Can anyone help me understand what’s happening in Afghanistan?

[clovercornflower]

I wondered if anyone might be prepared to explain it to me, a bit of an idiots guide if you like. I understand the basics, I think, but not all of the surrounding context and history.

My understanding so far is that the Taliban have taken over the government. The Taliban are an extreme Islamic group - correct so far?

I think you need to look a bit further back to the Afghanistan/ UDSSR (Russia) war back in 1979/80...
After that, the Taliban became a force to be reckoned with, funded by Pakistan.

there is so much more, I hope someone more knowledgeable comes along

@Rosiiiiie

Ironically, if you go back to the roots of the Taliban as a terror organisation, it was when the west (US especially) supported them to fight the Russian invasion of Afghanistan when the USSR was trying to enlarge the grip of communism

The Taliban were the ‘good’ guys because they weren’t communist, so their extreme religious ideology could be overlooked or minimised.

Having been supported into government, they became more and more extreme, and it was only when they started doing things like blowing up ancient historical sites and banning female education that there was widespread awareness of what a clusterfuck had been created.

In terms of Russia and Afghanistan now…
There is a large element of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ towards the US but Russia isn’t believed to be a major player behind the scenes with the Taliban in the way China and Pakistan are

The west used to fund the taliban to resist the USSR, when they invaded.

There hasn't really been a unified Afghanistan, as such. There were villages and regions and tribes that people identified as belonging to. Then Russia invaded and we funded resistance groups as part of the Cold War effort.

It's a vast country with inaccessible areas where people can hole up while waiting for the westerners to leave. People can also go to Pakistan. Then when the coast is clear, out they come and take over again. The cities are very different, culturally, from the rural areas.

@3luckystars

This thread is very helpful for someone like me too and thanks for the Newsround tip, that is the perfect level for me.

I’m just wondering, is it just Afghanistan that they want to take over, or do they want to rule the whole world their way?

There is probably not a united ideology or ambition among the leadership, let alone the entire organisation

Essentially, their roots are as a rag tag bunch of tribal leaders from tribes who rules various parts of the country, but put aside their local differences to go after the bigger prize of ruling the entire nation and therefore seizing control over other enemy tribes

They aren’t scholars of Islam. They are yokel leaders from deeply conservative and traditional parts of the country who are imposing what has been passed down to them by their yokel forefathers and therefore don’t know any other way - Violence and oppression to get what they want

The foot soldiers are just in it for the cash

They are rural yokels living hand to mouth who have been offered a fortune in their terms to go and fight.
They aren’t driven by ideology in the way that Isis fighters were
They are just in it for the regular paydays to stop their families starving to death, although they hold the same conservative and traditional views so it’s not a total leap to indoctrinate them into full Taliban thinking

I suppose an analogy would be that if you went to brexit heartlands and took a load of long-term unemployed brexiteers and offered them £100k a year to travel to London and asked them to surround schools to stop immigrant children going to lessons, it would be very easy to find them
Some would be prepared to even burn those schools down, and most would be prepared to turn a blind eye to the arson

It’s the same with these soldiers. The vast majority are not killing civilians and raping women, they are just riding around in Humvees waving guns
But they are prepared to overlook the killing in exchange for a decent wage they would have no chance of earning any other way

@SW1amp

The Taliban have been well-supported by Pakistan for years. Funded, allowed to hide (remember Osama Bin Laden’s assassination…) and given high level support, particularly by the Pakistan security service, which is probably more influential than the actual government

China and Pakistan are allies, due to a shared hatred of India, so the Taliban has also been getting support from China. That Chinese support, along with the billions the taliban makes each year from organised crime, meant they’ve been able to buy weapons, pay troops etc to mount a very well-organised coup of the government

It’s key that the Taliban sent an envoy of senior leaders to Beijing a few weeks ago, and that China was the first country to publicly say they weren’t closing their embassy - it’s their way of saying they see the Taliban as legitimate leadership of the country

In exchange, China will probably be awarded billions worth of contracts to build whatever evil projects the Taliban has planned

Thanks for the explanation, I had no idea of China's involvement, that's shocking. Another reason to try and stop buying items made China - it's hard, but some things can be made and brought elsewhere.

Radio 1 had a 15min segment last night at 5.45 (I was driving fo a lesson, hence knowing the time).
They said it wouid be available elsewhere for those who couldn't listen then. It was quite good - going back to 9-11, and briefly mentioning the war with Russia. Hopefully so sone mire tech savvy can locate it?

I was only half listening, but the bit that was new to me is half the population of Afghanistan was either a toddler or not yet born when 9-11 happened. They only know a country with western military present.

Also worth reading further back in history..
www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/asia-jan-june11-timeline-afghanistan

Afghanistan has been subject to repeated invasion for centuries, not least by colonial Britain to protect the routes to the empire in Asia. The area was significantly impact by the splitting of the Indian empire into the 'mainly' hindi state of India and the mainly Muslim state that comprised Pakitstan and Bangladesh which proved to be a disaster and was later separated.

And many of the comments above citing the involvement of Russia, Pakistan and China and ignoring the role of the US and the UK in arming various elements of the conflict over decades. In the same way as the West supported Sadam Hussein in Iraq and then when he did not behave in line with their directions, went to war against him.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War

"The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Kingdom; the conflict was aCold War-eraproxy war."

Western interference in middle eastern politics goes much further back than 2001 and is a sad relic of colonial wars, the legacy of the British Empire and continued interference by arming and funding the mujahideen in the 1970's has led to this.

There is no right answer to this situation but the west has failed to learn from previous mistakes in the region where arming rebels, regardless of who is arming the other side, does not lead to stability.

Afghanistan is essentially made up of states, a bit like the US, so peope generally value their state more than the union of those states.

During conflicts with the USSR the US funded and trained the taliban as at that time they were beneficial to the US. Thats why Russia are still very anti-taliban.

China and Pakistan are the talibans biggest allies, the governments that is, the people largely aren’t apart from a few small pockets. They provide money, equipment and hiding places. China is investing heavily in Afghanistan.

After 9/11 the UK and US meddled in Afghanistan, the US in particular supported their armed forces, however this support wasn’t designed to lead to long term independence. They focused on things like antimissile, airstrikes etc, despite the Afghan army not having access to these resources. An army is very expensive to maintain, Afghanistan simply doesn’t have the money needed to fund the size and type of force they need, as a result many soldiers (and other army members) haven’t been paid in months. Many soldiers are from very poor regions, their families can’t eat without that wage.

The taliban of course aren’t stupid, their first tactic aimed at more rural areas where residents weren’t protected by troops. If the taliban are in your area you can’t say no, if you do you and your family are dead. This then spreads around rural areas, so many soldiers returned home to try to protect their families. This left the remaining forces in cities even weaker, while the taliban were able to increase recruitment with fear and intimidation.

When the US troops left the remaining forces essentially collapsed, the US also removed vital equipment.

When the taliban enters an area your choices are generally support us/let us get on with it, or you’ll be killed.

The people of Afghanistan are completely powerless, the taliban are similar to the nazi regime in the way they treat civilians (minus death camps), they have similar views as well, just aimed towards a different group of people.

Why does Pakistan and china hate India?

Sorry thread moved on

A smattering of history here. I use old terminology as I was taught when I was young.
We the British did understand that the Afghans are 'different' to the Indians we found in India in the 18Century when we built up the trading deals that then later became the Empire.
East of The NW Frontier and Khyber Pass they are different to all the people from Quetta to Rangoon.

The Victorians tried again, sent an Army to Kabul, it took up residence and then was driven out back to Khyber with One survivor.

We remembered that, and kept out until the Russians moved in in 1980s. An old rumour about Russia wanting a route to the Indian Ocean was revived. It is total Bollocks, Bloody big mountains and a desert in the way. But it sufficed to get the US wound up.
Russia was unspeakably cruel - booby trapped toys to blow hands off children.
Us pours $$$millions to arm the Taliban who then drive out Russians. Partly because Russia is broke. Pre Putin.
Further reading: Wikipedia is as reliable as most textbooks on this, it gives sources at foot of the article. Fiction 'Flashman' the author well known for quality of research.

I found this a very insightful read.

It is written from a security and defence perspective but many of the points made resonated with me. Worth 5 minutes of your time if you're interested.

First few paras below.

There is anxiety in Whitehall about an Afghanistan inquiry. But this inquiry will not be like the 12-volume Chilcot report on UK involvement in Iraq. Nobody is alleging malign intent but there is a need to learn the lessons of failure and to rectify deficiencies before the UK next intervenes overseas, as it surely will.

The recent notion that the War on Terror is over and has been replaced by threats from state actors is both misleading and dangerous. Events in both Afghanistan and Mali demonstrate that the threat from Islamist extremism is far from over. Furthermore, Russia and China have learned from observing the West fail against the asymmetric threats posed by determined insurgencies. Russia’s actions in the Donbas, Syria and Libya and China’s in Hong Kong and the Himalayas have been informed by Iraq and Afghanistan.

In the daily turbulence of managing the campaign (and the simultaneous operation in Iraq) some of the following dilemmas were visible – but are naturally clearer in hindsight.

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/twelve-dilemmas-behind-uks-afghan-defeat

@ssd

Why does Pakistan and china hate India?

China and India have an ongoing border dispute, there are also issues with trade imbalances in Chinas favour.

The Pakistani government generally dislike India due to Britains partition, this caused the Kashmir conflict (and others), plus East Pakistan then became Bangladesh which was supported by India. Its essentially all caused by partition which was disastrous. Things were improving a bit in the early 2000’s, but then several terror attacks in India undid a lot of very good work between the two governments.

I think this is most likely a turning point for the West in meddling with other country’s politics even if they are killing their own people. We’ve got the history to prove it does no good, it’s expensive and always ends in criticism for us.

Place marking to read later

Thank you so much for this thread. Been trying to find out more.

Am I right in thinking the US and U.K. are bringing home any US or U.K. nationals and Afghans who have supported us? I'm seeing outrage that the planes are 'full of young men' but surely that's just because those are the likely demographics? We can't realistically expect to help every woman and child in a country of 40m escape can we? But then what can we do? Not us personally but the government? Presumably the only way is to do what we did 20 years ago but then presumably that would have to go on forever? Sorry if these are stupid questions

I was about to post the same link as ChateauMargaux about the time line, and add

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

The history matters - the taliban are playing to it.

China will not intervene directly (believes in peaceful co-existence, and opposed hegemony) but it will certainly up for investment, as it its pattern in so many other places. It will also want a stable and predictable government, for investment reasons, but won't really care much about how that government governs.

So that raises a question about whether China will formally recognise the new government. That would represent a major change since the fist taliban-led Islamic Emirate (1996-2001) when only 4 countries recognised the regime

Adam Curtis has amazing BBC documentaries on this subject such as Bitter Lake.

The history matters - the taliban were created by it.

@3luckystars

This thread is very helpful for someone like me too and thanks for the Newsround tip, that is the perfect level for me.

I’m just wondering, is it just Afghanistan that they want to take over, or do they want to rule the whole world their way?

Great question.

That's one I've been asking myself over the years. I've often wondered if terrify attacks in the uk by extremists are because our way of life differs.

I may be widely off track but I'd love to understand their motives.

@SW1amp

Ironically, if you go back to the roots of the Taliban as a terror organisation, it was when the west (US especially) supported them to fight the Russian invasion of Afghanistan when the USSR was trying to enlarge the grip of communism

The Taliban were the ‘good’ guys because they weren’t communist, so their extreme religious ideology could be overlooked or minimised

This isn’t quite correct. The Taliban formed after the soviet-afghan war. During the war the US and KSA financially and militarily supported the Mujahideen. There were seven main Mujahideen parties but not all backed by USA/KSA. Non of these were the Taliban however the Taliban did form links with some of the key members of this group - particularly Jalaluddin Haqqani (whose son is currently v senior Taliban)

Two of the seven accepted “Afghan Arabs” ie foreign fighter - including bin Laden - to join them. Because bin laden was so Rich (his father billionaire businessman) he was able to supply funding to the fighters. He ended up forming his own group - al-Qaeda.

But at end of soviet war, where the seven parties had been fighting in same side ie to get rid of Soviets, once Soviets left they all started vying for power. The country descended into huge levels of violence and tribal feuding with children being horribly abused. This is where Taliban stepped in

Taliban formed in Pakistan (near Afghan border) and were basically students from “Madrassas” - schools which teach fundamental Islam (again funding received from KSA but to my knowledge not USA). KSA is lead by royal family, however they are beholden to Wahhabi clerics who want to see as much fundamentalist Islam as possible, hence the KSA support). Once Taliban formed they started to take control - initially in south of Afghanistan. At that point because of the levels of violence being committed by feuding warlords, many people actually welcomed the Taliban as they very quickly reduced these levels of violence (by their brutal punishments as we all know about).

They gradually took over the country (complete control ~1996) but despite the mounting evidence of their oppression and brutality, the USA did not object to them being in power (interestingly there was oil involved - lookup Afghan oil pipeline). The Clinton administration turned a blind eye to the human right abuses.

In late 1990s al Qaeda emerged as a threat - embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. Al-Qaeda were based in Afghanistan- something the Taliban allowed, but there was always a bit of a power struggle. But after the bombings and the fact the Taliban wouldn’t hand over bin laden, the Clinton administration then decided Taliban were not acceptable.

Then 9/11 happened and with Taliban still refusing to hand over bin laden, war started.

Sorry this is so long and I should say I’m no historian and I’m only repeating what I read from books. I may not have got everything right, but my main point was - the USA/KSA did not find the Taliban during the Soviet-Afghan war.

Final point: the key country involved in all this is Pakistan: their military and security service (ISI) essentially protect the Taliban (and protected bin laden) so even when the civilian Pakistan government want to crack down on Taliban, they are not able to. Pakistan’s role (alongside China as has already been pointed out) is going to be fundamental to getting any form of resolution in this area.

It is an utterly desperate situation.

Taliban are mainly Pashtun, whose historical tribal lands were artificially (and recently) divided between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But I'm not sure if they really have aims for a wider state buying thise areas.

The main proponents of a bigger caliphate are ISIS (though that is still rooted in IRS region) and of course AQ which had close links to, and fluctuating cooperation with, both.

How thise groups will realign, now they have Afghanistan as a safe base, remains to be seen.

Completely agree. But I was berated on another thread for suggesting that the British Empire was linked to the mess that exists today!

Unintended consequences are everywhere…..

Thank you @Scautish for that added explanation. Yes, the freedom fighters in the Soviet Afghan war were not Taliban but they were funded by the west, adding to the instability and into this unstable vacuum stepped another armed group. The actors change but the cycle repeats.

This is an interesting thread. I would like to ask people's opinion. How do you think the Taliban were able to take over the country so quickly? What happened to the Afghan army?