Gove stands for Conservative leadership

[claig]

Very good news. He has principles and integrity, a great mind, a great sense of humour as well as having conservative principles and progressive ones. I think he will win.

Murdoch and Dacre will probably back him.

It does not go to a Tory membership vote if the MPs back May and there is no second contender so it might even be as easy as that. I have always supported May. There are lots of untrue stories out there whipped up. When I mentioned her to my teenage sons they said everyone at school says she's "racist" which I am absolutely sure she is not. Also there are a good few men who will dislike any female politician just because she's female.

May is sensible, will be just the right fit for the country at the moment and is 59 which is a good age go gain power. You have life experience by then and can do a good job and she can take us through to 2020 although she's very brave. It is a huge legal mess as to whether we can join the EEA, EFTA or have some kind of different deal or no deal with the EU and she is probably going to have to deal with a lot of legal challenges over things like Scotland, Northern Ireland, never mind whether she can serve an Art 50 notice without the backing of UK (and Scottish) Parliaments.

claig, you wouldn't think Gove had improved standards if your child went to one of the numerous failed academy schools Gove threw money at; nor indeed one of the schools that couldn't do basic repairs because Gove wanted to keep the money for his friends in the academy chains.

What a time to be alive.....

prh Happy to stand corrected on domestic protection orders.

However, won't be convinced that she's any kind of progressive. She's voted against many LGBT issues, she's in favour of reducing the abortion limit and she's overseen appalling conditions at Yarls Wood. Her immigration policies are pretty dire too (see earlier reference to racist van).

Gove may be divisive but think he's the strongest candidate to take us out of Europe.

Gove has neither principles nor integrity; he also lacks competence, witness his removal from the shambles he made in Education.
Plus, do you want another Cherie Blair interfering from the sidelines?

I don't trust Gove. May; I don't think she is good at her job atm, so wouldn't choose her. Liam Fox all the way.

Liam Fox all the way

It won't be Liam Fox. No-one apart from the extreme right of the Tory party likes him. He won't make the final ballot.

My view is that the ballot (if it gets that far) will be May vs Leadsom. Given Leadsom's lack of experience I would expect May to win.

Liam Fox has been impressive during the Brexit campaign (and my opinion of him has gone up) as has Iain Duncan Smith. But Fox did used to seem to be one of the crazies who was a bit to easily swayed by others to push for warlike talk etc and I think a cooler head and more diplomatic nature would be more sensible.

Andrea Leadsom is excellent, but I agree that she hasn't got May's experience or the backing of the Daily Mail.

Liam Fox.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/8828141/Liam-Fox-resigns-following-Adam-Werritty-revelations.html

won't be convinced that she's any kind of progressive

Many on the left define "progressive" as meaning someone who agrees with left wing policies, which rules out all Conservatives automatically.

In terms of the candidates, positioning them from left to right you would get:

Crabb - May - Gove - Leadsom - Fox

That does not mean all Crabb's positions are to the left of May - unlike her, he voted against gay marriage, for example. Similarly there will be some policy areas where May is to the right of Gove, possibly even to the right of Fox. But in broad brush terms that positioning is about right.

May is/was Remain so how can she exit us from the EU?

I think May was reluctant Remain. I think she will accept "the will of the British people" and get us out. Quite a lot of Leavers who supported Boris have now switched to May.

Oh my goodness. Right now it really is a case of the least worst choice isn't it?

My instincts are that it should be Theresa May simply because:

1. She is slightly pro-remain which means she's probably in a better frame of mind to want to get a better deal out of the EU than Gove who seems like he just wants to fuck things up even more.
2. She had the sense to keep her head down during the campaign. At the time it seemed like she was hedging her bets but now it almost seems like a stroke of genius compared with the rest of her colleagues.
3. Gove is about as popular with teachers as a dose of herpes and just seems quite extreme in his views
4. Slightly worried about the leaked email about having to have support from Rupert Murdoch.
5. He's shown how loyal he is with both Cameron & Boris. Loyalty in my mind is crucial. He's shown his only loyalty is to himself. How can we trust a prime minister who has shown he will betray everyone around him to get ahead?

Marina Hyde has it: In the Tory laundry basket, Michael Gove is the dirtiest item

"Gove wanted to talk a lot about the things that have made Britain 'the greatest in the world'. Unfortunately, everyone else wanted to talk about the things that have just made Britain the greatest laughing stock in the world."

Theresa May at least appears to be competent and not delusional.
That puts her ahead of all the Tory smalls fighting in their smelly laundry basket

Isn't it terrifying that the best option the ruling party can offer is someone who doesn't actually appear to be delusional?

Yes, but just as terrifying is that HM official Opposition party is busy slitting its throat too.

The main basis of our democratic system is that we have checks and balances.
The system depends on the Opposition stepping up and kicking out - or at least effectively opposing - a disfunctional government.

Beyond 2020, it is possible that one or both parties may be decimated.
< dons paranoid hat > Did both main parties really choose to commit suicide at the same time - of their own accord ?

Who will replace them ? The official Murdoch Party vs the official Arron Banks party ?

This is probably the most disfunctional, irresponsible government since Universal Suffrage and we have the most disfunctional, irresponsible main opposition at the same time.
And we are in our worst peacetime crisis post-WW2.
100% self-inflicted, by electorate and politicians alike.

The Scots, NI & Gibralter would be wise to leave us to it. Some stupidity is beyond forgiveness.

Jesus, talk about rogues gallery

Theresa May is pandering to the Tory racists in hopes they will support her for the leadership. There is no other explanation for her execrable remarks about using people as pawns in the upcoming negotiations.

She has also shown her complete disdain for the ECHR. UK contempt for that institution has been a major problem confounding efforts to establish norms of civil society in Europe and the wider European sphere (Georgia, etc).

As a politician and as a country with pretensions to significance, the attitudes you hold and the postures you adopt have consequences. Theresa May has shown that her only concern is herself and the narrow interests she represents.

The rest are slime too.

The official Murdoch Party vs the official Arron Banks party?

That is exactly where all this is headed. You lie down with dogs, etc.

There is no other explanation for her execrable remarks about using people as pawns in the upcoming negotiations

Disagree.

Guaranteeing the right of EU citizens to remain in the UK post Brexit at this stage risks a rush of people entering the country. It may or may not be a big rush but it certainly could happen. That is clearly not what many of those who voted Leave want the government to deliver.

The idea floated by some journalists that if we guarantee the right of EU citizens to stay in the UK a grateful EU will guarantee the right of UK citizens to remain in the EU is naïve in the extreme.

Like it or not, these are things that have to be negotiated. It may be distasteful but that is how the world works I'm afraid. I expect the outcome will be an agreement that UK citizens currently living in the EU and EU citizens currently living in the UK can remain where they are. But it would be poor negotiating to guarantee the right of EU citizens to remain in the UK when we don't yet know the view the EU will take on UK citizens currently living in the EU.

Why would people rush to the UK?

The economy is about to go down the toilet. The NHS is about to be sold off to the highest bidders, along with other social services. Until Britain officially leaves the EU there can be no trade deals negotiated with other countries. Britain is about to enter a period of several years of economic uncertainty at best, recession at worst. Investment in businesses is not likely to happen.

The rush is likely to be the other way around. Friends who are there are all counting the days until their Irish passports arrive in the post.

I voted Remain but I do not agree with your analysis of the situation. The economic outlook depends what the government and the Bank of England do. And even if the economic outlook is poor it is still better than some of the poorer countries in the EU so, with our generous welfare benefits, the UK is still likely to pull people in.

Note that we CAN negotiate trade deals with other countries before leaving. We can't sign them but we can have them lined up ready to go.

I think Theresa May is probably a shoo-in for PM, but would expect/hope her to appoint prominent leave proponents to big jobs. As she was (almost/just) in the remain camp, she needs to reflect the majority vote. I'd give Leadstom the Chancellor's job and another Brexiteer Foreign Secretary. And make Michael Gove her deputy so he can stab an oar in anywhere. For home secretary, her most able deputy is perhaps the best choice, and she is best placed to know who that is.

Given the information that has emerged today about Leadsom (it appears her claims of having managed enormous teams and billions of pounds are false and that her City background was in much more junior roles than she claims) and her previous, shall we say, imaginative financial arrangements I would certainly not make her Chancellor.

The anti welfare and anti-European Court of Human Rights ideologues are now running the Tory show. Welfare and labour rights are in the crosshairs even before economic growth slows or goes into recession.

The UK's credit rating has been downgraded, meaning it will cost the UK more to borrow to keep the country ticking over.

Osborne has stated his budget surplus goals for 2020 will now not be reached.

Tax revenues will fall if growth slows or stops and if tax generating sectors of the economy up sticks and leave for Frankfurt or Dublin. Borrowing money will cost more. The government is already predisposed to cuts and even to selling off the NHS.

The economic outlook depends on how competitive UK products and services can be in new markets and how quickly those new markets can be developed. That means costs including labour costs have to be kept as low as possible.