Whittonmum I would say that a true black hole is where parents receive a letter on allocations day that says that there is no school place at this stage for their child. That has been happening for decades at primary level, most recently in East Twickenham, Hampton and Twickenham Green. Now it has happened for the first time at Secondary level on the Surrey side. It is a miserable experience for parents and children who have to go to Nursery / Primary and hear all the parents who are looking forward to taking up their school places whilst they face continued uncertainty that any place will come up before 1 September, and one year that did not happen and Reception children inb East Twickenham didn't start until Christmas and then in a satellite church hall. The uncertainty might end when a place comes up at a distant less popular school eg Heathfield Junior School in Whitton for Twickenham Green parents, Buckingham for Hampton parents. mum posted statistics that showed most parents offered Heathfield who did not make it a choice rejected the place and there were letters to the papers from Twickenham Green parents who were considering home ed because Heathfield was simply logistically impossible with toddlers in tow. If parents are very lucky if a waiting list place does not materialise the Council may lay on a bulge class in a local school. As highlighted before the side effect of this is that parents find other options and cease to be the Council's problem which has worked well for the Council and left it with the highest proportion of pupils in private education in outer London.
However Turing was never addressing a realised black hole. It was addressing the fact that Council forecasts showed that Twickenham and Hampton Academies would, even on very conservative forecasts of demand, fill up by 2016 without a new Free School coming on stream (that was always included in Council forecasts) and that a black hole would emerge in the Fulwell area in the area most distant from existing schools (again this was acknowledged by the Council). Without Turing and the extra places laid on temporarily at the outstanding community schools and RPA, even with the fact that TA and HA have continued to have problems and be less popular with parents, then it would be an actual black hole.
I have every sympathy with Whitton parents who would not choose to send their children to academies which have a non standard educational strategy, but Whitton parents can only claim to face a black hole in terms of places at a good bog standard community school, they do not face no choice of a school place at all.
Turing gets it from Whitton activists both ways, either they do not want Whitton parents or they are undermining Twickenham Academy, plus Whitton don't want them at all because it will cause traffic chaos. So given all the political pressures and the possibility that who knows but the Conservative establishment may have a white rabbit of a site in it's hat, a fudge of some sort is inevitable.