Brexit - stay overseas or return home?

[OlennasWimple]

Just wondering whether anyone else is thinking through the potential impact of Brexit on plans to return home.

DH's contract is coming to end soon, and although there is the option to extend (and we're pretty certain that his employer would do so without any problem), we had been intending to go back to the UK in late 2019. But...Brexit....

Obviously at this point no-one knows what is going to happen, and predictions range from "nothing is going to really change but food might be more expensive" to the UK turning into a wasteland out of Mad Max. I don't want to take the DC back to a country that is economically and politically defunct - if there is going to be a lost generation of kids who suffer, I don't want my DC to be among them

But the UK is home, and the DC want to come home....

Ideally we would watch and wait, but international moves dont' just happen overnight and we would need to decide before any medium term effects are apparent.

So confusing!

Life is carrying on as normal here tbh. Apart from the heatwave which some of us love and some hate (weather talk as usual). Boris has resigned, Theresa May still struggling as a leader, Jeremy pops up occasionally to rally the troops and at some point we might get a deal with the EU. I did vote remain but only because I couldn’t see an alternative without a lot of stress (not because I think we’re DOOMED without membership). Apart from that all is business as usual. Obviously we haven’t actually formally left the EU yet so who knows? All I can say is if our family were living abroad but wanted to come back I really can’t see a reason why they wouldn’t/shouldn’t . 🤷‍♀️

I'm in an EU country and Brexit prompted me to sort citizenship. So it solidified my plans in that sense.

My DH is an EU national although he lived and worked in the UK for 7 years so yes, Brexit has impacted our future potential plans in that it means we won't be moving to the UK, ever.

The UK isn't home to my kids though, it's just where mummy grew up and where grandma and grandpa live.

Assuming you have British passports and that your original plans worked in terms of exams for your dc (so not moving back just before GCSEs/Nationals) then I would leave it until late 2019 and see how things are.

We have absolutely no idea how things will work out right now so you are better off on the outside looking in.

We've just moved abroad (DH is British, DS dual national and I'm an EU citizen) and aren't quite clear about whether to move back before March next year (I've lived in the UK for the past 14 years but not sure what my status will be when we return...either before March 2019 or after).
I'm highly employable where we are now, DH not so much. I do worry about employment should we go back. (As in, would anyone employ me? I did all my training in the UK and im qualified there but would me suddenly being counted as an "immigrant" count against me? Being an EU national had never been an issue.) DS is little enough that we don't have to worry about schools. I guess we'll see what the actual Brexit brings. At the moment, we are ok where we are, although I'd love to move back in 2 or 3 years time. We still have our house there and I don't even want to consider selling it.

Odd - yes, we are all Brit cits (no handy Irish grandparents to get another passport). Education is a potential problem - DS is getting towards the point where we have to stay put in place for a few years, although I suppose in extremis we could look at sending him to boarding school (he is very keen, me not so much) to help smooth over that uncertainty

Brexit was a major reason for taking another move overseas for a few years. It really isn't clear if it is going to be a bit more expensive but a BINO situation or something really chaotic. For us it made sense to be out of the country while it unfolded. Our house and pension rights are still based in UK, but we have a few years before we reach a crossroads with DC education. I would be inclined to stay out of the country longer term, DH is keener on returning but it is too early to say which view makes more sense.

We're on the fence. We had vague plans to go back to the UK before Brexit happened (DH has dual US and EU passports, I'm on a UK one) but now we're likely looking at the prospect of a spousal US visa and all that entails, as I can't see DH's EU passport now giving us the ability to live and work there hassle free.

I don't want to live in the US long term tho but finding the right time to pull the trigger to move is tricky - I suspect it will be driven by DS schooling and the US political climate (and more likely, elderly parents on both sides)

I know we are lucky to have options...but it does make decisions even harder!

Trying to make informed decisions with so little information available isn't easy.

olennas exactly! 3 years ago if you'd have told me we'd be in this political climate both in the US and UK, I'd have laughed long and hard and said it was highly unlikely.

In a way its making it harder to plan as there's no concrete info to base decisions off and the US political climate is so up in the air, who knows what'll happen in the next 2-4 years

I feel like using a magic 8 ball for the decision, it's probably about as helpful tbh ;)

It sometimes helps to think about these things objectively. The facts about the UK and Brexit are clear - there is no scenario in which the UK government has been able to find a way for Brexit to be either a)neutral or b)positive for the UK economy. In a worst case scenario Brexit is forecast to cost 8% of GDP (not sure how long for). Also since the Brexit vote the UK economy has gone from being the fastest growing major economy to the slowest. There is an interesting article in the New Yorker from last week which gives a really helpful in-depth exploration of this. We are increasingly likely to exit under a no-deal scenario but possibly the EU may agree to a 'backstop' if only for the sake of Northern Ireland.

However, the macro economy and the micro economy are different things. Individual families can do well even in difficult economic circumstances - we often make the mistake these days of conflating the political and economic 'climate' with our own individual family's wellbeing. For example, Brexit has meant a drop in house prices in London and the SE, which is likely to continue if the economy goes down - this may be good news for you and your family. Likewise, if you and your DH have good secure jobs or employable skills in sectors that will remain stable notwithstanding the broader economic picture it could work for you. The key is not getting carried away with the negative vibes in the media etc and building you/your family's wellbeing on your immediate circumstances and an assessment of the facts as you are able to ascertain them.

However, there will always be an element of uncertainty and the best laid plans etc. The question I would ask you is - what does your gut tell you? You are probably empowered economic actors and will be able to make the best of whatever situation you find yourself in, but that all depends on your mental/emotional resilience in the face of difficult times (can you tell I've been coaching myself on this ). The one thing I think is sure is that the next 24 months or so will be uncertain, probably difficult, definitely not economically positive in the UK.

If you are in a good situation and it works for your kids in terms of education I'd stay where you are and see how things pan out post March.
(We'd be on the move if we didn't have a child going into the sixth form).

Yes and sorry, should add for full disclosure that the reason I'm on these boards is we are considering a move to Vancouver, for several reasons but one being I want to live somewhere fun, positive and forward looking if I can , but if we stay in the UK it won't be the end of the world...

DW and I have struggled with this. We're a US-UK family - DD and I are dual citizens, DW is a UK citizen with rights to work in the US (and she qualifies for citizenship, which she'll likely get soon.) I'd never move because of "political climate," because political climates change. When I moved to the UK, Bush had just been elected president and New Labour was still part of the whole "Cool Britannia" thing. When I moved back to the US, Obama was in his second term and Cameron was setting Britain on the road to austerity and, eventually, Brexit. Swings and roundabouts.
I am, however, more concerned by practical matters. And beyond the immediate aftermath of Brexit - stock up on beans, folks - I worry what the UK is going to look like for a generation. DD is 7 - will there be jobs when she's graduating uni? Will the UK be experiencing the sort of young people's unemployment numbers we associate today more with southern Europe? In practical terms, just how screwed is Britain? So far, I've yet to read a convincing case for "Don't worry, we'll be fine."
So for us, it looks like the US for the foreseeable. I hate 'Trump's America" with every fibre of my being - but that tragedy can be corrected. The fear with Brexit is that, in very practical terms, Britain can learn all the lessons it wants, but it'll be too late.

Well, based on current evidence the UK is pretty much at full employment. It has some of the world’s best universities, which isn’t likely to change in the near future and London is a global city. I’m as down about Brexit as anyone but I don’t think your children’s futures should be the deal breaker, esp. as you have shown through example that they live in a global jobs market and can travel to have the career they want as long as they learn the skills needed.

Children mainly need a) happy parents and b) supportive social networks to thrive (but I didn’t really have either and am broadly fine!) so I would ask myself whether I and my husband would be happier here or there and where my kids would have the best opportunity to build those networks and act on that basis.

@swimminguphill I agree with you that happy parents, support networks etc are the most important things. However those current good things you mention about the UK - the full unemployment, the great universities - are precisely the sorts of things that will be put at risk when Brexit kicks in. Today's children will certainly be aware that they live in a global world, but a scenario where you have to leave home to live the sort of life you want is less than ideal.

@Hatchee you could be right, I guess we just don’t have the evidence to support that view yet. I think that most of the outstanding universities will retain a relatively high position for the next 10 years or so because they are rich institutions in their own right and will have multiple international investments and sources of income. I am no economist but it’s interesting to look at the relative influence of different economic actors in the situation. Government is an important actor, so is big business - I don’t think we can expect a lot of new investment from international business in the next 5-10 years but the amount it would cost to wind up and ship out is prohibitive. So probably more of a slow decline than massive drop off from what I have heard from people working for companies considering this kind of thing. We will also lose a lot of international skilled workers so in the short term that could represent an opportunity, although the long term tax take doesn’t look brilliant and public services are already groaning but I don’t know if that is Brexit or austerity or a combination of both.

I am kind of depressing myself thinking about it actually, but I still think you can make the best of any situation and stand by the belief that neither the OP nor her children would be necessarily doomed by a return to the UK based on the information she has given.

@swimminguphill That's true, it's all very uncertain. I hope all my doom-and-gloom stuff is completely wrong. And always, I think micro concerns - family ties, the particulars of what's best for everybody - ranks more highly than macro stuff.

thanks - some very thoughtful (and thought provoking) posts

We're currently in a situation where have to decide between staying put in England, moving to Scotland or moving to an EU country. Aside from Brexit, Scotland move wins hands down. The EU move is a world of unknowns and potentially tricky and no guarantees of helpful from a financial pov, but it does have 'avoiding Brexit' going for it. Can't decide if that is enough to make it worth going for.

Dh's contract ends in December 19, so we will be heading back to the UK (yay!); he will retire and I will job hunt as I need another 6 years NICs for a fullish state pension. We are both looking forward to moving back.

Ds finishes his MA this month, so no educational issue to worry about.

We have an agreement to stay (US) until 2020 anyway - which will have made our emigration 8years instead of the initial assumed 3-4. We’re supposed to have a catch up chat about it next year and I highly suspect it will be, let’s see what happens in the year or two post Brexit....

We moved back last July. No regrets at all.

We're UK citizens, due home from the EU next summer. We could stay. We could ask for a transfer to the US. But we're coming home. We're British. It's the only place that has to have us. So while things are so uncertain, it seems like the right place to be.

Besides, I want a chance to put things right, and I have to be in the UK to do that. Might not be fun, but it's mine.