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"MMR-Autism link is dismissed - again"

89 replies

CoteDAzur · 05/02/2008 22:15

That is the title of the article anyway.

If there are any doctors among us, could they explain why the study was looking for a "raised concentration of measles antibodies"? What was that supposed to show?

And how come none of the autistic children in the test group had any 'bowel symptoms'?

OP posts:
SenoraPancake · 06/02/2008 20:33

a study which included two or three hundred autistic children should show that 7% though, yurt, and there have been several studies of that size (i.e. several hundred autistic children, more if you count those with autism spectrum disorders). Anything other than a random sample would not give reliable results.

I'm not arrogant enough to think I know all there is to know about this just because I've read a few studies, but as far as I know, the wakefield study is the only one out of quite a few different studies to show a link between MMR and autism. he might be right, but the chances are he is wrong, and we have now spent lots of money, and lots of academics' time on researching a possible link. that money and expertise could have been spent on studies which attempted to find ways of mitigating the effects of autism instead - wouldn't that be abetter thing to do now?

yurt1 · 06/02/2008 21:01

To achieve statistical validity you need much larger populations. You also need to attempt to identify the subgroup. None of the studies have done this. The authors of these papers themselves have conceded that the studies could not pick up an effect at such a low rate.

I wrote to the Dept of Health in 2000 (2 years before ds1 was diagnosed and before we had any concerns about him being autistic- how interesting) about this point of the Taylor paper not being able to identify a rare idiosyncratic response. And the reply was that "There is no study that will ever rule out a rare idiosyncratic response'. So epidemiology is perhaps not the way to go

Interestingly I commented in my letter that public confidence in the vaccine was very low and the reply said that I was wrong, the study had only caused a very small drop in public confidence and 88% of children are MMRs by the age of 2. Makes a change from them bleating about the MMR story being repsonsible for a mass measles outbreak.

I'd rather the 3 million spent on advertising the MMR (the baby near a lion one) had been spent on looking at ways to individualise the vaccination programme. This latest study didn't need to be done. None of these epidemiological studies did. If researchers want to show us that children with autistic enterocolitis haven't been damaged by MMR then they need to look at them and tell us what did happen.

Autism costs the UK just under 28 billion each year (2.7 billion of that being costs of supporting children, 25 billion being the costs of supporting adults- and those number are going to increase rapidly over the next 10 years). I think money investigating the various triggers would be money well spent. Realistically if you have an 8+ year old child who is non-verbal and in nappies there isn't a lot you can do to mitigate those effects- of course you can help - and you can increase some independence and provide strategies that reduce challenging behaviours but the chances are they're still going to end up in expensive adult care. If you could find the triggers that lead to regression then you'd end up saving a lot of money. Of course that's never going to be possible in every case, but each child 'saved' from a lifetime of severe autism will save 4.6 million (the current estimated lifetime cost of an individual with severe autism). That's a pretty big return on your money.

CoteDAzur · 06/02/2008 21:17

One of the comments to the article in OP:
-----------
There are now fifteen separate clinical research papers that link regressive autism with the gut condition ilieal-lymphoid nodular hyperplasia (ILNH). Most of these are peer-review published papers, and they involve many more researchers than just Dr. Wakefoeld. There are five further clinical research papers that link the ILNH gut condition with measles virus. And there are five further clinical research papers that link the measles virus strain in the affected children with MMR vaccine.

The latest study by Baird et al does nothing whatever to displace or refute these findings in any way, primarily because the study did not look at the gut, for (quote) "ethical reasons". In the context of the MMR/autism debate, Baird's study is the equivalent of driving north to Scotland to seek the source of the Thames. She and her colleagues looked in the wrong place, found nothing, and (bizarrely) concluded that MMR was safe. It's not.

In the meantime, the damage children pile ever higher...

David Thrower, Stockton Heath, Cheshire, UK

---------

OP posts:
Desiderata · 06/02/2008 21:51

Shizaru, of course childbirth is an illness. It hurts and it can kill you. Much like flu.

When I had ds, I had multiple tears. They were stitched up, I was sent home. It was a normal birth (OK, it was 48 hours in agony, but there were no complications and the birth was normal).

A hundred odd years ago (and for countless thousands of years before that), I would have bled to death or died from blood poisoning from my vaginal tears. Thousands of women died either in childbirth or from the effects of childbirth before medicine became advanced enough to deal with the aftermath effectively.

Which is why I listed it in the post you're referring to.

Ahem, and as you were, ladies!

mrsruffallo · 06/02/2008 21:56

Desi, I wouldn't call childbirth an illness. It is an inevitable conclusion to being pregnant, not like catching a cold

Desiderata · 06/02/2008 22:19

I agree, mrsruffalo, but I'm referring to an earlier post about the ages past when modern medicine was not available.

Nowadays we may have the luxury of not calling it an illness, but in our great-grandparents' day, it was often life threatening. It's just semantics really.

Yes, it's a natural process. Of course it is. So is influenza, pneumonia, cholera, etc.

Any how, all of this diverts from the OP.

stuffitall · 06/02/2008 22:23

But could I pop in and say that lots of women died in childbirth of infections long after it was discovered that these infections wouldn't have been contracted if their doctors had washed their hands. But most doctors "knew best" and poo-pooed the findings, and women carried on dying for many years. Just another example of sometimes the lone voice can be right.

mrsruffallo · 06/02/2008 22:37

Sorry, Des..bit lazy- I only read the op and your post!

Desiderata · 06/02/2008 22:55

That's alright, ruff. I'm talking a load of shit anyway, tbh.

Good night to one and all, to stuffitall .. that rhymes (excited emoticon) !!!

My boy has the vomit bug .... ooooooh, it has been a long day

fedda · 06/02/2008 23:12

Sorry, I didn't read all the posts but is it true that doctors get paid more if they have more children immunized? If so, they might try to tell us what's in their interest. i'm simply scared to give my child MMR but my doctor is very harsh saying that I'm not responsible and making me feel guilty. What do people do these days?

Shizaru · 07/02/2008 00:45

Oh, it doesnt really matter, except semantics are important to some :

Childbirth is a natural process - all mammals go through it. It is necessary for reproduction. Whilst it is true that it has been in the past, a hazardous process, doesn't make it an illness - particularly since many women find it an immensely positive experience, with some likening the experience to a type of euphoria. It is also well documented that there is evidence that evolution has caused humans problems with regard to childbirth because babies are now much bigger at birth, and women are less active than they used to be. Many of the 'usual' activities of women in days gone by have been found to help ensure good pelvic muscle tone, and also good for getting babies into the correct position to engage for childbirth.

It is also true that in the last century doctors have liked to make it seem like an illness so that they can "manage" it.

Anyway, sorry your boy is unwell. Sickness bugs are horrendous for all concerned.

Night.

yurt1 · 13/02/2008 13:09

For those that are interersted; Wakefield's response to the paper hope it's cut and pasted ok:

"Response to Baird G. et al. Measles vaccination and antibody response
in autism spectrum disorders. Archives of Disease in Childhood.
Published 5th February 2008."

In a case-control study of 10 to 12-year-old children with either
autism, special-educational needs, or normal development, the authors
examined measles-antibody responses (plaque reduction neutralization
assay) and the presence of measles virus in peripheral blood
mononuclear cells (reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction).
The study apparently sought to identify autistic children relevant to
the original MMR/autism hypothesis, i.e., those who regressed and
those with bowel symptoms.

The study is severely limited by case definition in the context of the
crucial `possible enterocolitis' group. For inclusion in this group
they required the presence of two or more of the following five
current gastrointestinal symptoms:

current persistent diarrhea (defined as watery/loose stools three or
more times per day >14 days),

current persistent vomiting (occurring at least once per day, or more
than five times per week),

current weight loss,

current persistent abdominal pain (3 or more episodes [frequency not
specified by authors] severe enough to interfere with activity);

current blood in stool;

plus:

past persistent diarrhea >14 days' duration, and excluding current
constipation.

We have over the last 10 years evaluated several thousand children on
the autistic spectrum who have significant gastrointestinal symptoms.
Upper and lower endoscopy and surgical histology have identified
mucosal inflammation in excess of 80% of these children. Almost none
of these children with biopsy-proven enterocolitis would fit the
criteria set out above. Firstly, these children rarely have vomiting,
current weight loss (as opposed to failure to gain weight in an
age-appropriate manner), or passage of blood per rectum. The
requirement is thus narrowed to a child having two of two relevant
symptoms ? current persistent diarrhea and current abdominal pain
according to their criteria, plus a past history of persistent
diarrhea excluding current constipation.

The requirement for the current presence of these symptoms, for 14 or
more days continuously, shows a singular lack of understanding of the
episodic, fluctuating, and alternating (e.g. diarrhea/constipation)
symptom profile experienced by these children. In our experience, ASD
children with histologic enterocolitis typically have 1 to 2 unformed
stools per day that are very malodorous and usually contain a variety
of undigested foodstuffs. This pattern alternates with that of
"constipation" in which the unformed stool is passed after many days
of no bowel movements at all, and with excessive straining. This group
is entirely overlooked by the arbitrary criteria set forth in their
paper. With respect to diarrhea and constipation, a detailed
discussion of stool pattern in these children is available1 which
further highlights the shortcomings of the above criteria.

Moreover, the interpretation of pain as a symptom in non-verbal
children, as it often manifests as self injury, aggressive outbursts,
sleep disturbances, and abnormal posturing, is notoriously difficult.
This interpretation requires an insight based upon the correlation of
symptoms, histological findings, and response of symptoms to
anti-inflammatory treatment. There is no evidence in the Baird et al.
paper that these crucial factors were taken into account. This study's
inappropriate symptom criteria would explain the discordance with
other reports that have revealed a high prevalence of significant
gastrointestinal symptoms in general autism populations2,3.

It is surprising that Dr Peter Sullivan, a co-author on the paper, who
presumably provided the above gastroenterological criteria, was not
aware of the aforementioned limitations. In his role as a Defendant's
expert in the UK MMR litigation, he will have had access to the
clinical records of autistic children with the relevant intestinal
symptoms and biopsy-proven intestinal inflammation.

We suggest that the authors might wish to reflect on the ethical
implications of setting the bar too high for the investigation of such
children by ileo-colonoscopy, with the attendant risk of missing
symptomatic, treatable inflammation.

Since the relevant MMR/autism children are considered to be those with
regression and significant gastrointestinal symptoms, the appropriate
stratification for between-group analyses of measles virus antibody
levels has not been conducted; therefore the paper is difficult to
interpret, adding little if anything to the issue of causation.
Moreover, it is a major error to have presumed that peripheral blood
mononuclear cells are a valid `proxy' for gut mucosal lymphoid tissues
when searching for persistent viral genetic material.

A further major problem in this study is the number of children who
dropped out or who were unable to provide adequate blood samples. We
know nothing about either the 735 children who were lost at stage two,
or the 100 children for whom blood samples were not available. At the
very least, we should be told whether the children who dropped out
were likely to be representative of those who stayed in, with regard
to the key issues of interest.

For reasons that will emerge in the near future, it would be of
interest to know whether siblings of autistic children were included
in either of the two control groups. This information is not provided.

As a general observation, this paper contributes nothing to the issue
of causation, one way or another. Case definition alone is likely to
have obscured the relevant group of autistic children. The study tells
us nothing about what actually happened to the children at the time of
exposure. We are increasingly persuaded that measuring things in blood
many years down the line tells us very little about the initiating
events in what is, in effect, a static (non-progressive)
encephalopathy unlike, for example, subacute sclerosing
panencephalitis, which is a progressive measles encephalopathy. The
gut is a different matter, and analysis of mucosal tissues has been
very informative, since here, in the relevant children, active
ongoing, possibly progressive[AV1] 4, inflammation has been identified.

References.

1.Wakefield AJ. Autistic enterocolitis: is it a histopathological
entity? Histopathology 2006;50:380-384.
2.Valicenti-McDermott M, et al. Frequency of Gastrointestinal Symptoms
in Children with Autistic Spectrum Disorders and Association with
Family History of Autoimmune Disease. Developmental and Behavioral
Pediatrics. 2006;27:128-136.
3.Horvath K, and Perman JA. Autistic disorder and gastrointestinal
disease. Current Opinion in Pediatrics. 2002;14:583?587.
4.Balzola F et al. Autistic Enterocolitis in childhood: the early
evidence of the later Crohn's disease in autistic adulthood?
Gastroenterology 2007;132:suppl 2, A 660.

CoteDAzur · 13/02/2008 17:29

Interesting. I didn't realize those were the criteria. Even more restrictive than we thought.

Did you manage to find & read the paper itself?

OP posts:
yurt1 · 13/02/2008 18:18

Not yet. I'll have a look when I'm back in work next week.

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