If you access the primary school admissions info for this year you will see that in 2009 they had something like 11 more places for non siblings than in 2008 and that equated to an increase in distance of 0.07 of a mile!
It's not all doom and gloom though. In the borough in 2009 at first offers there were, iirc, 40-odd families who were not offered one of their preferred schools. By the start of Sept this had been whittled down to 8. God knows what happened to those 8, but that is at least a much smaller number. The others can't all have gone private - there are not that many local private schools!
My approach has been to put down schools to which I would be happy to send my child. If you live in a black hole (as I think Crescent Rd may be, although it's not that far from Alexandra) you may well not be offered a place at any school on first offers, but that does not mean one will not materialise by September.
Also, bear in mind that the oversubscription figures include, I believe, second, third and fourth preferences (Rhodes had a total of 250-ish applications, which will include the 60 successful ones, others who decided to go private, moved or whatever). I put a school as my 4th preference which I know DD won't get a place at, but I felt I needed to choose 4 and it is one to which I would be happy to send her.
It's difficult but tbh there is no guarantee of getting into any school unless you live virtually at the school gates.
Oh, and you might also want to check out Campsbourne. As the crow flies it is not all that far (although perhaps a PITA to get to since you go through the park) but I have heard on the grapevine that it is improving.