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Bond yields…please can someone explain!

9 replies

Lilajess · 11/04/2025 09:14

Can someone with a good knowledge of bond markets explain to me whether - in simple terms - high bond yields are good or bad. I’ve read before about ‘investors searching for yield’ i.e. higher yields are good, but then this week there’s been a lot in the press about 10-year Treasury bond yields soaring i.e. that is bad.

Also, are yields only important to investors in the secondary market? If I was to buy a gilt today, as a retail investor, would the coupon be my
only concern?

Finally, do bond prices move yields or vice versa?

thanks!

OP posts:
stealthninjamum · 11/04/2025 09:45

I don’t have a good knowledge of bonds but I can recommend Ramin from the Pensioncraft podcast and YouTube channel. He explains bonds well.

Hereward1332 · 11/04/2025 13:59

If bond yields go up 1) The issuer is having to pay more in interest 2) The price of bonds on the secondary market is likely to fall as newer bonds pay higher interest.

If you are buying gilts today, the coupon would be a concern, especially if you want to hold until maturity. If you want to sell before maturity you will be interested in the price you could get which would be influenced by the yield of new issues.

Codlingmoths · 11/04/2025 14:14

It is complicated because the market is kind of the opposite of your buying and holding a bond. If you buy and hold a government bond you get that coupon rate. But the next lot of govt issue coupons reflects the market at that time, so you might a) feel relatively poor suddenly if it pays more than your bond does and b) it would sell for less than it did before because people will buy the higher coupon. If everyone wants to buy at the govt bonds auction, the coupons will be lower as the govt don’t have to pay more to get people to buy, the buyers bid up the price which lowers the yield. And right now, people don’t want to buy us govt bonds. So the yield is going up. Sometimes that’s expected. Right now it’s creating a lot of news because listed equities ie the stock markets are very down, and risk is up. This usually means people want to buy us govt bonds because they are safe. Having higher bond yields instead , especially while the dollar is falling (the dollar index just dropped below 1 ) is a market signal that US govt bonds and the us are not a safe haven for capital. So it’s saying things are really shaky and wrong.

JunePr · 11/04/2025 16:29

Bonds can be really good or really dangerous. You do need to be careful. Bonds are simply IOUs, so the higher the rate (in general) the higher the risk. The rates should be higher the riskier the issuer (the person borrowing) and the longer the maturity of the bond (the length of the lending period, e.g. you pay more to borrow for 10 years versus 2 years).

But the thing to watch out for is the longer the maturity of the bond (regardless of credit worthiness), and assuming the interest is fixed rate (most are), then the price can be very volatile if general background interest rates move. That is why 3 years ago so many people lost money who who invested in blended funds (e.g. the Vanguard 60:40 fund, with 60% in bonds).

Note, I do like bonds but you do need to be sure you know what you're doing. The Ramin channel mentioned above is an excellent resource, but if you're confused it might be worth seeking some professional help.

RichcatPoorcat · 11/04/2025 18:06

Bonds are essentially a debt on which the buyer/holder receives interest payments, known as the 'coupon'. The debtor is either a government or a company.

Just like when you go to the bank to ask for a loan, the rate of interest depends on the risk of default - so junk bonds for instance are more risky, so offer a higher interest rate to tempt investors to lend to them.
Higher quality bonds are from stable governments such as the UK and the US, but because they are viewed as a safe bet they don't offer so much by way of a return on interest.

Although it might seem that bond yields rising is a good thing because you receive a higher return, it indicates something else is going on in the market that causes concern, such as....

  • Bond prices falling because investors are losing confidence and selling them off. Why? because they anticipate a downturn in the economy, or rising interest rates (so they could earn more in cash), or higher inflation where the real value of the bond will be worth less when it is eventually repaid.
  • Rising yields means it's more expensive for governments and businesses to borrow money. Interest rates might need to rise so the government can raise enough money through borrowing (and perhaps through tax rises) to run its economy, leading to higher mortgages, higher prices because companies have to pay more to service their debts, and rising unemployment because both governments and businesses might need to cut down on costs and spending. Consumers will have less to spend and it can lead to a slow down in the economy.
RichcatPoorcat · 11/04/2025 21:14

Interesting article @parietal. It doesn't really explain why Trump was spooked - he'd already said the road would be bumpy and there'd be some short term pain, but it would be worth it in the long run.

OP - Here's my view on why Trump was spooked by rising bond yields.... (simplified version):

Imagine you're a successful billionaire in the US - Mr Moose. You've created a hugely profitable global motorbike business, Moose Motorbikes.
All of your profits are in shares and share options, and various other tax advantaged schemes (because of course billionaires don't pay taxes).

Soon enough you want another challenge, so you decide to buy another company - say, a chain of motels. But you won't sell any shares in Moose Motorbikes because it would incur an eye-watering capital gains tax bill. How to raise the one billion needed to buy Moose Motels? You approach a bank to borrow the money you need at a very low interest (you're a billionaire so have a top credit rating), and offer to put up £1billion worth of shares in Moose Motorbikes as collateral - you don't have to sell them, but the bank knows they can claim them if you default. Now you can buy the chain of motels on credit, and any profits can be used to pay back the debt to the bank - a tax deductible expense (because of course billionaires don't pay taxes). Neat.

Alas disaster strikes - the US President imposes tariffs on the Asian country which supplies all of your raw materials and rare elements to build the motorbikes. This hugely increases manufacturing costs for Moose Motorbikes impacting profits. Worse still, other parts of the world are furious and try to boycott US products affecting your sales revenue. The share price of Moose Motorbikes sinks.

So, the bank sees the £1billion worth of shares you put up as collateral have dropped in value and it starts to get nervous - maybe they are only worth half a billion now. The bank is half a billion short of collateral on the loan. They give you a call and ask you to repay the half a billion short-fall back, so they will still be covered if you default.

Now Mr Moose has a dilemma - if you sell half a billion worth of shares in your own company when it's share price is already tumbling, it will crystallise your losses in the share price, incur a huge tax bill and signal that you no longer have faith in your own company. This might trigger a further sell off as investors take fright. How to raise the cash without selling shares? Well, you sell any bonds you've previously invested in.

But, imagine there are many billionaires and millionaires who operate the same business model of borrowing to raise capital to buy more assets like your motels. Their share prices are also falling and they are also receiving calls from their banks, and selling bonds to raise the money they need. This floods the bond market with too many bonds for sale so the price falls and the yield rises.

Now trying to sell bonds raises less money because the price has fallen, and you need to sell yet more bonds and soon you're in a downward spiral of falling prices and rising yields. (There is also a suspicion that the Asian country subject to tariffs is selling its own stock of US bonds to depress the price further to try to destabilise the US system).

If a lowly factory worker defaults on a bank loan, it's bad news for the worker - maybe he will go bankrupt - the bank absorbs the loss and the worker gets a very bad credit record.

But if several billionaires and millionaires can't raise sufficient cash to pay back the banks, then it's the banks that go bankrupt, and the whole system collapses.

As Trump said - people were getting a bit yippy....

Lilajess · 12/04/2025 21:53

Thank you all so much! Some very clever people here on the Investments board ; ) Love Moose Motorbikes!

OP posts:
roses2 · 21/04/2025 11:41

Have you looked at Uk Government Gilts? This is something I am considering it requires locking your money away for a minimum of 5 years to get a decent rate:

www.hl.co.uk/shares/corporate-bonds-gilts/bond-prices/uk-gilts

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