So do we all think there is a recession on the way or are you still hopeful we'll avoid one?

[Callisto]

Barratt housing have announced this morning that they are expecting to lay off 1200 workers having experienced a near 50% drop in house sales recently. Bovis and Redrow have also laid people off. The City is, allegedly, laying people off too. So with unemployment on the rise (I've heard 2 million will become unemployed in the next couple of years), manufacturing shrinking for the last two months, inflation running at around 9.5% and no end in sight to high oil prices, is there any way at all we can avoid a recession? And do any of you think that the Govt can do anything to prevent it?

[Callisto]

UQD - apologies but maybe her customer works every hour God sends?

[UnquietDad]

And Jack has nothing to lose - he's close to retirement age, has held two of the Great Offices, and being "former PM" for the rest of his life, even if it was only for 3 months, would have benefits for his future speaking tours, books etc... None of the younger ones will do it as they are too frightened of seeming disloyal and/or failing.

[UnquietDad]

maybe she does, but i still thought it was ironic. For some people "cutting back" means shopping at Lidl or not having the heating on, for others it means letting go of the staff.

[expatinscotland]

I'm going to make my fortune by selling cheap Primark tshirts I'm going to handscreen with, 'I shopped in Lidl before it was cool'.

I saw Cath Kidston re-usable bags on sale in Tesco yesterday, ffs.

Worse than that, I almost bought one .

[ConnorTraceptive]

We may not have sympathy for those who have to cut back on cleaners and ironing services but what about those who are proding these services. Other people's luxuries are their bread and butter

[WideWebWitch]

Agree about generation Y - they have grown up being told they're great, (with little evidence), have never lived through tough economic times, have an ENORMOUS sense of entitlement, think the world owes them a living.

Also agree that people have been seeing their houses as great big cashpoints and totally failing to realise it's all on paper and that can go downwards at any time.

[expatinscotland]

Nail on head, WWW. Bang on post.

[expatinscotland]

Nail on head, WWW. Bang on post.

[TwoIfBySea]

Recession on its way?

I would say that boat is already sailing. Get your lifejackets on.

[expatinscotland]

I'm going to do the handscreening and TwoIf is going to do the dyeing.

We're gonna be rich and wind up in Red magazine as Two Ponces Who Made It Big.

[mazzystar]

v true www

it had to stop

its just a shame its going to be so hard on everyone

[WideWebWitch]

I am nervous about it. I am a contractor and apparently we won't be affected as much as perm employees (not sure I believe that) but dh said the other day "oh, my job'll be ok" - I said he shouldn't be so sure: plenty of skilled IT people drove cabs /cleaned windows/ did whatever they could in the last recession, love.

The big difference for me is that now I have children to feed, the last time it was just me and I had various jobs so it was ok.

It's all very well saying well we could sell a car/house but if no-one's buying anything...(I don't have a house btw, just theorising)

[WideWebWitch]

I don't think many younger people realise what it means in practical terms. Many of the Gen Y'ers I work with have no concept of

Saving
waiting until you can afford things
not having or being able to get a job
redundancy
high interest rates and what it means
inability to borrow money
higher prices

[noddyholder]

About a month ago the general consensus on MN wa sthat a ercession was unlikely and house prices were either staying flat or only rising a tiny bit.It has changed so fast.

[expatinscotland]

I know my electric, gas and diesel bills seemed to change overnight, too.

Shockingly so.

[WideWebWitch]

weeelll, except me and thee NH!

[noddyholder]

Oh I know we've been harping on forever.I took advice froma friend in the city who persuaded me to sell up and rent last summer.I had to do a bit of teach yourself economics and reading The FT every day to convince dp but he is glad now

[MrsTittleMouse]

What's a Generation Y-er? Is it me? DH and I have a complete fear of getting into debt. We're probably too far the other way, as a mortgage seems like a terrifying proposition. So maybe we're unusual.

I know of plenty of people who have been through it all though (my parent's generation) who have tried to encourage us to leap into the housing market "because you have to get a foot on the ladder"/"prices always go up"/"renting is a mug's game". You'd think that they'd know better.

[noddyholder]

People who rented rather than get saddled with big interest only mortgages are smart

[WideWebWitch]

Gen Y

[WideWebWitch]

actually this is a better explanation

[MrsTittleMouse]

Oh no! I'm too old!
No wonder I'm into saving money, I'm an old fogey.

SIL is older than us though, and has been MEWing her heart out to do up the house and take loads of foreign holidays...

[BreeVanderCampLGJ]

We pulled our horns in about two years ago, and we also fixed our mortgage at 4.6% until 2010.

I found an email I had sent to a colleague at Christmas, commenting that the economy was contracting at a rate of knots.

Her reply, don't be daft.

We are debt free(mortgage aside) and she is desperately trying to consolidate their debts.

4x4 and three holidays a year anyone. ??

[TwoIfBySea]

I like the sound of that expat!

[nkf]

But that cleaner will be less well off. It's illogical to lament over people having to lay off staff at car plans but sneer when people have to give up their cleaners. The cleaning woman needs the money.