A "healthcare professional" has been arrested on suspicion of murdering eight babies and attempting to kill six others at a hospital.

[Magicpaintbrush]

Just saw this on the bbc website: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-44696813

If the person in question is guilty of this, well, horrific doesn't even begin to cover it.

The statistical significance I mean

@StealthPolarBear you'd hope so, although I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a significant change.

But that by itself wouldn't prove anything either. For those who aren't trained in statistics: a statistically significant result means that there is only a 5% chance that the result arose by chance, and a 95% chance that it didn't. But that, by itself, doesn't prove anything either. There is still a 5% chance that the finding is random statistical noise, and if something is causing it it could be something as simple as, say, equipment in NICU wearing out and performing poorly. Or experienced staff leaving and new ones starting. Or experienced staff leaving and not being replaced (sound like familiar scenarios to anyone in the NHS?).

You can't find your starting hypothesis in your data. If you find evidence that a single death is non-accidental, you can look at death rates and see if they're higher than expected to find out if other deaths might be too. But you can't have a start point of a higher than previous death rate and use it to prove that the deaths are non-accidental, because it's circular reasoning and there's no way to disprove it.

“Statistically significant” as a term is irrelevant here - these are actual total numbers of deaths, they aren’t based on a sample of a population.

I'm beyond shocked that the daily fail have printed her name and the bbc have printed her road.. surely it should be innocent until proven guilty?!

“Statistically significant” as a term is irrelevant here - these are actual total numbers of deaths, they aren’t based on a sample of a population.

The numbers they used to compare hospitals and identify this one as being high was based on deaths per thousand births. Statistical significance was entirely relevant to how this all started.

And statistical significance is also important in determining whether the death rate at this hospital has changed from year to year.

It is significant because an extra 4 or 5 deaths could be an unfortunate blip in a way an extra 40 or 50 is unlikely to be.

Where I work we had no maternal deaths in a decade then 3 in a year. Sometimes some awful (but not criminal) things happen in a run.

It would be awful for the nurse involved if they have just had a blip at this hospital and she’s been arrested just because she was the only nurse on every shift where a baby died. Obviously if she is a psychopath then that’s awful that she’s got away with it for so long.

As a Mum who had two babies prem In nicu it’s absolutely terrifying. You trust the staff with your life x

They've named the woman they've arrested now.

I have family who work at this hospital. The press have been camped out since 8am - vultures. I believe they have been knocking on doors in the road where the person lived to ask questions.

Just been reading up on this.

I hope they've got decent evidence because this has happened before with the stepping hill nurse and I doubt she ever recovered from that.

Shit sticks

Reading the new article my first thought was the Lucia de Berk case. I hope they have some conclusive evidence here and not just dodgy statistics.

Off to google Lucia de berk,

I am so surprised fewer people are discussing this! I am also furious that the press have released so much information on the person who has been arrested, some are even saying she would be Britain's worst child murdered but as yet there isn't any indication that she is guilty!! I honestly think she is innocent as there looks to be no evidence of any wrong doing given the prior investigations, just a lack of staffing etc.

I feel horrid for this poor women who will likely never work again in her dream professions, even if she is totally innocent all because she was tried by the media.

This is why the Leveson Enquiry should not have been ignored! The press still have carte blanche!

I’m astonished that the woman has been named and photographs of her published.

My gut feeling is that this is a huge fuck up by the police. I suppose they’re dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t......if they have an inkling something like this is happening and don’t arrest the person and they go on to kill another baby that would be awful.

But I think she will end up being released without charge or found not guilty after a trial. And if this happens the parents will also suffer, they will always wonder now if their children died from natural causes which is bad enough or were murdered but just not enough evidence to convict. The nurse will probably never work again. People will be put off working in a NICU.

I remember that poor woman who was arrested at Stepping Hill, then released as it became clear it wasn't her. Didn't stop the newspapers printing photos, family information, details about how much she enjoyed partying, relationships and so on. Ruined her life. I find it bizarre that so much information has been released here when a very thorough review by medically trained professionals found no evidence of foul play - how are the police more knowledgeable about this than the doctors who investigated it previously? That's the bit I don't really understand.

As a registered nurse I'm shocked that they've named the woman, and the media have shown her house, her picture etc.

As far as I can understand she has been arrested but not charged, so why on earth are her details public knowledge?

If guilty then she will be tried accordingly.

If innocent her life will be ruined; she'll be unlikely to work as a nurse again and no doubt she'll be vilified. The mob mentality of the great British public means she'll be hung drawn and quartered for being a "baby killer". They'll remember her name but if released without charge they won't remember that part. Mud sticks.

Let's hope they get to the bottom of this soon, for her, her friends and family, her colleagues, and the parents of those babies.

Agreed Sidge. Trial by media already, guilty or not. Nurses (and other HCP but particularly nurses) are held to higher standards. We are either ‘angels’ or ‘devils’.

I can't help but wonder, if she wasn't white, blonde, young and pretty, would people be doubting the arrest so much?

I can't help but wonder, if she wasn't white, blonde, young and pretty, would people be doubting the arrest so much?

What you just posted is the first I've heard of what she looks like. I'm doubting the arrest because I'm dubious about what police could have found after the fact to make a murder case when a thorough medical investigation didn't turn anything up.

I can't help but wonder, if she wasn't white, blonde, young and pretty, would people be doubting the arrest so much?

You mean like Beverley Allitt was 30 years ago? I don’t think there’s any doubt that young, female, pretty, blonde nurses can do atrocious acts. But something just doesn’t seem to add up here, though I fully accept that the police may well have more evidence than they’ve disclosed.

Though of course in the case of the Stepping Hill nurse they didn’t. And like I’ve previously mentioned the fact that prior investigations found do evidence of wrong doing and there will be no scientific evidence now makes me wonder what evidence they possibly could have.

Just googled Beverley Allitt - I was too young to register it at the time, but what a horrific case. All her victims were tragic but I was especially struck by the little twins - one died and the other left severely brain damaged. Those poor parents. I noticed she has to serve a minimum sentence of 28 years, which means she could be released in just 3 years time.

ajas how bloody ridiculous!!