China - what’s going on?

[MarshaBradyo]

Anyone following what’s going on. It seems Covid restrictions ongoing are unrealistic but more than that with general dissatisfaction

Interesting to see after many thought they’d got it right, but also I really feel for them

What do people think

I worry that if this kicks off and Xi Jinping loses face and power domestically that he will invade Taiwan - which screws the rest of us because of the huge over dependence on microchips. If people thing the energy security issues following Russia’s war is bad, this would be worse on a whole other level.
www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/
So I think we do need to worry.

I really can't see him being that stupid. I know a lot of us would've said that of Putin 12 months ago, but he hadn't had the benefit of seeing his hope that the West would let it go disproved so effusively.

I recall posters applauding digital surveillance to control Covid, usually in SE Asia. Sensible posters would point out data law differences.

This place was overrun with extreme views on how great state control is. Many seem to have disappeared now, they were full on in a bad way.

Thanks for this post, interesting to hear from Shanghai

I also think we need to worry about China teaming up with Russia in an anti-Western allyshio. So far Xi Jinping has remained fairly neutral but the statement by Sunak about the relationship with China having cooled and these protests could and I suspect will tip him much more towards Russia now.

One more thing:

US, Dutch, and Irish embassies released warnings for people to stockpile food and drink for 2 weeks.

UK embassy: pretty useless. We get no support from them, they hang up on us when we call for help, and they don't stay up to date with the situation at all.

Everyone is panicking right now in the city because of the weekend

The Russian state can barely wipe its own arse at the moment.

@MarshaBradyo - I remember… and had to have a sabbatical from mumsnet, for sanity’s sake. Have been on here for years, but name change every month or so.

I think our UK government got away with it at the time, because our European neighbours were all doing similar, some slight differences of course, but everyone was at it.
China is now alone in these extreme measures and I really do think our leaders need to consider at least offering assistance/keep dialogue open etc.

@SirMingeALot - Putin is really suffering lack of support now including amongst previous loyalists - however, he will see this latest development in China as an opportunity for him, no doubt.
Just hoping we see the backside of both these leaders pretty soon and a new era for both Russia and China, and a rebuilding of the Ukraine.

they still have quite low coverage, lots of reluctant people, not much previous exposure and a strain that can't be contained without spectacular levels of repression
I heard one news report that was saying Xi is very keen to avoid mass deaths because this would make China look very bad on the world stage. Is that one of the things driving his need to lock everyone up?

I agree this is very concerning, however ...two men who want to be emperor of the world, would they be able to co-operate and form an alliance, surely each will need to dominate and it wouldn't work?

@Pikafee - there were rumours here that China actually snubbed Sunak’s proposed meeting at the G20 (because Sunak did not condemn militarisation of Taiwan by the US). Rather than sheer British incompetence, perhaps they are keeping a low profile so as not to antagonise China? I really do not think it is helpful to demonise Xi Jinping.

I was listening to something on radio 4 last night about the current Covid situation in China.
They mentioned that low uptake of vaccines was partly due to difficulty reaching poorer areas and also that they don't have family doctors so have to go to hospitals to get vaccine and there's distrust from the people plus doctors not have the medical history of vulnerable older people and not wanting to risk vaccination without that.

It's really hard to know, and I simply don't know enough about China to comment. Hong Kong was traditionally much more open and democratic than China - they were used to fair and reasonable court systems, journalistic freedoms, and being able to legally protest. All of that has been stripped away, and it is extremely difficult for Hong Kongers who don't see themselves as being just a part of China. HK also had the "Leave Home Safe" app, which was used to scan in and out of public places and restaurants. Ostensibly so that the health authorities could contact you if you had been in contact with someone who had tested positive for COVID. There was a huge distrust of how far, and what, the app tracked, with many young people refusing to use it. I would often deviate past Starbucks and take an order list from the youngsters hanging around outside, hoping for such a gesture. I'd go in, scan in my app, order 10 cappuccinos, and scan out, then hand them out outside. I was always paid promptly and thanked effusively. It was a lovely way to be able to briefly chat to people who otherwise would have mistrusted me (a gweilo). I learnt much from them :) The main take-away (excuse the pun), being to always write your lawyer's number in thick black marker along your arm. HK law stated that you had a right to one phone call when arrested, but there was no written obligation for the police to provide you with a directory or other means of finding a number, and your mobile phone was always the first thing that was taken away when arrested.

I get that impression.

The Chinese state spent a lot of time trying to position itself as having dealt with the matter better than the West, particularly in 2020-1. They had a clear interest in making it appear that the reason for the devastation was the handling of covid rather than the existence of the virus itself, given that it came from China and they covered it up initially.

Obviously the arse has now fallen out of that, because Omicron is incredibly transmissible and spread cannot be prevented without very restrictive measures. The sort that cause economic damage and risk mass protest. The best a society can do is have good vaccine coverage before that point, which they didn't.

But also, mass deaths would still be a problem even if nobody in the rest of the world gave the tiniest shit.

there were rumours here that China actually snubbed Sunak’s proposed meeting at the G20 (because Sunak did not condemn militarisation of Taiwan by the US).

Good for Sunak. Taiwan deserves our support. As did HK - for all the good it did.

But also, mass deaths would still be a problem even if nobody in the rest of the world gave the tiniest shit
Yes of course it would be very destabilising wouldn't it, leading to further protests etc and how to deal with all that without looking even worse on the world stage😕

Fwiw I don't see a realistic way through this for China that doesn't involve making the regime look bad on the world stage.

I think controlling people so they don’t protest but low vaccine uptake in elderly does seem at odds.

But maybe it is mostly hard to reach populations that are a barrier

All I can think of is that they reckon forcing more elderly people to be vaccinated with Sinovac isn't going to have enough benefit in terms of protection and reduction in deaths/illness to justify the anger it would cause. It also wouldn't remove the 'need' for restrictions because Omicron is still incredibly transmissible and even with a better quality vaccine it would still be really difficult to outrun the virus. Which is what they'd essentially have to do.

rock and a hard place then, push has come to shove....what WILL they do??
Presume Xi's highest priority is his personal power & reputation, how can he hold onto that while at the same time raining hellfire on the minions who wont obey?

There was a slight relaxation of rules this morning re taking people away.

Not sure if it will help much though

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64056549

WHO concerned over the evolving situation in China. German government sending mRNA vaccines to China.
Thing is in such a huge population, it impacts the whole world, not just financially, if Covid goes crazy in China. Possible significant mutations are a real issue.
India starting to get concerned.

edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/india/india-ramps-up-covid-measures-amid-china-surge-intl-hnk/index.html

Yeah, I'm sure India has got some quite imaginative suggestions of how to deal with China. 😁

This is all making Xi look very bad.... He won't be able to cope with that he fears loss of face above all else