The Falkland Islands

[Saltire]

Does anyone else ever wonder,as I do, if the Argentinians will ever try to take them by force again? Or will the UK hand them over in a decade or so?
There is a story on the news about Gordon Browm meeting the Argentinian President this week, and GB ahs said that teh Falklands won't be on his agenda, but the Argentine President has said he wants to discuss them.

I think the UK could not defend the islands now as per Thatcher but the Argentines would never be allowed to get any oil out either (for that is now the main driver for claims on the Falklands bu UK and Argentine) so it would not be sensible for them to invade again either.

There has been a considerable amount of oil exploration around the Falkland Islands and if oil were found in commercial quantities then it is inevitable that Argentina would become involved because the processing and consumption of much of that crude oil close to the site of production. Commercial reality, not nationalism would prevail.

Even more tellingly, I think it likely that the entire population of the Falkland Island would become very rich overnight and as a result most would leave the islands and it would be effectively taken over by the oil industry.

I had an investment in the Falklands a few years ago and I have visted the far southern tip of Argentine about a decade a go where feelings about the Malvinas were stil running very high. UK/Argentine partnership is the most likely and best oucome rather than invasion.

I totally agree that we couldn't defend them, the military is at overstretch and we couldn't get a task force assembled like we did in 84.
In regards to the oil(if it was found) if the Argentines invaded, and we couldn't defend them surely they would take over the Islands and the claim to any oil?
If oil is found, the US will sudeenly decide they want to help
DH (RAF) was sent there for 4 months 2 years ago, he said the residents consider themselves very much part of the UK, and he said the stories of some of them about the conflict were fascinating to hear. My cousin was there in '84, fighting

Saltire - now I understand. I did wonder from your interest and your name if your DH was oil industry or military regiment (I have just been on the migraine/big toe thread by the way).

You are right in all respects in what you say. There is no doubt that Argentina coud take and hold the islands if it wanted. However, in miltary strategic or game theoretic terms a 'single period one shot game'. What would happen after the invasion and the Argentines found oil?

Well the UK could just prevent any oil ever leaving by sending a single hunter-killer submarine down there. No aircraft carriers, troops or other ships required. Stalemate would ensue. Of course the Argentines know this and therefore would not invade in the first place. What they also know is that they can drag the UK to the negotiating table if oil is ever found so cooperation is the only sensible outcome.

I met a man recently who grew up as a child on the Falklands but came to the UK at 12 to go to boarding school. His parents stil own a sheep farm there. The feeling of being part of the UK was very strongly put to me by him as well.

DH said that he thought it was strange how the islanders, almost 4000 miles away considered themselves more British than some UK citizens,he said there are pictures of the Queen all over the place, and he said they take great care over the war graves (which is only right) but he says many of them said "whatever hapens, these men are part of our lives, they made us who we are now and that's why we look after them" in reference to the war graves.
Do you think they will ever find oil there?

I do think though that Argentine families should be able to go to the Islands to visit the war graves there.

Some indications of oil deposits have been found but I have a good friend who is an expert oil geologist and now runs a small oil exloratuon company and he has looked at the geology of the area and he told me he though $10 billion would be required as an up front invetsment to get even the first drop of oil out.

I thought that was high figure but he has worked on North Sea rigs in his early days and he said the Southern Ocean is a whole magnitude more hostile than the North Sea and the depth of the oil and topography of the sea bed there is much more difficult as well.

Add to that the difficulty of getting the oil physically ashore and it is a massive technical challenge. Not insurmountable but with that kind of money required as an up front investment the political climate would have to be very stable indeed and that can only be achieved if Argentina and the UK cooperate.

All in all, the oil may never be exploited for another 50 years. The UK is in no hurry to exploit the oil at the moment and Argentina obviously wants to drag Gordon Brown into a discussion - hence the posturing thsi week.

Good to hear the war graves are being so carefully looked after and people of the Falklands are as loyal as they are. We should not forget them or abandon them but we must also negotiate and move forward.