'No Deal' How Bad Will it Be?

[KennDodd]

The only thing I'm sure about is that it will be the worse thing (apart from war) this country has been through for 60+ years. Talk me down, please Leavers give me some good news.

I'm not a leaver. However, my view is that it will be bad but not as bad as the worst predictions. It will be a lot worse than the idiots in the Tory ERG like Jacob Rees-Mogg seem to think. But I doubt things will grind to a halt to the extent that some people have suggested. It is in everybody's interests to keep many things going even if the legal agreements aren't in place.

Remember that we were supposed to get economic Armageddon the day after we voted to leave. We didn't. In fact the economy has performed reasonably well since then. Some of those who made "day after the vote" predictions are now saying they meant that the problems would start the day after we leave. They may be right this time but I wouldn't bet on it.

But in all honesty, I doubt we will leave with no deal. It is not impossible but I suspect what will actually happen is that, assuming the current deal is rejected by Parliament, May will get some cosmetic changes, MPs will realise that there is nothing better on offer from the EU and, after looking over the cliff edge, will vote it through at the second attempt.

I've been thinking, hoping, eating, sleeping, willing and praying for a NO DEAL since Day One Zero and want the EU to come back to the UK on bended knees after March 29 2019 begging for a deal! Meanwhile, I'm checking my phone every 5 mins to see when our little chicken prime minister is finally pushed off from a job that she clearly cannot do.

Talk about unrealistic! We have a lot more to lose from no deal than the EU. If we crash out with no deal there is absolutely no way the EU will end up coming to us on bended knees begging for a deal.

Yes people somehow think that the UK has less to lose then the EU (the UK does not even make up 10% of total economic power of the EU).

If it was Germany leaving then maybe the EU would be begging for a deal (The German economy is miles stronger then the UKs Germany can basically bankroll most of bloody Europe for gods sake). In contrast the UK cannot seem to even finds its own citizens.... And needs charities to do it for them.

I think the EU will probably be glad to see the back of us.

Nobody knows how bad it will be, but it will be bad.

One thing I know for sure - the people who caused this mess will be long gone. I hope whichever countries they resurface in suddenly tighten their immigration policies on Brexiters.

Are you really JRM Pete?

"Yes people somehow think that the UK has less to lose then the EU (the UK does not even make up 10% of total economic power of the EU). If it was Germany leaving then maybe the EU would be begging for a deal (The German economy is miles stronger then the UKs. . ."

Now, this is exactly a classic example of the mentality of a born loser - a natural defeatist! And what a shame for a country to raise a population (or part) of its citizens only too ready to turn over, take orders, and accepting second and third best whilst all the facts, figures, statistics and history suggest this is a country that can, and had proven previously, to rule the world and its waves. Your poor forefathers who had given their lives in those great wars to make this country 'Great Britain' must now be turning in their graves!

The UK may only be 10% of the total economic power of the EU's but the UK's economic power is equal to, or greater than, 19 of the EU's soon to be 27 countries COMBINED!!!

Giving up the EU - which only makes up appx 20℅ of the world economic power - releases the other 80℅ of world economies at our disposal. It's a no brainer!

And just so you know, the German economy is not "miles stronger than the UKs" - just ~30℅ or so stronger. And that's because we buy loads and loads from Germany. Look no further than this household for example. Both my present car, AUDI and the one immediately before, a VW*, were bought brand new. My kitchen and its equipments are all German products. I collect tools of all sorts (like someone would collect car badges) that are predominantly 'Made in Germany'. All this in part put Germany and her population where they are today. I'm more than happy to dump all this for a Japanese Honda, a Samsung kitchen and replace with all American tools after Brexit.

Not being funny when I say the EU will fall on their knees begging the UK for a deal after a 'No Deal' Brexit.

• VW went up in smoke in the middle of the road a day after a full service. Knowing what I know now about how VW was tampering with the emissions system to cheat on statutory regulations, can't say now I'm completely surprised.

We are not an economic minnow. We are the fifth largest economy in the world behind Germany (which is around 40% bigger than us according to the IMF and the World Bank), Japan, China and the US. This is part of why I don't believe the predictions of economic disaster regularly made by some remainers.

However, we are far more dependent on the EU than they are on us. Roughly 44% of our exports go to the EU and 53% of our imports come from the EU. In comparison, only 18% of the EU's exports come to the UK.

Putting it another way, in 2017 exports of goods and services from the UK to the EU made up 13.4% of our economy. Exports to the UK from the EU made up between 2% and 3% of the rest of the EU's economy.

Trade will not stop even if we exit with no deal. Exports to the UK from the EU would probably go down due to tariff barriers but it would not be the case that EU's economy would shrink by 2%-3%. Taking account of continuing trade and EU manufacturers moving production from the UK to mainland Europe, the IMF predict the EU's economy will lose 1.5% by 2030, which works out at growth reducing by a little over 0.1% per year. Most of the impact would fall on Ireland who would lose a little under 4% of GDP. Germany, on the other hand, would lose about 0.5% of GDP over 10 years, reducing growth by about 0.04% per year - nowhere near enough to trigger the kind of reaction you are confidently predicting.

Equally, our economy would not shrink by 13.4% but it would hit us proportionally much harder than it would hit the EU. Still not huge - perhaps 0.3% per year based on IMF projections - but a lot more than the EU, and hugely more than the larger countries within the EU. So I'm afraid the idea that the EU will fall on their knees begging for a deal is pure fantasy.

It will be very, very bad, and the leavers will tell us all that it's not their fault.

People talk about 27 countries in the EU but it is asymmetric. If you look at it on a country by country basis

Germany - exports a lot of manufactured goods. The mayor of Stuttgart in an interview said he was potentially looking at 155,000 workers laid off in his city

France - agricultural products rotting at the ports, new world wines taking all their trade - French farmers are an impatient bunch and might spend summer burning down Strasbourg

Spain - a vast tourist trade goes bust

Most of the rest little or no effect.