New Secondary Schools for Richmond 3

[BayJay]

Hello and welcome to the Mumsnet thread about Richmond Borough Secondary Schools. The discussion started in February 2011 in two parallel locations here and here.

In November 2011 the most active of those two threads, in Mumsnet Local, reached 1000 messages (the maximum allowed) so we continued the conversation here.

Now its May 2012 and that thread has also filled up, so the conversation will continue here ......

Hi Cat2405. You can get the 2012 offer data from the DfE website here. The council hasn't published any analysis of the numbers yet, so maybe Mumsnetters will get there first.

If you meant data relating to modelling of a hypothetical non-link situation for 2012, then I don't expect there are any plans to do that.

I find it odd that whether there is a "need" for a school seems to be being judged purely on whether there is a "need" for it in 2013, the first possible year that it could open, and not on whether there will be a "need" for it in the fairly short term future which could be 2014, 2015 or 2016. From what I have read about the RACC redevelopment plans in Richmond it doesn't seem at all clear that they will have done the building work there and have moved out of Clifden in time for Clifden to be converted back into a secondary school and ready to open in September 2013, although I suppose with only a limited intake of 150 they will be able to shift around the buildings more easily to the sound of drilling and hammering elsewhere on the site!

Would be interesting to see the admissions data for this Autumn but no doubt the Council still thinks that lots of children are going to drop out and go private like they are going to do in primary schools freeing up 170 places.

I have to say, all through this debate I've been considering priority of needs. With places reserved in Hounslow schools, and more places than there are resident Catholics in other nearby boroughs, I just couldn't see a need for the school. The main 'want' I can understand is for places in a nearby Catholic co-ed school.

I can't see how the council can deny that Clifden was bought to address needs though: 'Whether the school is Catholic or not it will help to address the need for more places in our borough for all and there is a growing need for more school places in the Twickenham area.' Lord True, 05/09/2011.

Thanks BayJay, but what I was really after was the specific figures for the LBRuT schools. Can we, for example, see in this year's application/admissions figures if the academies are rising in popularity with parents? Can we see if the figures match the forecasts/predictions made by the council? I'm a bit surprised that these figures haven't been published before the meeting this week, as they do seem quite relevant to the current issues.

The figures were published last year in the back of the secondary school admission booklet, which went online late June/early July 2011, IIRC. So we may have to wait until that time this year to be able to analyse them.

Cat2405, sorry, without looking at properly it I assumed that link gave school-level data, but you're right that its only LA level data.

Last year the council published the school-level stats for Scrutiny in April. That hasn't happened so far this year. There was no April meeting because of the upcoming election, and the May meeting was a special one for the Clifden Road issue.

A friend has sent me, by chance, the source for birth rate figures by borough: Births by birthplace of mother: 2010 18 May 2012 Intelligence Update 09-2012. It goes back to 2001, 10 years, a long time in the life of our fast changing metropolis. Here are:

Borough - 2010 2010 % Increase:
Richmond - 2394 2993 + 25%
Kingston - 1787 2312 + 29 %
Hounslow - 3134 4433 + 41 %

Half of this increase is in our primary schools already with the rest yet to come. None of it has yet reached our secondary schools.

You can see the figures for each year group, and the bulge to come in 2014, in DfE: Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics, January 2011. The January 2012 census figures are due in June. In the second Excel file under Table 9a, Local Authority tables, if I've worked it out correctly, numbers are as follows:

current year 7 (2011 entry) - 1705
current year 6 (2012 entry) - 1765
current year 5 (2013 entry) - 1750 (when Grey Court and academies PAN reduced)
current year 4 (2014 entry) - 1915 (this is when the bulge hits, no question)
current year 3 (2015 entry) - 1965
current year 2 (2016 entry) - 2105

muminlondon - These nos all too complicated for me . What does it mean in terms of how accurate is councils assertion that theres no need for new community secondary till 2017

Correction:

Borough - 2001 2010 % Increase:
Richmond - 2394 2993 + 25%
Kingston - 1787 2312 + 29 %
Hounslow - 3134 4433 + 41 %

JoTwick: we won't know how accurate the Council's forecast is until 2014 or 2105 at the earliest. For the Liberal Democrats, In July 2011 Cllr Malcolm Eady wrote: "We welcome the Council's proposal to purchase the Richmond Adult and Community College site in Twickenham for a new secondary school. The steadily rising birth rate will, in 3 to 4 years' time, result in the borough requiring a new secondary school . . ." i.e. to open in 2014 or 2015. At this time it is a matter of judgement which forecast is better.

Cllr Eady's detailed forecasts are available for study here.

The spike in Y7 numbers to 1,915 by 2014 coincides with a reduction to 1,530 places in existing secondary schools. The risk factors have been mentioned so many times. Were they addressed in the committee meeting? e.g.

(1) question mark over new school in north Kingston and this 'cushion' thing (about 300 currently go to other LAs - half to Catholic schools - but 450 come in from other LAs per year, with a net import of about 150)

(2) relying on pupils going private - in 2011 in-borough take-up of secondary places was 959 so about 32% of primary pupils must therefore have gone private or left the country (or some lived in other LAs in the first place)

(3) the council also assumes 100 free school places by 2013.

I only really know about Hampton and Teddington, but it seems that there will be even more children coming out of the primary schools in 2017 - 2019 as those are the years that have had emergency bulge classes on top of the permanent expansions. Are there any predictions available for those years yet? Even looking at Cllr. Eadie's predictions in relation to the schools I know I can see that the % transferring to in-borough secondary schools has gone up since 2010 by about 10% presumably partly as a result of parents feeling more confident about Hampton Academy and Teddington School and because of the recession.

"presumably partly as a result of parents feeling more confident about Hampton Academy and Teddington School and because of the recession"

And also because as catchments shrink it puts upwards pressure on house prices, resulting in less disposable income for spending on school fees.

People are really stretching themselves financially to buy homes in the borough these days, and unless they're planning for private schooling from the outset, its simply unaffordable for most people.

Yes, there are already five more children from Yr. 6 transferring to local state secondary schools in 2012 from my daughter's primary than Cllr. Eadie's prediction for that school in 2016 with excellent improvements in secondary schools!

I think there is a big surge in people with toddlers moving out of inner London and stretching themselves to buy somewhere in the cheaper bits of the borough and they certainly can't afford private school fees on top of a big mortgage. Those families aren't even accounted for in the 25% increase in the birth rate.

Is the situation different in the Richmond area - Mortlake, Barnes, East Sheen etc? Are there any relatively cheap areas over there that could fill up and lead to a surge in demand for places at RPA?!

"Are there any relatively cheap areas over there"
Depends whether you mean in or out of the borough. Does Roehampton count?

I used to live with a cousin in Mortlake. Its much more expensive than Twickenham. DH and I bought our first property in Twickenham because it was relatively cheap, not because we were thinking about schools.

Prices have gone up a bit since then though .

I think Roehampton counts if it's in the RPA catchment area. Are there cheap places to buy in Roehampton? I've always got the impression that the far side of Richmond was much more expensive than, say, Hampton, Hampton Hill or Whitton, due to better train service into London but I'm not sure if that's still true.

I take it there are no predictions for secondary school places needed from 2017 onwards or you statistical geniuses would know about them? 5 years doesn't seem very far away in school planning terms if the preferred option for LB Richmond is a new build on a sufficiently large site (I believe it has to be about 3 acres?) that noone knows about yet (assuming 150 free school places somewhere and Clifden Road going Catholic in the meantime).

Lottie, RPA is right on the border with Roehampton (see map) so yes Roehampton is well within its catchment, and there is a lot of social housing nearby. However, the council is assuming that demand from across the borough boundary will decrease (see section 4.6.4 of this doc).

Richmond's Secondary school forecast goes up to 2020, as does the RISC counter-forecast, which uses slightly different assumptions to get a different outcome.

Thanks. 100 free school places seems an odd prediction now we know that it's either 75 chez the Maharishi or 150 at the New School for Twickers or both ie. 225 or possibly none. I would have thought a go ahead for the Maharishi school would cause devotees from elsewhere to move into Hampton seeking places for their children so that could boost overall numbers. But I suppose that if it's both the Council can argue that that's almost enough so no need for a community school in 2016. Except that their estimates of the number of children seeking places in 2019 will have to be adjusted in view of this year's surge in numbers wanting places at primary schools. Or maybe they think the recession will be over by 2019 so far more people will be going private again.

I wonder if this sort of reaction will have any influence on the Maharishi outcome.

Just posting a link to the webcast of tomorrow night's Cabinet Meeting where they're making the decisions about Sixth Forms and Clifden Road.

Also, here is the agenda for the meeting.

Not every part in Barnes, Mortlake, Sheen is expensive - certainly if that were the case, we would have not get in here. There are lot of parts with good value and people do make trade offs between property costs, size, commute time and travel costs. Anyway did not want to turn this into housing discussion!
When we were consulting on RPA, there were community members from all backgrounds. There is more than sufficient demand for good state secondary places in our local primaries. As RPA continues to make improvements and adds the new building and sixth forms, and gets parental buy-in, the places should fill up with kids from the local community.

"As RPA continues to make improvements and adds the new building and sixth forms, and gets parental buy-in, the places should fill up with kids from the local community"

Sounds like a good investment you made there gmsing, because when that happens (and I'm sure it will) the house prices are bound to go up.

Richmonds Equality Data Mapping Audit 2011 report www.richmond.gov.uk/equality_mapping_and_profile.pdf gives useful information on demographics by different areas in Richmond

I think a bit unfair of Richard Dawkins to compare Steiner schools to Maharishi schools as there are 35 Steiner schools in the UK and hundreds worldwide and they have been operating for years and are very popular. But Steiner schools do draw people into an area who want their children to go there and presumably, with only one other Maharishi school in Lancashire, a Maharishi school in Hampton would do the same. I don't know who makes the decision on Free Schools at the DofE but I expect it's probably a non-Guardian reading Tory politician?! Presumably if enough parents have said they want their children to go there it will be considered a choice that they are entitled to make and it will be considered that the questionmark over Maharishi philosophy has already been answered by funding the Lancashire school.

Pleased to hear that there are still affordable bits on the Richmond side. The sooner RPA fills up with children who live near it and want to go there the better it will be for everyone.

What happens if todays councils decision is then judged illegal? Is the council dissolved?

News of school building finance but no mention of new Kingston school. Do you think there will be an update in tbe meeting?