Missing MH370 thread cont...

[Pennies]

Old thread here

New thread here.

Goldie that grass landing is very interesting.

It seems to show a stopping distance of about 1000-1200 feet.
So that considerably widens the number of feasible sites, I'm guessing 10,000s.

I don't have anything useful to add but marking my place, thanks so much for explaining everything so well Goldie

why wasn't this doen when AF447 went down in the Atlantic?

No need. 1st debris found about 48 hrs after crash IIRC.

2 years was to search ocean floor.

I meant that the planning would be extensive and take. Considerable amount of time. I agree that once the plan is prepared, then it could be activated at much shorter notice, but precisely who was on the flight on the day the planners say 'go' is much more likely to be random (or just conceivably opportunistic) than the purpose of the operation. And it adds another layer of systems to be penetrated, though lots of people could have access to manifest information.

And though the staff work for a company which has some products of military significance, we do not know if this group of staff were engaged in sensitive work. Though I suppose any attack on anyone connected to a firm which supplies the military might be damaging, in the sense of spreading feelings of insecurity.

Catsmamma - on the gold issue.

It is quite normal to move gold around by air. It is a high value cargo.

It is also quite normal to move gold along with passengers and other freight.

I used to work for a firm that moved gold out of various African countries by air on Boeing 747 freighters. We used to land in commercial airfields and pick up the gold which is extremely dense and takes up little space. Then take off, land in another African country to pick up orchids, which are extremely light but take up a lot of space. Then fly the whole lot back to Europe.

Passengers, take up a lot of space but are not that heavy. Gold in the hold weighing 10 tonnes would be approximately the same weight as 50 passengers plus their baggage. However, it only takes up approximately 0.5 cubic metres. It is almost 20 times more dense than water at room temp. People are 70% water.

The value of gold was $44.42 per gram at close of business on Friday so 10 tonnes alleged to be on the plane is worth $440 million after refining costs.

Gold in raw form that has been melted down mixed with other gold and recast in small bars is virtually untraceable. It is treated as currency in many parts of the Middle East and Asia. That $440 million would go along way in that part of the World.

Finally a thread on MN with some terminology that I fully understand (PNC/ANC), although rather sad that it is on this subject matter. I hope soon that answers can be given to the families of those sadly missing.

I keep questioning (from my v.limited ATC experience) why no-one noticed a large primary radar contact on their screens as the aircraft transited over a land mass/controlled airspace, but then my own experience of radar is from a class G airspace airport where we rely on primary as much as secondary. Im guessing that it wouldn't have shown up as airspace sector radar units wouldn't be reliant on primary? Just for my own peace of mind can someone tell me?

The US know what's happened. I'm sure of it. They're far too quiet at the moment. I wonder if there's any credibility to the rumour doing the rounds that America shot it down.

It reads like a false flag attack, where someone mad is trying to start WW3. Very scary. I do think its crashed somewhere and when they find out where to look they'll find debris.

It's more likely that the US know where it's crashed/shot down, but don't want the site revealed too early. I think the chances of it being landed and a hostage situation are tiny.

Place marking

"Goldie that grass landing is very interesting.

It seems to show a stopping distance of about 1000-1200 feet.
So that considerably widens the number of feasible sites, I'm guessing 10,000s."

Except that the landing gear has been torn off so you can't take off again - which defeats the object of nicking it to use it for something else later on! So yeah, you can land on grass but only the once!

"No need. 1st debris found about 48 hrs after crash IIRC."

1st confirmed debris fromt he A330 was found 5 days afterwards - the 48 hours statement was later retracted as the debris didn't come form the aeroplane.

Yes, 2 years to find the rest of it.

"I meant that the planning would be extensive and take. Considerable amount of time. I agree that once the plan is prepared, then it could be activated at much shorter notice, but precisely who was on the flight on the day the planners say 'go' is much more likely to be random (or just conceivably opportunistic) than the purpose of the operation."

It sounds like you have considerable experience of hijack situations so I bow to your superior knowledge. So this means that it is equally impossible for the criminals to have targeted the cargo as well - for those who were thinking about that.

"Though I suppose any attack on anyone connected to a firm which supplies the military might be damaging, in the sense of spreading feelings of insecurity."

That's kind of what I was getting at.

Horrified at the whole thing. |I have no theories and no knowledge but am pleased to read some really interesting stuff here. Special thanks to Goldie for all those facts.

If it wasn't an attack planned to take place immediately that went wrong, it seems more likely to me that they wanted the cargo than that they wanted the plane itself.

If you damaged the cargo bay you could presumably cut your way into it if you had the right equipment.

"Gold in the hold weighing 10 tonnes would be approximately the same weight as 50 passengers plus their baggage. "

The principle is right but the number is a bit off. Global standard assumption is that 1 passenger and their baggage weighs 200lbs (ICAO assumption used by airlines) - so a squidge over 90kg ('squidge' being a technical term ) so 10t of gold is about 111 passengers plus bags. Passengers also need a lot more volume to accommodate their seat, the catering and the fact that gold doesn't need to go pee from time to time. Oh and the minor inconvenience that passengers need to be kept alive!

Your info on gold value is very interesting!

"Im guessing that it wouldn't have shown up as airspace sector radar units wouldn't be reliant on primary? Just for my own peace of mind can someone tell me?"

The civilian systems, true. But there's a lot of military monitoring out there that is primary dependent. It's looking like quite a lot of that primary is owned by the US in one format or another (land based or ship-bourne)

"It's more likely that the US know where it's crashed/shot down, but don't want the site revealed too early. "

That stands to reason, yes. Good theory!

"If you damaged the cargo bay you could presumably cut your way into it if you had the right equipment."

You could, but the bay and whatever's in it, would most likely be crushed. Plus you risk setting fire to the whole shebang (another technical term ), which again defeats the object.

Have nothing useful to say, but am so grateful to the intelligence on this thread.

Thanks! :)

Goldie Thank you for answering my question, I was going to ask on PPrune or AV-herald, but feared on the onslaught that would follow.

Thanks for that MoreBeta

Sooooooo if the gold was planned to be on that flight, it could go some way to giving a motivation for the hijack, esp if it is effectively untraceable.

That sort of money though really ups the ante to who masterminded it and why.

and explains why the Yanks are suddenly so keen to find the plane

On a really stupid note - particularly taking into account the seriousness (and sadness) of this situation - can I just say how much the info and thoughts on here have impressed DH, who normally thinks MN is a bit of a joke!

I think it is starting to look more and more like the whole thing was designed to either get the cargo or prove a terror groups' capabilities rather than to steal an aircraft.

With regards to the pilots' homes being searched: is this something that should have happened earlier on in the investigation? Although I appreciate we still don't know if they are implicated but it does seem now that the authorities maybe have known early on in the investigation that we weren't looking at a sudden failure of the aircraft.

Also adding my thanks and joining the sense of awe at Goldie's knowledge! You should be used as an example to enourage young women into engineering

The other thing is that they are searching over very busy shipping lanes + ships have sophisticated radar and sonar to identify exactly things such as floating or submerged debris that could damage the hull. I find it so hard to believe that no one has spotted anything by now if it has crashed.

The governments know. They just won't say anything yet. Damage limitation I guess.