Could Andy Burnham challenge Reform UK in Northern Labour heartlands?

[UknownM]

Putting this on the board because the leadership conversation has moved fast.

Labour NEC cleared Andy Burnham on 15 May to stand in the candidate selection for the Makerfield by-election. Same NEC that voted 8-1 to block him from Gorton and Denton in January. The difference is Wes Streeting resigned 14 May, 97 Labour MPs are publicly calling for Starmer to go, and the leadership picture is now open.

The polling gap was already wide before any of this. Late September 2025 Opinium: Burnham net plus 10, Starmer net minus 40. A 50-point gap.

The thing I had not seen written up was why Burnham specifically is the candidate that should worry Reform UK most (rather than Streeting, Rayner or Miliband). Five reasons that all anchor on his Greater Manchester record and the May 7 local election results: Reform UK won 58 of 75 seats in Sunderland; took Gateshead and South Tyneside; gained in Hartlepool and Burnley. That is exactly the territory Burnham converts as a Northern mayor with a £2 bus fare cap he kept while England's rose to £3.

Full piece with sources cited inline: trendingsheet.com/article/andy-burnham-premiership-why-reform-uk-should-be-scared-uk

What do people think? Is Burnham actually a problem for Reform UK in those Northern seats, or is the moment past?

I’ve no doubt that the journalists will point out AB’s wrong doings again and it won’t be a problem for Reform.

It depends how racist / transphobic people in the North are

You mean whether people in the north know that people can't change sex? I'd imagine that's the majority of them.

Nice piece of shoehorning the men in there.

I just don’t see Burnham winning that seat. I think it will be a protest vote, although it depends on how well the new Reform councillors in the area do, and who the Reform and Green candidates are.

I honestly have no idea. I'd hope so, but Reform and Farage have a cult like appeal similar to Trump and MAGA. It depends whether their class consciousness can override their prejudices.

Bloody hope it’s not a Reform win. They won the County in Essex. What was their first priority?

Get started in looking at the local housing issues?
Look in to the state of some roads locally?
Look into how poor the SEND department has performed?
Look at the figures for social care and note the inequalities?

No it was none of those things. Their first priority was to raise a flag outside County Hall.

Nice to see where their thoughts are.

Priorities? Who needs those?

Well without hope we have nothing. So hope he does.

The far right could win in Makerfield and there are still people on Mumsnet happy because they can't accept trans women

He will defeat Reform if he is able to show voters that Labour have/will deliver something that addresses their concerns.

Those are:

-decent, well paid jobs with a permanent contract. They do not want benefits. They want hope.
-getting an appointment with an NHS doctor or getting on an NHS dentist list.
-affordable, decent housing
-cost of living
-Addressing the problems caused by large scale immigration In the Northern mill towns these are poorly educated, low skilled people who do not contribute to the economy and do not integrate. These problems have been compounded by the recent influx of young, single men, often illegal migrants sent up North by Southern local authorities.
(Middle class Southerners telling them they are thick, racist bigots for caring about these issues will not win votes)

It does not matter whether Reform will or will not deliver on any of the above. What matters is whether Labour have recognised the problems and done something concrete to resolve them.

The new Reform councillors have only been in place for five minutes. I think Burnham stands an excellent chance of winning, he’ll have to work for it though.