"10% improvement, for example, has come up a number of times - but what form could that improvement take?"
In 9 patients with a different (but related) condition, ONE was able to have the ventilator removed, and a further FOUR were able to reduce their need for ventilation. As I understand it, THAT is the source of the 1 in 9 off the ventilator (1/9 = 11.1recurring per cent approx 10%), and the 11 to 56% chance of improvement (since 5/9 equals 55.5 recurring per cent, approx 56%) that have appeared in the papers.
These cases are for improvement as regards ability to breath unaided, and not like Charlies case, where the brain is involved as well. But IF the therapy worked and helped with muscles, there is then the issue of can it pass from the blood to the brain (very little info, I think lab tests and a figure of 50/50 chance quoted, but no one really knows). Then we have what effect it will have on brain cells AND would that have any impact on Charlies ability to experience anything..........
Hence Hirani and the some number bigger than zero but not able to say how big that I think we had in tweets from the court case the other day:
So, Joshua Rozenberg tweeted:
"NY expert: the 10% change would be in muscle strength. Small but significant chance of improvement in encephalopathy."
"slowing of progession of disease in mice is the basis for expecting small but significant chance of brain improvement."
"Judge: what’s “small but significant”? Expert: depends how much brain damage is structural and I can’t assess that."
BTW I don't know if the 10% quoted above is change in muscle strength, or chance of improvement in muscle strength.
Ah, here we go, the initial quote from Hirani:
"NY witness: since April we’ve evaluated more data. I estimate chance of success to be at least 10%. Of 9 patients on ventilators, one is off..."
"NY witness: treatment shows 11% to 56% chance of clinically meaningful improvement in muscle strength, measured by time on a ventilator."
That's the 1 of 9 off the ventilator, 4 with reduced time on figures I used at the start. I assume Joshua Rozenberg is fairly reliable with his tweets..................