Part Two.
Firstly may I again clarify the difference between the global investment banking/capital markets, and our domestic banking e.g. High Street banking, as the former is responsible for £trillions each year of government and company refinancing, trading and the recycling of global capital surpluses to global borrowing demand – whilst our High Street banking is not, it does what it sez on the can, the main overlap is a local bank needs plain vanilla investment banking financial Swaps, in order to offer Fixed Rate mortgages and similar basic financially engineered products.
I say this as there is no government directive or policy that will STOP the global capital markets functioning, it would be stupid to try and stop world growth; the question for a government in a 24- hour global trading environment, where traditionally the main centres were New York, London and Tokyo, is generally how can OUR country be one of those three main trading centres, not ‘let some other country have the prestige, employment and £65 billion annual tax receipts’.
If the Investment Banks, the large Fund Managers and smaller UK based financial institutions all moved to Paris or Frankfurt, it would still be the same talent drain on bright UK people, as evidenced by bright young people from all over the globe, currently working here.
Furthermore, if the European investment bank head offices were based in, and trading from Paris or Frankfurt, it wouldn’t make our banks any safer in any similar systemic global liquidity/inter-bank market crash we experienced from late 2007.
Iceland is hardly an investment banking centre, and with a population that might fill several UK football stadiums, has a smaller talent pool. The UK High Street and Commercial banking industry would still need bright people even if Investment Banking moved to mainland Europe.
OUR problem is while this country currently needs 75,000 Engineers, the UK was turning out a small army of ‘well rounded’, happy and indebted specialists in Media Studies (and similar worthless subjects), into a UK economy desperately needing a medium to high skilled labour force to provide international companies based here to compete with the world.
The UK blessed with the employment and tax receipts from Investment Banking had the best decade for a century (1997-2007) to use those proceeds to reform and invest UK social/infrastructure spending, and BALANCE the STRUCTURE of the UK economy not to RELY on the City/Financial Services, but the UK went in the opposite direction.
Yes the money was massively increased and spent (see the link in my previous post from economicshelp), but all it ‘manufactured’ was an unsustainable or “phoney economy” referred to within your last post.
Far from increasing the real economy, manufacturing/industry fell as a percentage of our economy from a static 22-23% from 1979 to 1997, to around 12% in 2010, with many of those jobs lost BEFORE the financial crash began.
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/million-factory-jobs-lost-under-labour-6150418.html
The Coalition has talked about the dire need to ‘rebalancing the economy’ since 2010, look at the FORTH chart on this Bloomberg link below – where from 2001, growth in the governments payroll (public sector) significantly outgrew the employment of the rest of the economy (private sector) PAYING for that oversized government and all our important services e.g. the NHS - is there any wonder we had such a large annual overspend/budget deficit by 2010, and dare we wonder if the UK had just stuck to that business plan like Mr Micawber, waiting for ‘something to turn up’, where would we be now?
www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-22/uks-holiday-cheer-in-four-charts
In conclusion; the UK banks were by no means the cause of the western financial crash, as on what appears to be a once in a century financial ‘event’, I repeat my much earlier point, it was a combination of government financial deregulation action, financial regulator inaction, banks lending more than they could afford and companies and consumers borrowing more than they could afford, provided a ‘perfect financial storm’.
What has made it far worse for the UK was the extent of the structural imbalance of the economy, the extent of our fixed overspending/annual deficit (previously financed by the proceeds of City investment bank profits, UK bank balance sheet growth, credit, debt, speculation and overspending £30 billion a year plus in the ‘good times’).
As this neither allowed a responsible UK government by 2010 the option of doing NOTHING to cut our annual £157 bil over spend, or wait for an unbalanced economy ‘to turn up’ - in order to provide more private sector jobs than those already lost, and stop the (accumulating annual deficits) National Debt increasing, never mind START to pay it off.
www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/