Are unsubscribed primary schools to be avoided?

[Laupnc]

I’m moving back to London in August after living in Italy temporarily for a year and a half. My daughter will start Year 1 in September. Since we are applying for an in-year admission, I have been contacting primary schools in the areas where we are considering buying or renting a property: West Dulwich, Crystal Palace, Gipsy Hill, Tooting, and Muswell Hill.

Some schools—though not many—have told me they have one or more places available for Year 1 in September, while others have a waiting list. Most of the undersubscribed schools seem good on paper based on statistics like academic results, so I don’t understand why they are undersubscribed. What could be the reason for this?

I am trying to book school tours to get a better understanding. Any opinions? Are undersubscribed schools to be avoided? None of the schools I’m considering are faith schools.

Probably because birth rate has dropped and population of school age children in London has decreased.

They may be undersubscribed because of low/declining birth rate in the area, and/or because lots of other excellent schools locally so parents have plenty of choice.

Yes it's low birth rates and people moving out of London.

Thank you all! So I should not be too concerned? 🤔

My friend is a schools governor in the borough of Southwark and tells me a few schools have closed and talk of some merging. Their school even has 2 year groups sharing one teacher because they are under subscribed. Cost of renting is pushing families out of certain areas.

Having spaces to accommodate in year admissions doesn't necessarily mean that a school is generally undersubscribed. It might just be that a family have left and other people who were on the waiting list have decided that their children are settled where they are and it's not worth the upheaval of moving, especially if there are several decent schools in the area. The secondary school my DC went to is always massively oversubscribed for year 7, but people moving into the area do sometimes get places higher up the school if they happen to get lucky that someone has moved away and the place hasn't yet been taken up.
I might be a bit concerned if a school was half empty, but the odd vacant place here and there wouldn't particularly concern me, especially in a big city life with a fairly mobile population. If you're happy with a school otherwise I don't think I would worry too much about it.

It's happened to many primaries in London, bigger drops in birth rates than expected.

@Laupnc ideally you want a school with a good number of pupils due to the current funding model.

www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly559jnd2zo.amp

Yes, good point. I guess look at the capacity percentage is a good indicators. Most of the schools were at like nearly 100% capacity

What specific schools have told you they have a place?

London has a mobile population: any places currently available probably won’t be in August, while other schools may then have vacancies.

A few years back I got my kid into a great school because it had recently extended to a two class per year set up and not yet filled up. Just good timing on my part.

So I have checked again on locrating and the schools that have places are under capacity. One of those is even at 68% capacity, which is extremely little. I would avoid it. The school is Paxton primary. The other schools are all at least at 90% + capacity

Avoid those with mixed age classes, locally in NW London it’s an indicator of falling numbers

yes avoid somewhere with 68% capacity as unfortunately it will likely reduce further.

Not necessarily, not in London but our kids school is undersubscribed and it’s a great school. Birth rate dropped round here last few years so basically is easier to get into the good schools than it was

I work in education, the current funding model is based on head count so falling numbers are not a good thing and will have an impact.

We're in zone 2 north London and the most popular schools are still as hopelessly oversubscribed as ever, there's no hope of getting a place especially the ones that appear on "top state primary schools" lists. The birth rate is falling but population density is high so even with lower numbers applying, there will always been keen families further away filling up the waiting lists. You'd only have a chance of getting in one of those if you moved on the same street and someone happened to leave at the right time (which is rare as they usually have a small PAN and parents won't give up a good state place unless they really have to).

There are some good state schools which used to be more popular and sometimes oversubscribed, and have spaces now - those have generally fallen a bit out of favour due to changes in head and maybe a change in demographics, but still decent schools, just not the really sought after ones. Those would be OK and in the past you would have felt lucky to get a place there.

We have had a few schools close/merge in our borough, and they have always been fairly obvious candidates for closure - consistently undersubscribed even when birth rates were higher, and often religious schools. Some of them have had tiny class sizes for years which is unsustainable, and that's something to avoid.

I live in the area you are moving to. Because of thr cost of housing, job opportunities, and other social issues in our area (rents as well as buying is horrendously expensive, as is childcare) people from working and middle classes are moving away or deciding to have less children. I only had one because of the expense. In Southwark I believe two primaries have closed down though it could be more because there wasn't enough children to sustain them.

It's very much a shame and the Mayor of London doesn't seem to care about the issue.

Problem is London is so expensive that many families are pushed out and those that remain are high income earners who send their kids to private school