a lot of Parents ... are very upset and angry to find themselves excluded and offered instead a school at the other end of the borough
Are you sure those parents have not now been offered a place at RPA? Perhaps you should redirect the FOI request specifically to RPA and enquire if they will offer another class?
they suspect LBRUT are expecting them to go quietly and spread out between whichever schools across the river have places
They might suspect that if you continually assert it. But the decision to offer places up to PAN rests with RPA.
I am a frankly confused as to why you feel so strongly that Surrey parents, especially Barnes parents have any less right to expect adequate provision than Middlesex ones, and should meekly accept that their fate is to have to seek creative out of borough solutions, move or go private?
You're attributing words that I did not say. I feel strongly that you should acknowledge the situation is less clear-cut this year with Turing House operating a separate admissions round, and while I believe in transparency, their justification for delaying the release of that information is logical because the situation will change quite radically in some areas once final acceptances are made. Otherwise, if you use it as a stick to beat LBRuT with, you could be misleading people in offering a picture that is more complex and has since changed.
Thinking about it, it would also apply to other new free schools close to Lowther like Fulham Boys School with random allocation within a 1.5 m catchment. This might have influenced RPA's more cautious approach this year. Perhaps you should also address your FOI to them and Turing as it might be critical to understanding the situation?
I've suggested that there are other nearer state alternatives than RPA and certainly than Twickenham, but that they were not within the LA's boundaries so it could not have offered them. But that I do think RPA's waiting list will move. I do not suggest families should move or go private in lieu of a place at RPA so do not to attribute that to me.
As I stated before, while 70% of Barnes ward choose to go private - and this statistic was gathered while RPA had spare places - the admissions process cannot distingush between those who are likely to depend on a state school and those fully intending to go private. But making provision for all these children would assume 70% surplus places which are not funded within a school's budget. Unfortunately this only becomes clear after offers have been accepted.
I gather that the private schools offer 'process' is stressful. Part of the reason is that they all make offers independently, resulting in some people having several offers at once, and others having none - some parents therefore have to wait for places given up by others. This stress and confusion is similar to reintroducing separate admissions routes in the state sector resulting in some parents having more than one available state place while others have to wait for them to reject one of them. This used to happen with church schools which was unfair. If the Conservatives claim free schools offer the best of the private sector, this aspect is not what I would have put at the top of the list.
At the same time, private offers are made before any state options are known. It is therefore likely that the majority of those going private have already been preparing for this. I know parents who last year took up a private place over an offer of RPA, seemingly at the last minute, so I know late applications to private schools can be successful. But I doubt that RPA's fortunes have reversed so dramatically that parents already with a selective private place, for which they have spent months tutoring, would have rejected it in favour of RPA.