Thanks bluestars - 1,742 applications is a bit lower than the 1913 in your figures, BayJay, I suspect because there are so many who leave country/move house/go private in KS2, especially from Y5/Y6. Those bare school leaver figures also need context, e.g.:
(a) how many places on offer?
Christ's 150
StRR 150
Grey Court 210
Waldegrave 216 (extra spaces available)
Teddington 240
Orleans Park 200
RPA 180
TA 180
HA 180
Turing House
TOTAL = 1706
(b) how many of those places usually go to out of borough residents?
I think I counted about 450 which IS a lot. About 150 at Grey Court, 30 at Teddington and Orleans Park, 70 at RPA, 200 at HA/TA. Kingston Academy might reduce that number.
(c) how many Richmond pupils go out of borough?
Not sure about that but I think it's about 200. About 100 going to grammars and faith schools, and 100 going to other borough comprehensives such as Heathfield (from Whitton) and Chiswick (e.g. from Kew/Barnes). There's always been a net import of pupils - StRR would have made some difference but so might Kingston Academy, and there's still a proportion reserved in Hounslow schools for Richmond pupils.
(d) How many are applying to the private sector and likely to give up a place in favour of a selective or popular independent?
I think from past figures about 20% leave the state primary sector to go to a private secondary. So that may be around 350 pupils. I've checked quickly and there are around 1400 places at the 12 most frequently name-checked independents in Hammersmith/Richmond/Kingston areas, the vast majority selective and for which parents may already have sat exams and paid deposits.
(e) How many might therefore be without a place initially, and how many might be turning places down in the next two weeks?
So I make it about 1,256 places left without Turing House and 1,406 with, sought by at least 1,192 pupils but potentially more of those switching from less selective privates. So although initially there may be some 50-60 unplaced pupils (unless some other schools offer more than their published admission number), in the end we are still likely to see unfilled places at some academies, and whether Turing House fills its places will depend on timing of announcements. It's unlikely parents would give up an existing offer, state or private, until they know where the location of Turing House will be.
I therefore see why Gareth Evans point out Turing House was to provide 'choice'. On the other hand, it's been nearly five years since the sponsored academies were taken over, and given the rate of progress so far, it's understandable why parents are impatient for that choice.