Is the Save the Children’s Report looking backward, not forward, with limited data and pessimistic future assumptions?
Looking to put aside the political motives of the report to both shock and blame welfare reforms, we need to look at how we got here and try to understand why Save the Children’s interpolation shows such a high increase up until 2020, when the UK having been in the worst recession for 80-years is now in the strongest recovery and jobs growth of all the major economies.
Firstly it appears that this report by the Save the Children researchers accepts the Institute for Fiscal Studies CURRENT figure of 3.5 children in poverty – but then predicts there will be an increase to 5 million in 2020 – surveying just 1,500 children plus aged eight to 16 and more than 5,000 parents, focusing on the lowest income groups.*
Secondly, and is not made clear in the link or posts, the charity defines living in poverty as having a family income of less than £17,000 a year.
Next as Save the Children use 2007 to 2011 for their 19% rise in food stat and 2003 to 2013 for their costs of under two-year olds childcare/nursery rising 77%, going on to BLAME the current coalition for “ the bedroom tax” for causing children’s poverty, lets look at the state of the State’s housing for the poor, RESULTING in the coalitions effort to free up unused bedrooms.
Shelter (2009); The housing crisis in numbers – and the need for spare bedrooms, never mind homes.
england.shelter.org.uk/campaigns/why_we_campaign/the_housing_crisis/what_is_the_housing_crisis.
• Over 1.7 million households (around 5 million individuals) are currently waiting for social housing
• 7.4 million homes in England fail to meet the Government's Decent Homes Standard
• 1.4 million children in England live in bad housing. [3]
• In 2008/09, 654,000 households in England were overcrowded. [4]
• The number of new households is increasing faster than the number of house builds.
Maybe someone can tell me how the cost on a family FOR BEDROOMS NOT USED, to encourage those homes to be released for the 1.7 million households, with MILLIONS of children either WAITING for a home or in BAD housing, causes more poverty than freeing up used bedrooms within those homes for larger families?
Looking forward are Save the Children assuming that the UK will AGAIN have similar open door migration, putting pressure on jobs and pay rates for the indigenous population and the housing shortage due to economic immigration and failure to build enough home – together with little change from such a deep and long recession, when even a mild one can lower earnings and levels of poverty?
Are they also assuming that raising the start rate of tax to £10,500, a government finally doing something about the lack of social homes, and new job creation due to businesses now investing more and higher pay rates as the labour market tightens, will not REDUCE child poverty as the recession and huge LOSS of economic output/jobs that began in 2008, is behind us?
Or are they just assuming Labour will get back in power in 2015, who failed during in the 10-years to 2007 to make the right spending decisions e.g. homes, and in times of plenty missed their own poverty target?