is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

Nobody knows...

Maybe it's willful blindness, maybe it's just enjoying the fun of Trump.

I've asked before what has Trump ever done for America, or for others, that was not making money for himself, but no real answer so far.

Globalisation & outsourcing have seriously reduced workers' power, but so has automation: I have seen massive effects from this over my life.

My shopping trips as a child were to umpteen little shops. Now it's not just supermarkets but online shopping.
Automated Amazon is so much more labour-efficient than high street shops.

All the bank clerks used (one-fingered slow) typewriters for each withdrawal or transfer. Now online banking, or at least highly automated.
When I started work, we had many secretaries to take dictation and type letters also on typewriters - I had to pay a professional scientific typist for my Phd thesis in 1982 and she took several days, with all the complicated maths & science symbols.
Anyone can type now, but it was a real skill then and quite laborious
Reearchers spent days hunting through physical books on libraries, instead of an hour on the Internet. So many lower level jobs don't exist and there are fewer mid-level.

All the factories, e.g. cars, where a robot on the production line performs many repetitive tasks that several workers used to do.
The Telegraph says 10 million UK jobs, about ⅓ of all jobs, are at risk of automation within 20 years.
The Atlantic discussed consequences for the US of automation & globalisation.
In 1964, AT&T, was worth $267 billion in today’s dollars and employed 758,611 people.
Now Google is worth $370 billion, but has only 55,000 employees worldwide.

Automation will affect even the lowest waged, poorest countries, e.g. The FT says automation threatens 85% of jobs in Ethiopia.

I saw the UK working week fall to 40 and then 35 hrs, but that trend has reversed and many UK jobs now have presenteeism and long hours, following the US model.
In contrast, in Germany & France the working week remains 35 hrs or sometimes optionally 40 hrs (with extra pay) - much more civilised.

' You cannot possibly be serious'

I am serious and so is Trump which is why they are all so petrified of him. If they thought that Trump was no threat to them, they would not be trying their best to stop him.

'you do realise don't you that Trump not only sells merchandise (hats and ties from China, suits from Mexico, among many other things) not made in the US by US workers, but also has a history of "importing" seasonal labour to work at his Mar-a-lago country club in Florida where they earn less than the US minimum wage?'

Yes, he did that, although I am not sure about paying less than the US minimum wage. But he did that because that is how the current system is set up and he says you can't compete when other hotels are doing the same and other companies are doing the same. He thinks it is wrong that he could buy the "puppet" politicians with donations but did it because everyone else did it too and that is how the system works, but having seen it from the inside, he has said it is wrong and he is going to change it. The rest of the political class won't change it because they are "puppets" who are "bought and paid for" by the lobbyists. He isn't., he "bought" them.

'why has he not begun using US-only labour for his clothing lines and to run his country club(s)? '

Because his business would fail because it would be unable to compete with his competitors who were offshore in the same way that Apple's products are made overseas. But he has said he will change all of that, stop China using competitive devaluation, rewrite the trade deals, impose tariffs if necessary and get Apple to make their products in the US again.

Okay, the phrase "word salad" has just wandered through my brain searching for something to connect with. Am also beginning to suspect that 'claig' translates to 'I am Trump' in some heretofore-unknown language.

So, at most Trump can try to reduce outsourcing - I don't think he'd succeed.
No chance of stopping automation. Anyway, we'd need reversal, not just stopping, to regain all those decent jobs that required no / low skills.

But even if Trump has to compete at a commercial level, where are his charity donations?
Or, if he doesn't want to support those who don't work, or are sick, where is the specific investment in job creation in the US that is not merely for profit?

'at most Trump can try to reduce outsourcing - I don't think he'd succeed.
No chance of stopping automation. '

You are underestimating Trump. Davos is davostated by Trump, they know he can do it and that he will do it.

"Davos elite alarmed at prospect of nominee Trump"

www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-trump-elite-idUSKCN0UZ2MD

Their whole game will change.

Trump can easily end automation if he wants by taxing companies that use it and penalising its use if they don't employ people instead of robots. All of societies problems can be solved with leadership that has a will to control what companies can do and where they can relocate and what tariffs they have to pay.

'where are his charity donations?'

He donates to lots of charities and helps lots of people but doesn't publicise it for his self-aggrandisement.

'where is the specific investment in job creation in the US that is not merely for profit?'

In Iowa a comapny moved out and its suppliers were going to go under. Trump read about it and got his companies to buy the produce so it stayed in business.

'A 66-Year-Old Widow’s Farm Faced Foreclosure… Then Trump SAVED THE DAY!
...
But Donald Trump saw the story on NBC Nightly News, and he swung into action

Trump said he yelled at the banker holding the mortgage, “You listen to me. If you do foreclose, I’ll personally bring a lawsuit for murder against you and your bank, on the grounds that you harassed Mrs. Hill’s husband to his death.”

Trump reached out to Atlanta-business Frank Argenbright, and they both put up the money with the Federal Land Bank for a 30-day option to buy the farm. The auction was called off with only two hours to spare!

During that time, a donation drive helped raise the money to pay for the farm, largely thanks to Trump bringing attention to the cause and his connections to radio shows.

www.thepoliticalinsider.com/a-66-year-old-widows-farm-faced-foreclosure-then-trump-saved-the-day/

but doesn't publicise it for his self-aggrandisement.
That would be a first.
What about his own charity? He's given a couple of millions. Less than other contributors.

That story about the farm clearly contradicts the statement that he doesn't publicise his charity actions.
Then, he didn't buy the farm himself, although it was expected he'd have the money to do so. He get someone else with him and then got other people to cough up the cash. But he was the one on the photos burning the debt documents.

This link has been posted before about Trump's noncharitable side.newsexaminer.net/politics/donald-trump-the-least-charitable-billionaire/

'That story about the farm clearly contradicts the statement that he doesn't publicise his charity actions. '

Because that story made news, but Trump helps people and donates to charities which he keeps private and which are not publicised in the newspapers.

'He get someone else with him and then got other people to cough up the cash'

Yes, but the widow didn't mind. Trump is a businessman, if he can get someone else to pay using his promotional skills then he will. As he says in his rallies "all my life I have been greedy, greedy, greedy, but now I am going to be greedy for the American people". He says he hates spending his own money on his campaign when rich people are offering him money, but he refuses to take it.

You know what they say about leopards and spots...

They should use Clearasil Ultra Rapid Action? Yes I know that

You know what they say about leopards and spots...

...never mix small and large patterns?

Just don't wear animal prints!

Congratulations to Trump (Ivanka) for the, ahem, "jewish baby" [sic] .

John Kerry is now intervening and pointing out how world leaders are worried about the Republican candidates. Trump and Cruz.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/27/john-kerry-presidential-campaign-embarrassment-cruz-trump
It's not really the "establishment", it's sensible people really.

I think The Donald is not familiar enough with Judaism to realise that Jewishness is determined by the maternal lineage, so unless Ivana's mother is Jewish which I don't believe she is...just another in a long string of foot in mouth moments. Ah, no, wait, let me guess: "I love the Jews. The Jews are great, they do great things, great work for me, Jews love me!"

Lweji, yes, sensible people educated in economics, international relations, foreign policy (and dare I say it, a bit of psychology as well?) who keep pointing out the holes (and neon-bright signs of at least one personality disorder) in you-know-who's plan to "Make America Great Again" - a plan, incidentally, at which a large number of Americans, non"elite", non"establishment" Americans, plain old middle and working class folks like DH, me and our families (mine working-class, his UMC) roll our eyes at every time it's brought up. Frankly, many of us are tired of America trying to be the world's superpower and global policeman and Best!At!Everything!. I breakfasted today with a group of friends, varying careers/SAHMs, varying income levels, and we all pretty much agreed that the actual drive to make America "#1" at everything is a large part of America's problems. We don't have to have the biggest military, or the "scariest" military, or whatever the hell else people are trying to "beat" every other country on. In our little group at least, we'd rather have fuckoff high taxes and be more like some of the Scandinavian countries or the UK (yep, you guys were mentioned too! ) and try to have happy, healthy citizenry rather than running round all corners of the earth jumping in and fighting fires.

Kerry has it spot on. The campaign has hit new lows this weekend, it's getting to depressing to read about. Partners should be fair game only if they are politicians or criminals.

Though none of us should get complacent: coming to a post-brexit cabinet near you, that professional buffoon with a Trump-sized ego, Boris Johnson...

Proginoskes to answer your question from the previous page: yes, tilting at windmills ... The scroll function is your friend. There are some interesting and informed posts on here, don't get distracted :)

I think The Donald is not familiar enough with Judaism to realise that Jewishness is determined by the maternal lineage, so unless Ivana's mother is Jewish which I don't believe she is

Trump's daughter Ivanka is a Jew by Orthodox conversion; her children are definitely Jewish.

Wow, I'd no idea she'd converted, much less a full Orthodox conversion! Yep, Jewish they are then.

Yes, but it's still funny how he tweeted about the baby being Jewish. It's as if he wants to cash in on it, or it annoys him that she converted. A baby is a baby, is a baby.

In the UK, C4 9pm Wednesday "President Trump: Can He Win"

Thanks, BigChoc. It is Channel 4's Matt Frei again, I hope it is more balanced and fair than his last one on Trump now that Trump is much closer to winning.

We can only hope it's as balanced and fair as Trump is. :)

Let's hope so, but it wlll be a high bar for Channel 4 to meet and I am not sure they are up to it.