is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

Yes, Thatcher gaev away council houses but I am not sure there were enough people to swing the election for her. How many people benefitted? Do you know? What was good about Thatcher is that she was one of the only politicians to stand up for the middle class and the aspirational working class.

Trump is a hopey changey thing, but he is a businessman and people trust him to fix things for them. It is not just men that he appeals to as will become clear as the election proceeds. I don't believe the polls the media reports.

No one apart from Bernie can get devotion like this. Thatcher didn't have this level of appeal.

"In line, I met a middle-aged woman who had quit her job to care for her ailing father, who was too weak to stand, so he rested, in his “Make America Great Again” cap, against walls along the way. Her eyes filled with tears, she professed her own dedication to Trump, whom she saw as an authentic advocate of the downtrodden. But most of all, she wanted to show her father something special, an American moment that would make him proud. Next to her was a family with a baby, decked out in Trump gear like her parents. Other Trump fans offered the young family assistance as the line dragged on. Behind them were a couple who had driven three hours from rural Missouri."

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/12/donald-trump-supporters-st-louis-rally-protest-violence

'I think the reason many GOP activists hate Trump is because he certainly isn't a "real" conservative, just a populist, a complete opportunist'

Yes, they don't trust him, but the ordinary people don't care because they never were ideological conservatives, they were always common sense populists who were ignored by the great and the good.

Be careful, claig, not to assume "ordinary people" are some distinct, unspeaking, great mass who have never taken political action before.
If you see them as an homogeneous group, all with the same priorities and thoughts, who will unite to form a popular uprising, then you will be underestimating their commitment to their individual priorities, just as those predicted a UKIP "people's army" did.

About 30% of eligible voters vote in primaries

Does that 30% include only party affiliated voters, and, in some cases, those non-affiliated who have specifically registered to vote at a particular primary?

Or 30% overall of all voters that also vote for the general election?

'Be careful, claig, not to assume "ordinary people" are some distinct, unspeaking, great mass'

Good point, you are right. There is huge diversity and different opinion.

It is worrying that the country Trump wants to get along at this moment is Russia.

At the moment Russia is anything but a democracy and has been pushing boundaries constantly (and by that I include having Russian military planes going around the western most parts of Europe, such as Portugal - no reason for that whatsoever). It is not possible to be "friends" with a country intent on rebuilding their former empire without major concessions or allowing target countries to simply be taken over.

Yes - in fact if there is any serious threat to democracy in western countries, it is the idea pushed from certain quarters, both left and right, that Putin is a model that we should look up to.

Putin's government has been heavily engaged in anti-europe/ anti-Merkel and pro-brexit propaganda, and yet no one says a word about it - whereas ordinary and open diplomacy by Obama attracts shrieks of outrage.

In the US, "anti-establishment" campaigners promote Putin as a model, when Russia has the most powerful, most controlling and most corrupt establishment of any major state. It is a very curious state of affairs.

'At the moment Russia is anything but a democracy '

Trump doesn't give two hoots about democracy for other countries. He doesn't care what regime they have as long as they cause no trouble for America. He is not a messiah philanthropist with a Faith Foundation like Tony Blair or with a charidee like Gordon Bennett, former Labour leader. He is not a humanitarian interventonist, he doesn't lecture other countries about "democracy", "political correctness" and "humanitarian values".

'It is not possible to be "friends" with a country intent on rebuilding their former empire without major concessions or allowing target countries to simply be taken over.'

Trump thinks he will get on with Putin and that of course does mean that Putin will get what he wants in his sphere of influence because Trump will leave him alone as long as he is on America's side elsewhere.

Trump is going to transform the entire world geopolitical landscape and bring peace between former adversary power blocs so that they both do business instead of spending money on war. But Trump will sort out Islamic terrorism in days alongside Putin and with his help.

As Trump told Jesse Watters on Fox two nights ago. "Jesse, General MacArthur, tough guy, right? If hey said Isis to him, do you think they would have lasted 24 hours? We're fighting, fighting, but nothing gets done" and Jesse laughed.

The days of "just another politician", "all talk no action" are over and the "world leaders" and bankers are petrfified. Climate change is just the first thing to go. Tony Blair is reported to be "anxious". World leaders are reported to be "terrified". The people are reported to be rolling on the floor laughing.

The days of "just another politician", "all talk no action" are over and the "world leaders" and bankers are petrfified. Climate change is just the first thing to go. Tony Blair is reported to be "anxious". World leaders are reported to be "terrified". The people are reported to be rolling on the floor laughing.

You are actually deranged.

Thank you, from you, that is a compliment.

The problem with Russia not being a democracy is not internal, it's how Putin perceives other countries around them and how he deals with them.

www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/01/08/seven-warnings-to-donald-trump-about-vladimir-putin/#434298247b8c

It's also interesting his concept of "getting along with Russia" (again, saying one thing and doing another)
indy100.independent.co.uk/article/vladimir-putin-is-angry-with-donald-trump-after-a-campaign-video-likening-him-to-isis--Z1xmwesj1b

Lweji , Forbes, Wall Street, lots of Economist articles etc are all anti Russia and there are even some factions who want war with Russia. Trump has gone against everyone of them so far. He doesn't care what Russia does as long as it gets along with America. He says "what are the Germans doing about Ukraine? They are a lot closer than us". Just as Obama said he was sick of "freeloaders", so is Trump, but in spades. He is not going to continue with the Wall Street policy of globalism where America is the world's policeman sorting out Europe's and everyone else's problems for them. He is going to sort out America's problems instead.

The Putin angry with Trump thing is just media spin. The media said to Trump "but Putin kills journalists" and Trump said something like "he's a tough guy" and "where is the evidence?". He doesn't care, he doesn't want war.

Trum is billed to make a major foreign policy speech on Wednesday. All the "world leaders" and Tony Blair will be studying it in detail to see if it says anything about their future. Will Trump change, will the wonks have got to him, will he tell Wall Street and the Establishment what they want to hear, or will he continue to "terrify" them by tearing up their geopolitical plans and ushering in a new era of peace and cooperation?

It's in Putin's interests to encourage "disruptive" political movements, and he is probably engaged in some covert pro-trump propaganda in the same way that he has supported anti-establishment, isolationist movements in Europe.

However, if Trump is elected, it's easy to imagine a situation in which two bellicose politicians with large egos and short fuses could get engaged in actual military action. Foreign policy (or lack of it) is the biggest concern about Trump for those of us outside the US.

Climate change is just the first thing to go

I'm glad someone will keep the climate from changing.

(or was that one of the jokes that may or may not be one, depending on people's responses to it?)

'or was that one of the jokes'

No one yet knows. All we do know is that Tony Blair is not laughing, he is reported to be "anxious".

However, if Trump is elected, it's easy to imagine a situation in which two bellicose politicians with large egos and short fuses could get engaged in actual military action.

I fully agree.

Despite his protestations, I suspect Trump is the bellicose type.
Or he'll just turn his back on any country Putin has his eyes on.
Neither is a good prospect.

No one yet knows.

You don't know if what you have written is a joke or not? How are other people supposed to discern it, then?

What did you mean by "climate change is the first to go"? Is there any sense to that expression? And what is it? As if I was really stupid.

Which is why

"Now, world leaders cop to being afraid of a Trump presidency, and they’re making preparations: scrambling to get deals done with the Obama administration while they still have the chance.

Leaders, members of their governments, even their aides are so spooked that they don’t want to say anything, and many privately admit that it’s because they think he’ll win"

---

Everything is going to change, Trump is rewriting the rules of the game.

'No one yet knows.'

I meant, no world leader yet knows if Trump is joking or is serious, which is why they are "terrified". They don't know what he will do.

'What did you mean by "climate change is the first to go"?'

I meant that there will be no support for the "world leader" climate change deals and agenda from Trump. Of course, the wonks might still get to him, Tony Blair's entreaties might have some effect, but so far from what Trump has said about it, there is nothing but panic across the UN and among every political class on the planet.

Can you imagine Tony sucking up to Trump.

"Look, Donald, may I call you Don?"
"You can call me whatever da hell you like as long as it's not Crooked or Lyin' or Liddle Marco or a communist like Bernie"
"Right, erm, yes, I see, thank you, Don"
"Don, have a heart, our progressive values are being challenged, our common humanitarian World Development goals are in doubt, our joint Project to spread liberal, humanitarian values are teetering on the edge, the rain forest is vanishing as we speak"
"Whaddya torking about? What has that got to do with Wisconsin"
"That's precisely it, Donald, erm, Don. It has everything to do with our shared values, our common Millenium goals. Have a heart, Don, please. That guy in Labour needed a transplant. I just don't understand te world anymore, it's changed so much. Don, I'm "anxious"

Trump turns to a security guy and yells "Get him out, out, out, out, get him outta here" and Blair is lifted from the ground by hs collar and unceremoniously plonked on the pavement.

Trump has a rally to go to and the Trump fans await.
USA USA USA

Unfortunately, it's not only the political classes that are worried.

Many ordinary people are too. And should be.

Voters take a gamble when voting for any politician.
Voting for someone who clearly has no idea what he's doing, or what he wants to do, and nobody else has any idea what he'll do, because we have no idea what he'll do is as mad as putting all your fortune in Madoff's hands after his conviction.

It can't be change, Lweji. That is what is happening. The world is changing like no one anywhere thought possible. Donald J Trump has driven a coach and horses through the bullshit and nothing will ever be the same again.

Trump is doing bloody nothing. Not yet, anyway.

It may be hard for you to imagine, but he's not shattering the Earth. Nor will he at home, when faced with Congress and all the democratic checks that are in place.

Honestly, claig, how can you post something like that post at 10 today and be surprised when people say you write drivel? It's even got the patronising misspellings, for goodness sake.

I understand that you are frustrated that you can't see an obvious joke

No, I can't see a joke when you have posted a ludicrous statement, because so many of your ludicrous statements represent your genuine beliefs. Nor can I see a joke when Trump has told an obvious lie. Nor can anyone else. Does it occur to you that it could be you that has got it wrong, not us?