Help ....I need to juggle these figures to say the right thing?

[Katymac]

I need to prove that we need another nursery in my area
I'll do it with round figures

Total children under 2 550
Children 2-4 600

Providers (Childminders & Nurseries) 130 (with 100 vacancies)

But Unfortunately there are certain problems with these statistics:

? A vacancy could be full-time (40 hours) or as little as a Tuesday afternoon.
? A ?place? could be made up of up to 4 or 5 children.
? These vacancies are for the age range ?Birth to 5 years? so how many are for under 2?s is not clear.
? There is a natural division between parents that would like Nursery care and those that would like care provided by a childminder. This cannot be reflected in these figures.
? As Childminders have to include their own children in these figures ? it cannot be assumed that a provider will supply 1 under 1 place and a total of 3 under 5. However I have done this for calculations.

And of these some will be cared for either by parents or by informal care arrangements (eg grandparents)

HELP/HELP/HELP (as Katymac runs screaming to the hills)

I think there is a need for the nursery - but how do I 'stack' it up

ask th person who compiled the stats re vacancies they may have supplimental data

No - they say the figures are flawed as that is all the information the gov require

Anyone any ideas?

Someone must do this for a living...surely

there must be someone out there.....

no idea but bumping this up for you

Thanks Littleducks - I can do math til it's coming out my a* but interrpreting stats - I'm so thick

Katymac - I think you need to start another thread with a more direct title - doesn't bubble (bubble99?) own a nursery? she might have gone through similar process to this.

I wonder if you might have to run two (or more) sets of statistics to get the range of need in your area. For example, you could assume that all the vacancies were 40 hours for 5 children, and run with that. Then you could work it out as though the vacancies were say 10 hours for 1 child.

If nobody else has got any better facts, they will struggle to dispute any conclusions you draw. You should use some of your conclusions to support your case - ie, that not all parents wanting childcare will want to use childminder just because that's where the vacancies are...and statistics are potentially flawed because not all childminders will want to be 'full' all the time...

Also, try phoning a sample of nurseries/childminders and asking about vacancies on their busiest days (assume it's Tues/Weds/Thurs across the land!). If you can demo that vacancies are likely to be on Mon and Fri, then you can also demo the latent demand....

Good luck (incidentally, not stalking honest, but how did you get on with the planners?)

Cr*p - but thanks for asking

They haven't been to visit the site (well they hadn't last monday) and when I rang to ask if they had been - they asked me to not pester them & that they would ring to tell me when they had been.

They haven't rung

OK
You haven't included nannies and other informal (ie.family care) either.
who is this for? You need to consider your audience imo and think aobut whether they have a preferred format.

Agree about if you can't get anything more detailed then neither will anyone else be able to! (always handy when compiling stats!). You can make assumptions and base your document/cals on those assumptions, so you could say something like

Assumptions:
It is assumed that x percentage parents of under 5 yos in y area will use some form of childcare, based on (say) govt stats that show x%age of parents work oth
The places (or hours) currently available are based on x hours
and whatever else you want to put in

If you're setting it up as a spreadsheet best to set it up so if you change numbers of children/hours then the totals re calculate.

Hope there's something in there that helps.

you could try turning it on it's head so to speak - have you got any definite bookings for your nursery as yet - if you have or even interest than this coudl be used to justify another nursery in the area.

Also can you identify how many children can be catered fro by the existing provision of care. rather thn current vacancies -

Am I to take from you op taht you are catering soly for under 2's or will be under 5's in which case you need to factor in non-nursery /cm'd children who would lkie to use nursery voucher swith you

I have tried to work it out but it appears some data is missing for example toatl number of places available -

a sample of what current vacancies ar availbe would strengthen your case if these are limited

can you find out the national average for children cared for ny nurseries ao you can use this to calculate available children in your area

Katymac - personally (err, I'm a planner!) I think it's time to start pestering again! You need an idea of how long they consider it reasonable for you to wait. And if you're not satisfied with the answer, try to separately get phone no of their boss and be honest - I asked for a sv on x date, that was cancelled because of y and now I can't have a visit before z. Alternatively, can you get a councillor interested enough - planners nearly always have to jump when a councillor says so

Ok the providers are all childminders (as no local Nursery takes under 2's) so allowing for their own children (who are included in the total figure) that's 3 per provider

There are 100 vacancies (but whether F/T or P/T is unknown)

I'll look for the national average of children at nursery

I will (might) be offering 0-5 so taking Nursery vouchers - BUT will only get set up funding for under 2's - so they are the important figures

Jamiesam - this is the initial "We'll have a look and decide whether or not you can apply for planning permission" type visit

I don't want to annoy him cos if he says no I'm stuffed

ah - gently gently catchee monkey? I can see that you want to be diplomatic and not get planners backs up. Have you written in with some details/plan and ask for a sv and meeting? Most (well, all i think) Council's have committed to answering letters within a certain period of time, generally 14- 28 days. Don't always achieve, but harder to make excuses if they haven't met their own target...

I emailed him on 14th July

Would it be reasonable to email him again to say we are away on holiday W/C 19th August and that I will only be contactable on my mobile...or is that pushy?

Katymac, I think you've been very patient with him, do get in touch!

I will

Still no help with these stats tho'