rate. But I remember the UK house price crash of the late 80's/early 90's and I feel that Dublin prices are now at an unsustainable level and if they drop a little the market will lose confidence and there could be a similar crash, and so it would probably be worth our while renting for a while when we move back.

I've been saying that Irish house price growth was too rapid for about 7 years now and I've been wrong because it's just kept on rising. But now my brother has been telling me that quite a few houses are failing to sell at auction and are coming back on the market for tender at prices below the auction guideline.

What do you think? (Sorry, very dull I know.)

Think I'd hold off Bran. The market isn't sustainable. Although like you I have been saying that for years! Really regret not buying a few years ago - and a few years before that - and a few years before that!!! DH was badly bitten in London in late 1980s so is avers to property!

Was home a couple of weeks ago and seem to remember reading that there will be a US economic slow down whihc will effect Irish property prices. Don't ask me why!

I know what you mean BB, I try not to think about how rich I would be now if I could only have seen the future 10 years ago. We were extremely lucky with the UK property crash in that we almost bought just as the market was at it's height but then decided to wait until after our wedding. Some of our friends were in dire straits back then.

The think about the Dublin market is that the stamp duty is so high (10%) that I don't want to move after I've bought. I want to buy somewhere near the secondary school that I want ds (now only 2) to attend and stay there at least until he's finished school and if prices come down it will mean a big difference in the type of house I could buy.

Why are you beastly by the way? It's not full moon yet is it?

Interest rates have just gone up again only .25% but that'll be enough to push some over the edge.
It'll happen in the UK too just a matter of time, the USA and Australia are already suffering.

Have you read the book "The Pope's Children"? (can't remember the author...) - it's a fairly light hearted look at the economy of Ireland over the past two decades. Definitely would recommend it to anyone thinking of moving back (or anyone like me who is wondering how things changed so much since they left!). I think he reckons the house price rises are not sustainable, but then again as you point out, people have ben expecting a crash for a few years and it hasn't materialised....

I so wish I had bought a house back home 10-15 years ago.....

bran the houses that arent sellng at auction are massive high priced ones anyway. and upon closer inspection in one of the sunday papers last week, it actually detailed the ones in question and at least 3/4 sold after auction for a bit higher. i was surprised at that. i think the buyers are cautious at aunctions now as it went mad but they are still willing to pay for those deluxe houses in ranelagh over to sandymount and dalky area.
meanwhile houses in large estates are selling provincially quite well. in the dublin suburbs there probably is caution with these as they are over priced. but get your brother to send oyu over the property pages for the independent and irish times and you ll see whats selling where.

where developemtns had the social housing aspect, ie they had to build houses at affordable prices for housing list people, alongside the "regular" priced houses have found problems but this is in certain places of course. in some developments the builders had the option not to build social house and pay duties to the council.

plus their is talk of stamp duty being rejigged next budget (its not 10%, its incremental depending on price), have you already owned in ireland or will you be first timers?

buda if the economic slow does happen next year its thought that it will affect irish selling into the US therefore its more likely to hit bluecollar workers than white with perhaps factory closures. again its going to affect different parts of the market and levels.

bran , anywhere thats desirable is always going to have a cachet to it and those have bought into to those areas in the past few years are not intending on moving.

what part is the school you are thinking of?

Thanks KTeepee, I've found that book on Amazon and I'll get it when I next do an order.

Hermykne, does it make a difference to the stamp duty if we are first time buyers in Ireland (which we are)?

Unfortunately I'm quite limited with the areas that I want to live in as dh doesn't drive and I don't want to be his full-time chauffeur. So I would like to be within walking distance of a Luas station and a CofI church (as dh is a churchgoer) and ds will be going to Wesley in Ballinteer. My parents live in Sandyford and I would like to be reasonably close to them. At the moment I'm considering all along the Luas line from Rathgar/Dartry to the Leopardstown side of Stillorgan and Foxrock. If prices come down a bit then I think my choice would be Dartry/Rathgar.

I'm hoping that we will be in a strong position if the interest rates go up a bit as we are mortgage free in London so we would have a relatively small mortgage in Dublin.

One thing I've noticed from the odd time I get the Irish Times (the property section is on Thursday - you should be able to get it in London, Bran) is how expensive period houses are compared to here. We live in an expensive part of the SE and I doubt we would be able to afford a similar house if we lived in Dublin. I wouldn't object to living in a modern house but I would hate to live in one of those vast new estates in Co. Meath or wherever (no offence to those who do!) I would guess that as there is a limited supply of period houses in the Dublin area, they should hold their value pretty well - maybe something to consider?

Holding it's value isn't too much of an issue I don't think as I probably won't move again for quite a while. I slightly prefer modern as long as the rooms are large, I used to live in a period house in London and it was generally more upkeep and less secure than my current modern flat. My main priority is privacy, I really don't want to live in a cul de sac where all the neighbours pop in and out of each others' houses and you can hear your neighbours tv through the party wall.

I was thinking of something like this (which failed to sell at auction last week), or this . This one would be my ideal, but I could only afford it if the market dropped by 25-30%.

at those prices - but the houses do look lovely! The most desirable houses in the most desirable roads where I live would be nowhere as expensive!

I know the prices are astonishing aren't they. I mean I knew that they were high in a kind of detatched way, but when we decided we were going to move back and I started looking seriously at myhome.ie and daft.ie I kept wanting to put my head between my knees and breath deeply.

That Northside/Southside thing is still raging strong in Dublin isn't it BB? I was talking about the move back to Dublin with a friend of my SIL who is not originally a Dubliner but now lives near Griffith Avenue and she got very irate and all but accused me of being a stuck-up snob because I didn't want to live Northside, even though I'd already told her all my family were Southside and I wanted ds to go to a particular secondary school.

I did wonder whether long-term renting might be the way to go, as houses seem to be much cheaper to rent than to buy, but I would worry about having to move every year or two.

bran i think you'll find what you want once you talk to all the auctionerrs etc for your area.
must link you to the stamp duty site.

oasis

Just another "shock" story; even on the northside prices are insane. Dh's cousin (the chief executive of a large financial company) and his wife recently moved back to Dublin from Edinburgh. Their house in Clontarf cost 1.6 million and they had to basically gut it, replacing the kitchen, electrical system, plumbing etc. It does have 5 bedrooms and a nice garden but is still semi-detached because... "they can't afford a detached house!" Insane!
This is why we live in Canada now

Hi herm! How are things? As you can see I'm still interested in Dublin housing issues... can't resist! I'm 26 weeks along now, and huge...

well how are you doing? 26 weeks!!! hows everyone. F has measles my thread caused a bit of a toodoo! he had mmr but is 1 of the 10% who get it. E hasnt got it and X fingers wont.
both at preschool, i was terribly upset initially after F went but now i love it, the free time to think is great.
have you settled back home - i am sure you love it having your family so close.

dublin house prices! mad arent they. come 50miles north and see what 1.6milion will get you!

Thanks for that link Hermykne, it looks as though we will be paying the full 9% because of the price bracket we are looking at (I think I did know it was 9% but had rounded it up in my mind because it makes it easier to work out total cost).

Skerriesmum, have you bought thousands of acres in the Rockies for the price of a Dublin home then? I really liked Canada when I visited, all that wide open space, but I don't think I could take the winters. Clontarf is expensive isn't it, but it always has been, in a way I don't think Clontarf, Sutton or Howth are really either North or South, but an entirely separate (and expensive) part of Dublin.

I have always thought it more East/West (but I'm from Sutton)

Can totally understand why you woudl want to be southside if all your family are there - just a shame it is so expensive. Although i am from Coolock if I moved back I would like to be in Clontarf (just to annoy the mother of an ex who thought I wasn't good enough for her son as I was from Coolock!!!) or Malahide or maybe Sutton.

It is so scary. Friends have just moved back from overseas and paid over a million for a tiny cottage in Malahide - it has great view though and planning permission for the bottom of the garden.

Not being from Dublin I am a bit vague about all the Dublin areas - but I read recently that Malahide is the wealthiest/most expensive place in Ireland now - can't remember which . I know of someone who moved to there from here recently, was a bit sceptical when she said you need to spend 1M euro on a family house - but I am a bit more believing now! Think I will be staying put for now!

and you know what kteepee malahide is so over built now, the place is crammed with posh people as well as strung out try to make enough money for this lifestyle types too. not that special.

I have to say that if we were to move back I would try to go near Limerick which feels more like how Dublin used to be, and there is a chance of getting both a reasonable priced house and really good schools.
I think that if you come from Dublin you'd be unlikely to switch sides, more so nowadays as the traffic is so bad. I could never live on the southside, even though I have lots of friends there, unless it was further out in say Bray or Greystones. If you are considering Northside, they are buiding lots of houses on the old Baldoyle racecourse, and the Dart will have a new stop at Baldoyle.
I love Clontarf, but the prices are crazy.

LOL at Madchad thinking there is an East/West divide in Dublin. Where do you perceive the divide to be? The East Link bridge perhaps? (ie an East/West split between Howth and it's hinterland and the rest of Dublin)

My Mum has been saying that the traffic is getting even worse in Dublin, which is another good reason to try and live on the Luas, so I don't have to drive to drop ds off at school. Hopefully wherever we eventually buy there will be a primary school within walking distance.

The line would be the DART line of course!
Seriously though, my mum says the DART is useless these days, packed and often delayed,I am sure the LUAS would be much better.
BTW, have you heard of BOPs-my youngest sister has been educating me, rife in Belfield apparently.

is it absolutely necessary for you to live in dublin? it's not the same city it used to be, it's smelly and traffic congested and bloody expensive. we moved to dublin 3 years ago and moved away again a year later as we couldn't stand it.

i'm clueless about property prices at the minute as until dp and i can actually afford to buy i just don't want to know...... personally i how it does crash but something tells me it wont, simply because people will pay these ridiculous amounts of money. they don't quetion it anymore.