Regarding whether it's a blip, there's a clear trend towards it becoming more difficult to get into St Philips and other local schools.
It's true that 2011 was a difficult year, with a cut-off distance of 0.251 miles, but only 4 catchment children were denied a place, and as you mentioned there was plenty of capacity at other local schools, including Ridgefield and St Matthews.
In 2012 everyone got in.
In 2013 all catchment children got in, but nobody from outside of catchment. The cut-off distance of 0.455 miles was almost the whole catchment.
In 2014 the published cut-off distance was 0.665 miles but this was misleading as the last pupil admitted got in on religious grounds, and the true distance within catchment was 0.45 miles. There were 4 families denied a place, and no out of catchment places were available at St Matthews, Morley or Ridgefield that year.
For 2015 the cut-off distance was 0.126 miles, with one statemented child, 24 catchment siblings, 16 Catchment and 4 religious. There were 15 in-catchment families who missed out. As I understand it some parents then turned places down and so the distance increased to 0.33 miles after the second round.
So, yes there were a fairly high number of siblings, but still just only half the number of places. The key point really is that there were 31 families without a special route into the school (religious, statement or siblings) and of these 16 got in and 15 didn't, hence the 50% figure I've quoted in my last post.
Reasons for the local squeeze on places include:
- The baby boom, fuelled by inward migration of younger inhabitants as older people have moved on.
- Home building, particularly along Cromwell Road, but also dotted throughout the area
- Romsey becoming a more popular area for families; this is linked to stagnating property prices after 2007 making it more difficult to sell up and move to areas like Milton Road with posher schools
- The St Philips Ofsted rating going up from Needs Improvement to Good last year
- Oversubscription at other local schools which were traditionally preferred over St Philips (i.e St Matthews and Morley)
Some of these are definitely permanent changes, and some will get worse.