Visa-Free travel for Turkish Nationals is looking like a reality now, according to Der Spiegel. Does this impact your thoughts on Brexit?

[Rainbunny]

I have been continuously on the fence about the referendum, perhaps most recently I would vote to stay. Everytime I think I have come to a decision though, I read something new that concerns me and puts me straight back on the fence. Today I read an article in Der Spiegel that alarmed me. It looks like the EU (well, let's be honest - Merkel) may well grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens despite the fact that Turkey won't meet EU conditions (including the fact that their passports and paperwork are not up to EU standards - so fraud will be a VERY REAL issue.)

It has come down to this apparently, Erdogan get's visa-free travel or he will sink the refugee deal. Simple as that. Which way do think the EU (Merkel) will go? I'm not optimistic. Honestly, does this not concern you regarding our future in the EU?

"...Gareth Jenkins, a prominent British expert on Turkey, believes that a substantial number of Turks would come to Europe and either apply for asylum or disappear into the underground economy, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, where so many Turks have relatives. There are already 400,000 internally displaced refugees within the Kurdish regions of Turkey as a result of the civil war-like conditions there. Many are dirt poor, Jenkins says, "but whether by finding it themselves or borrowing it from others, even they would be able to find enough money to get a passport and pay the 70 to 80 it costs for a one-way flight on a budget airline from Turkey to Germany..."

www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-at-pains-over-visa-free-travel-for-turks-a-1090040.html

I read in Reuters that visa free access to the Euis part a deal to control migration across the waters to Greece.

So we have the entire population of Turkey with free access to Europe whilst the Syrians are stuck in Turkey.

Visa free access to Schengen for visits up to 90 days does not mean that Turks have the right to come and live and work in the Schengen area. Those implying that it does either do not understand the difference or are trying deliberately to mislead.

The UK is not part of the Schengen travel area so Turkish nationals will continue to need a visa to travel to UK even for short term visits. The EU cannot impose any change in this status. It would require a change to the EU treaties which can only happen with UK consent.

The points about Turks travelling to Europe to get forged EU passports are absurd.
If illegal migrants want to get a forged document they can do that outside the Schengen area.

Even if Turkey were to fulfill the requirements for EU membership - highly unlikely in the forseeable future - they can only join if the Treaties are changed. Again this will require UK consent. As with other new Member States, there would be transitional arrangements relating to freedom of movement of workers. So realistically we are talking of a time scale of 40 years plus. Do not forget that UK was one of only a handful of countries which decided not to impose transitional arrangements for workers from Eastern European countries. That was our choice.

Of course, if we vote for BREXIT we will no longer have any say in these issues and the rest of the EU will do as it wishes. If we wish to remain part of the EEA we will, like other non EU EEA, members have to accept the freedom of movement regulations applied throughout the EU.

"desire to emigrate actually seems to be around 13%, which is actually on the low side considering Turkey's socio-economic level. That said, 13% of 78.7 million people is not to be sneezed at."

From your link:
"In the World Poll, Turkey is considered as part of South East Europe where 16 per cent of adults want to migrate while in Europe overall 18 per cent of adults are willing to emigrate. In this regard, Turkey’s figure stands relatively below the World and European averages... On the European side, all of the four main destination countries for Turkish migrants have much higher levels of desire to migrate. The poll data shows a strikingly higher percentage of adults desiring to leave the UK (30 per cent)."

In other words, there is a difference between people saying that hypothetically they would want to emigrate for a poll and actually doing it. No visa keeps 30% of all UK residents from emigrating but they aren't. And neither will 13% of all Turks when the visa requirement for travel lifts.

Chardonnay - re "So what you are saying is that if Turks didn't have the hassle of visas and could move to Europe freely, so no need to get fake anything, then half of Turkey would be empty?"

No, that is not what I'm saying. Do you know the meaning of the word "inclination"?

No visa keeps 30% of all UK residents from emigrating but they aren't. And neither will 13% of all Turks when the visa requirement for travel lifts.

I would hazard a guess that most of the UK's 30% want to go to places such as USA/Canada/Aus/NZ - but don't fulfil the entry requirements for migration. That's what's stopping them. If Turkey joins the EU, there will be no entry requirements, so all of those that wanted (most of the 13%?) could migrate wherever they liked within the EU.

Ease and inclination, you said.

With unemployment of over 10%, a minimum monthly wage of around 425Euro, a growing Islamisation and the Kurdish problems, I would strongly disagree with your views. there's more than enough to provide inclination for millions.

Many Turks have rediscovered their Bulgarian roots after Bulgaria joined the EU, just because they were inclined to come to Europe and had the ease of an EU passport.

Limer - Turkey is not joining the EU. Definitely not anytime soon and imho not ever, for all the reasons already said on the thread.

Chardonnay you are adding 2 and 2 and making 72.

Turkish nationals are being offered short term visa free access to the Schengen common travel area. That will be a boon for the many welathy Turks who travel regularly to Europe. That does not mean they can live and work there or receive benefits there. It's just like Brits going on holiday to the US. They go and then they go home again.

UK is not part of the Schengen common travel area so this will not impact on UK.

The fact that people have expressed a wish to emigrate does not mean they will emigrate. It certainly does not mean they will emigrate without the correct papers to lead a precarious life as an illegal migrant. Again, many Brits would like to settle in the States. They don't because without the right skill set they won't get the right visa.

If some Turkish nationals have an entitlement to Bulgarian EU citizenship then they can indeed travel to EU to live and work. That's just like the small group of Americans, Australians and other Commonwealth who can claim British or Irish citizenship. One does not hear many complaints about them. Or the Brits who can claim US citizenship. Its not a huge group and will make little difference to UK migration. Most Turks who can travel to EU prefer Germany.

Has Boris Johnson given up his US citizenship yet? Or is he still hanging on to it so his DC can emigrate at some stage?

I think the concern is that many people will come to European countries on tourist visas, and then disappear into the black economy.

"The fact that people have expressed a wish to emigrate does not mean they will emigrate. It certainly does not mean they will emigrate without the correct papers to lead a precarious life as an illegal migrant."

Oh, I have no doubt that a lot of people who say they would "like" to emigrate are talking through their hats.

But if you don't realize that a lot of people emigrate with the correct papers and live underground, you are misinformed; this is a well-recognized and widespread issue, when you are talking about people from countries where there is a big socio economic gap. It is the whole reason why up to now Turks have had to produce all sorts of paperwork (proof of income etc.) in order to get a tourist visa.

The fact that Brits don't run off trying to get into the States is a very odd point to make. People from developed countries don't usually try to illegally emigrate into other developed countries. for the obvious reason that they do not have a strong enough incentive to do so.

@NewStatesman

But you have not addressed the point about UK not being part of the Schengen common travel area. So even if Turks were to overstay in Schengen (and I am not convinced this would happen on a large scale but let's leave that to one side) they would not be able to get to UK.

And the EU destination of choice for Turks is Germany.

Yes, I agree that most would head straight to Germany, due to the large number of Turks and Turkish-Germans living there. So I suppose it would not have so much impact on the UK... probably. I feel bad for the Germans, though.

Well I think you can stop worrying about the Germans. They have full employment and their economy is doing very well. They welcome migrants given their demographic problems.

If you want to inform yourself about Turkish migration to Germany, this is worth a read. You will see it presents a much more complicated picture than that presented by the anti migrant lobby. Flows are in two directions and the only big increase in Urkish migrants is among those looking to access tertiary education.

www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCM_Emigration-Germany-FINAL.pdf

"[ Migration of ] Turkish nationals from Turkey to Germany has steadily declined since the 1980s in part due to rising economic prospects in Turkey—with the only exceptions being Turkish students seeking out tertiary- level education in Germany and intracompany transferees. Immigration through family reunification channels has fallen by three-quarters since 2000; asylum applications dropped from nearly 9,000 in 2000 to just 1,800 in 2014. Meanwhile the smaller flows of Turkish migrants entering Germany are increasingly higher skilled than earlier movements....."

Turkey, then Serbia, then Macedonia, then Albania.

I mean, what could go wrong?

Oh yes, just like the 15 000 immigrants from Poland that were expected when the restrictions fell.

No one can predict the numbers and they have been consistently much higher than the official forecasts.

Turkey is not entering the EU. There will be no right to move and live where they want, like with Poland.

UK isn't even in the Schengen zone, where visa-free short-term stay will be possible for Turks.

The hysteria is quite unwarranted.

@Cote: exactly.

I really do not understand whether the hysteria lobby are genuinely unable to grasp the difference between short term stays in Schengen and a permanent move to UK - or whether they are deliberately trying to exaggerate concerns.

I think it's a bit of both. Mostly lack of information, though.

"I think the concern is that many people will come to European countries on tourist visas, and then disappear into the black economy."

And has that happened?

I think you will find that interest in the EU has dampened quite a bit in Turkey in recent years. While EU has been in the grip of an economic recession, Turks have seen their GDP per capita triple since 2000. And support for EU membership has dropped from 73% in 2004 to 28% in 2014.

The European Commission's main goal at the moment seems to be 'empire building', eg becoming as big as possible. This involves expanding wherever possible, eg Ukraine, Turkey etc. This further erodes the power of individual nations.

In spite of everything what is happening in Turkey, I have totally no doubt that visa free travel will go ahead and in the next 5-10 years Turkey will become a full member. Another step towards the United States of Europe, more power for the Commission and Brussels' bureaucrats. Sign of the times.

I don't think that it will necessarily result in many Turks moving to Britain (or other European countries). They will at least initially not qualify for benefits and will not be allowed to (legally) work here. So I expect that this is the least of your worries.

What concerns me is the fact that Brussels (especially European Commission) takes major decisions and potentially irreversible decisions affecting us and our children's futures and we have no say. If we do have a say, like the Ukraine referendum in the Netherlands, they simply ignore it. Not much sign that they believe in democracy, so yeah, might as well let Turkey join the club then!

TheNewStatesman I feel bad for the Germans too. The far right are ever-present, and don't need much of an excuse to kick off.

I lived in Turkey for many years, speak the language and love the country, but there is no way it belongs in Europe, either geographically or culturally. The visa thing is worrying too and Turkey does not meet the conditions it's supposed to , but that seems to be swept under the carpet.

Ffs nobody is saying that Turkey beings in Europe, geographically or culturally. Turkey isn't in Europe. It isn't acceding to EU membership.

It's just that Turks are going to be able to visit Europe for holidays. That is it. You will survive. Seriously.

The UK is not in Schengen.

People from Turkey will still need a visa to visit the UK unless we change our rules.

No.

The Turkey issue is irrelevant to me.

We might have to accept it out of the EU because of the need to compromise for trade anyway.

Will we have to Brexit Eurovision as well? That would be a shame. Perhaps we can have a Norwegian-style settlement on that as well. Say we could enter some big-chorus songs sung by someone who came third on X Factor, but we could promise never to win again.

Oh, hold on...