Has Labour's polling recovery after the handover got real momentum?

[MyCyanBear]

More in Common today: Labour 28, Reform 24. First time ANY pollster has had Labour in front for about sixteen months, and the same firm had Reform ahead five days ago.

The speed is what gets me. Two weeks ago Reform led everything. Then Burnham walks in, takes VAT off electricity, brings back the £2 bus cap, puts £340m into rough sleeping, and the entire polling picture flips inside a fortnight.

Obvious caveats: it's one pollster so far, and every new PM gets a bounce that usually fades by conference season. But Farage demanding an immediate election while his own favourability sits at a six year low is starting to look like a man asking for a fight he'd currently lose.

Decent breakdown of what's flipped and what to watch here: trendingsheet.com/article/labour-leads-reform-first-time-march-2025-more-in-common

So, honeymoon or turning point? Anyone here actually moved their vote since the handover?

At the moment people have very little to go on and are projecting their hopes onto Burnham, which they like. In six months time most lives won’t have changed and it will slip back, maybe not as far as Starmer as he was awful. If Bin Face wins that could really damage Reform’s standing in the polls but I can’t see it sadly.

It isn't a sudden recovery. After hitting a low in around December and flat lining for a few months, Labour's polling has been going up strongly since April, whilst support for the Greens has been declining. Note that this trend started before the local elections, so Burnham may have helped accelerate the trend but it was already there.

The Conservatives have also been going up since April but not as strongly, whilst Reform have been on the slide since around October. If the current trend continues, Reform will drop to third by the end of this year or early next.

Of course, things may change. Burnham may prove to be a disaster who takes Labour's ratings back down, and Reform may stage a recovery. However, I've been a voter for over half a century. I've lost count of the number of times I've been told that one or other of the big two parties is dead and will never be in government again. And this is by no means the first time that an insurgent party has led the polls for an extended period, with many believing they will form the next government. It has never happened in my lifetime. It may be that this time is different, but I suspect it isn't. I don't bet but, if I did, my money would be on either Labour or the Conservatives winning the next election, with the other becoming the opposition.

I've recently had a letter advising my brother's killer is due to be released early under Labour's sentencing reforms. I've contacted my local MP (who voted in favour of the legislation) and had no reply.
I've voted Labour in the past but there's zero chance I'll vote for them in the future.

I am so sorry that you’re experiencing this. Gently though, what I would say, is I think whoever was in power would have had to make some very, very hard choices on prison capacity, and any political party pretending otherwise is being disingenuous.

I really hope the review the Prime Minister has ordered resolves this positively for you and your family and that all parties are able to put political point scoring aside and work together constructively to solve the prison crisis.

The short answer will depend on how Andy Burnham deals with the more fundamental issues such as the economy, healthcare, education, defence, immigration etc.

Of course he will be popular for cutting VAT on electricity, £2 bus fares etc, but he will be a lot less popular when the public get to see and feel the tax increases to pay for all of this.

I think Reform have kind of plateaued at around 20%. They will only get above that if specific immigration related events occur- either a horrific crime, large numbers coming in etc.
The Conservatives will continue to very gradually increase their voting share but again there will be a ceiling to this as so many voters cannot forgive them for 14 years (especially the last 9 years) of crap Government.

The Greens have been slipping largely due to Zac Polanski.

Labour's best chance of winning the next election is that the right wing vote is split between Reform and the Conservatives.

I am so sorry to read that @Arynaa
I don’t live in the UK but will comment anyway on the fact that Andy Burnham is carrying on with the decision to release prisoners guilty of serious crimes early.
They rarely serve their full sentence anyway but this must be a real gut punch.
I thought AB would rescind that obnoxious recent policy decision of early release.
I thought he would do the decent thing.
But nope.
He’s off on holiday.
I just don’t know how the law abiding British people are putting up with it.
How they aren’t marching on the streets.
The supposedly all powerful Gianni Infantino’s proposal re World Cup football was pulled because of a public outcry.
This is way more serious. 🥲
BTW my own country has a seriously soft legal system too.

Thank you, @deeahgwitch. I understand prisons are full and something needs to be done but I just can't believe this can ever be the answer. I'm devastated.

I'm not sure what other answer there is. As far as I can see, there are only three ways of dealing with the problem:

1. Release some prisoners early, which is what the government is proposing
2. Stop the courts sending anyone to prison until space opens up
3. Build more prisons and/or increase the capacity of the existing prisons

Option 3 is the right solution and the government is doing that, but it takes time. The plan is for 14,000 additional prison places by 2031. However, current projections suggest that may not be enough as the prison population is expected to grow by up to 16,000 by 2030. For comparison, from 2010 to 2024 the previous government built 13,000 new prison places but closed 12,500, giving a net increase of just 500.

I doubt option 2 would be popular. So that leaves us with option 1. Much as I don't like it, I think we have to accept some kind of early release scheme, and it has to encompass enough prisoners to actually resolve the situation.

It seems there’s a move to release the majority of women prisoners early to free up space. This seems sensible as most of them have been imprisoned for relatively trivial offences. The trouble is that this will free up just a fraction of the places needed as there only 3,500 women in prison in total.

There is also apparently a move towards community rehabilitation in cases where the offender presents no danger to others.