What chance a Russian ceasefire agreement?

[llizzie]

Putin invaded Ukraine because, as he has made clear, he considers Ukraine to be part of Russia and does not recognise the sovereignty of Ukraine.

He says that if there are military fighters in Ukraine from other countries he will take that as an invasion of Russia.

If ceasefire and sanctions fail, Europe has to consider that if they DO NOT put their military boots to help Ukraine, will Europe and US (no use considering what Trump thinks) be seen to accept Putin's claim that Ukraine is Russian territory?

How can we not send military to Ukraine? If we don't we will be seen to have given Ukraine to Russia, as Putin claims.

If we do, will Putin go to war against Europe? Should we call his bluff? From what Lavrov said recently, they are prepared for WW3 anyway. They want it to happen.

This week Putin said the 'special military action' is connected to WW2, which can only mean Putin is hinting that he wants to recover the USSR, He wants war. He wants to see what happens in his lifetime, wants to try out new weapons - in his lifetime.

Kim Ung wants that too. I don't think Xi Jinping wants that, but China shares a long border with Russia.

EU and NATO members will not put Putin off war. What harm can they do to him once it starts?

It's important to see what is and not what once was. Russia are not China. They've really struggled to take just 20% of a much smaller and less populous country. The West has given Ukraine very limited support and not the weapons they wanted and needed to actually counter attack. Russia is full of bluster, but the truth is, if it came to a war with NATO even excluding the United States, Russia would be massively out manned both on a population front and a combat troops front, and out gunned. NATO weapons, with some exceptions, are superior to Russian ones. Russia would be mad to want a war with us.

I don't know about you but I certainly don't want a war. How do we avoid a war? Stop looking weak. We don't need to to send our own troops to Ukraine, all we need to do is give them all the weapons they need to reclaim their territory. Giving them drips and drabs over years costs us more in money, more in lives from both Ukraine ad Russia, and if we allow Ukraine to lose, not only have we spent a lot of money pointlessly, we look incredibly weak and with the work going the way it is, do we think that will make attacks on us more or less likely?

Negotiation wise, Russia is playing the US and its allies like a fiddle.

But in practice I agree with PP - they have battled to take control of a much smaller country with (on paper) a weaker military. Russian military infrastructure/armaments are beset by corruption, poor quality and a Soviet mindset.

Interesting that this thread is three posts long, while threads demanding a ceasefire from Israel (when it has offered many and been refused by Hamas) have their own board.

No one wants a war - except Putin and Lavrov. I think we should call his bluff. Putin and Lavrov are, I think displaying muscle they haven't got. You are right about the dips and drabs over the years.

I was pleased to hear the EU announce that Ukraine can use weapons provided by Germany and others to defend themselves by hitting back at Russia. I hope that does some good. What Putin has done so far is copy the actions of those he looks up to - Hitler and Stalin. We have a duty to humanity to ensure that never happens again. Doing nothing but hope will not achieve anything.

There are people living in East Europe who have memories of those days, and fear they could return. Ukraine suffered much under Stalin. Hunger, starvation, were the tools he used to rule them. Putin will do the same. He is laying waste to East Ukraine because that is where the rarest minerals are. I am surprised Trump isn't taking more action, considering he wants those minerals as well. Perhaps he has done a similar deal with Putin to mine those minerals in the East?

We cannot be sure that anything Trump does is better for anyone but Trump. He has shown how trade can control the world, just as Putin has demonstrated that power over world shipping is as good as invading countries.

Now we hear that Putin is dealing with Mauritius, just before Starmer signs away the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. There is a secret military base on one of the islands, which we are leasing from Mauritius. Is the Mauritius/Russia deal to see a Russian base and another Cuba standoff?

I hope this thread gets longer very slowly.

The situation is too dire to be quickly dispensed with, and is changing all the time. New reports affect the situation daily. Perhaps the longer the thread continues, we might see history rolled out before us.

There is no quick fix to resolve this, and that is a good thing.

It is not just for world leaders to decide. Elected leaders are there to represent us, the people. We have a say. The first duty of any elected government is the safety of it's people. Not sure that Trump knows who his people are any more. Not sure Putin knows either. Between them, and for different reasons, they can do a lot of damage.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia cannot be won by war. It has to be through discussion, and Putin refuses to do that. He was trained in the KGB - not exactly a religious institution. He uses Stalin as his mentor. Stalin died in fear of everyone, shut himself up alone and died alone. Even his doctor was denied in the end. Perhaps Putin only concentrates on the evil Stalin did, not the end. He copies everything Hitler did before and at the start of WW2.

Hitler needed to boost his economy and arm himself, so he invaded the countries around Germany and took the population to work as slaves in work camps. They were slaves, because they had very little pay and very little food. Hitler was able to manufacture armaments and military assets, which were churned out thick and fast, because they were not allowed to do that after the Great War. Putin is doing the same. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians taken hostage and set to work. That is why the Russian economy, though far from good, is not suffering from the sanctions as we hoped.

Today is announced that ''Trump is cross with Putin''.

I worry about Ukraine a lot of the time (and yes I’m also horrified about Israel/Gaza/Iran too). But Ukraine really worries me because Trump seems to want them to lose and is just dragging out helping them, basically the exact same tactics as putin. He’s also spreading misinformation, there is actual people in America that think Zelensky spends all the aid money on holidays and yachts.

It’s so upsetting. Torture, death, Ukrainian POWs being used as cannon fodder by Russia. Ukrainian children abducted from occupied areas. It’s just horrible and I really feel for them.

its incredible that after 3 years, Russia still only has a relatively small amount of Ukraine. Surely if we really all stood up to putin, we would win?

I do too, especially after Thursday night. That extra bombing of Kiev so soon after Trump's telephone conversation with Putin is strange to say the least.

Do you think Trump will win whoever comes on top if there is ever a ceasefire? Trump has said time and again that he want to import rare minerals from Ukraine so that America does not have to import them from elsewhere. He is so adamant about acquiring those rare minerals from Ukraine he has forced mining agreements out of Ukraine and still will not send them air defence.

The biggest amount of the rare minerals are in the ground which Putin invaded - East Ukraine. Is it possible that Trump might have an agreement - however tentative - to the mining rights if Russia keeps the East?

I ask, because Trump has already brokered an agreement with Putin for protection of US ships in the Black Sea, and for the life of me I cannot see why, unless Trump has some promise of mining in East Ukraine.

Is it possible to have a transcript of that telephone conversation of Thursday, do you think? I suppose it is secret, but all the same, Ukraine should know what is being said about the conflict.

Putin and Lavrov continue to insist that Ukraine is Russian territory and is not independent. They maintain that the war with Ukraine is a civil war and any country who puts boots on the ground is at war with Russia. It is so very wrong.

Some missiles hit the Polish Embassy, The land on which embassies stand belongs to the country whose embassy it is. What will Poland do now?

I think Europe should call Putin's bluff and fight it out once for all for the sake of freedom in all Europe.

I feel for the people of Ukraine. They have bravely battled for their country against Russian invaders.

Putin is playing Trump and Trump is dumb so is easily played by Putin. Ukraine need help but Trump is more interested in himself and his various outbursts than people who are dying. He's happy to give huge amounts of land away to Putin, thats not his to give.

The situation is dire, because Trump thinks he can stop the war. You cannot stop a war by giving the invader what he has taken by force. It causes resentment which builds up in a population. Then civil unrest begins.

Putin has caused civil unrest all over the world, then goes in and offers to mediate - and stays. There are active and inactive Russian bases in many parts of the world. Russian civilians are also in many countries. The most recent was the pact he made with Belarus: free travel between Belarus and Russia, work permits, no passports or visas needed, so many agreements that is it tantamount to annexing Belarus.

Then there is Georgia: Putin announced conscription a year or so back and thousands of Russians of military age rushed into Georgia. We saw them queuing up at the border. Give it a year or two and Putin will go in to ''make sure the interests of Russian civilians is good''. As with other past USSR members, he will make an excuse and invade, because Georgia is neither a member of NATO or EU.

Putin took Crimea by force and all the south coast of Ukraine, leaving just the coast along Odesa. He will not cross Erdogan because Turkey is in NATO. Putin will take any old USSR country except those affiliated with NATO. He refuses to make peace unless Ukraine withdraws it's application to NATO. That is because he stands a better chance of annexing Ukraine and adding to his empire while he still lives. The Russian people are oblivious to this.

With so much control of the Black Sea coast he can control the trade of any country passing through the Bosphorus into the Mediterranean. Iran is supplying Putin with arms. It is also supplying the Houthis with weapons, which the Houthis are using to fire at shipping in the Red Sea, so effectively controlling the Suez Canal. Exports and imports to and from EU have to go around the Cape, which has increased costs.

Putin is a dangerous man, and I believe Trump knows that and is placating him as much as possible. If Putin decides Russia should have Alaska back, and invaded that part, because Russian bodies are buried there, would NATO send troops in to stop him? If Europe is reluctant to send troops into Ukraine now, would it help America, especially bearing in mind Trump's blackmail?

Totally agree

Any comments on Putin's press conference today? How did he look to you?

What did you think from the faces of the journalists having to listen to him? It was cringeworthy.

Did any of you watch a brilliant documentary series on Netflix, a few years called Occupado? Set in Norway, it is an absolute manual on what is described in Georgia. It step by step takes you through it

That sounds good, according to JustWatch it is now on prime.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel it very cleverly leads you up to a series of events and then you understand how coups, invasions etc. happen. I think 3 series in total. Its like a forewarning.

It is. Lavrov almost said he wanted war a few months ago.It is obvious that Putin has absolutely no desire to make peace, and he knows that the longer he prevaricates the more jittery the world gets. Does he want to see how his scientists' latest weapons work?

Ukraine will not surrender, and our government has made an agreement to help protect Ukraine for 100 years. I think Europe will have to go to war, because if we do not, Putin will not stop with Ukraine. He doesn't want Ukraine. He wants to lay it to waste, taking the mineral wealth. Make no mistake. He has admitted Stalin is his hero. A bigger hint to the west could not be made. You have to look back to the USSR and the way that was run.

Stalin ruled by starvation and poverty. It is not that long ago that it broke up: not even 40 years. It is said that a country which lasts 40 years is going on forever. Putin wants Ukraine before it gets to that. Unless Europe makes decisions now, refusing to go to war is like letting the scammers raid your bank accounts and letting them do it.

The worse news this last week was that 1800 Ukrainian kidnapped children have been sent to North Korea. No one is quite sure why, yet. Thousands of North Korean military men have died in the war, more injured. What they will be doing in NK is a mystery. As the children were taken, most likely they are now white slaves in payment for dead soldiers.

That is proof that Putin is ruthless. It is a hint to Ukrainians that the same will happen to them when Ukraine is finally his. It must not come to that.

I think we should call his bluff. He has said if Europe puts filled boots on the ground, he will attack Europe. He may. I doubt it, but he is stupid enough to do it just to see what happens. He made a pact with Belarus in first quarter of 2025, and the news of some sort of agreement between Belarus and America is weird. Belarus will attack Ukraine from the north whatever agreement is made with Putin. The Wagner Group is stationed there - and in parts of Africa.

I am not warmongering, don't think that, but realistically we are closer than we think.

Yes, I think you are right. It’s the USSR he wants back