Korea

[DizzyHoneyBee]

It's all looking very worrying, I can't help but wonder how long before a war starts.
How do you think it will turn out?

[MyDarlingClementine]

America has been backing up south korea for years and has managed to keep its cool. This isnt the first time they have done this.

[Gardentreehouse]

America are going to f it all up and at the moment I'm scared about what our relationship with America means for us. . It's very very worrying and I think we should be praying for it to not escalate.

[lottieandmia]

Some people seem to think this is being talked up on the news a lot to distract us from what the government are up to. Who knows?

It's true the US tend to react fiercely when threatened. But they aren't stupid imo, plus I've heard from experts talking about NK that above all they will want to save their own skins.

[MissRee]

Fascinating stuff, especially quote's knowledge on the subject

[quoteunquote]

If Japan relent over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands , then the food supply into NK will increase, which will release a lot of pressure on the NK leaders.

the USA (HC) came out in support of Japan,

it up to China how far they want to play it.

[quoteunquote]

China recently announced it's intentions, via it's passports, the new maps in which now claim for China the entire China sea,

Taiwan, Brunei,Malaysia, Philippines,Vietnam are really pissed off, as it is all their territories that have been taken, and are all trying to reason with China, who have laughed in their faces and basically said what are you going to do about it?, the answer of course is nothing,

the NK situation is just, why have a dog and bark bite yourself,

China will decide just how far they want NK to go with Japan.

[stepawayfromthescreen]

would NK nuke the UK to provoke the US?

[PseudoBadger]

They don't have the technology. And, no.

[niceguy2]

No, if they had the technology they'd be more likely to nuke the US than the UK.

But knowing us, we'd follow the US into a war with NK though.

[stepawayfromthescreen]

arn't they working on getting the technology to nuke America though?

[Barbie1]

The foreign office have advised the families that are due to travel to Seoul tomorrow are ok to do so.

Our visas have been approved and at no point in the application process has anyone raised any concerns.

My concern is the 'project' that dh is going to be working on is a worlds first, a huge project which see's some of the biggest American and British companies coming together. The dry dock in which the build is taking place is a sitting duck!

We would be well within range.

I really don't understand why nobody on the project is showin any concern.

[quoteunquote]

www.enjoyingjapan.com/maps/geo/bases/

these are some of the targets, those and the SK usa bases.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands

the islands, that are part of the problem.

they have plenty to be getting on with considering they mine their own uranium, and produce plutonium, and it keeps very well.

[GreenEggsAndNichts]

According to our (the US, I'm originally from the US) post-war treaty with Japan, we are obliged to defend them should they be attacked. Which is why that island issue is worrying to me. China's games with those islands had me more worried than NK for a while there, if I'm honest.

The US can't manage another war on foreign soil right now, despite what some people seem to think- they aren't actively looking to start a new one. We simply don't have the manpower. Soldiers in Iraq were doing 3rd and 4th tours of duty with almost no break between. They even sent National Guard troops, which aren't technically meant to leave their home states, much less go overseas. We don't have a hawkish president in office anymore. There's no supply of oil I'm aware of. etc. There is no agenda there I can see, even reading between the lines of what the media says.

Whether or not those B-2 exercises were a smart move remains to be seen. They were meant as a show of support for the South Koreans, as our allies.

What scares me about this is we don't know what to expect from KJU. He's very young and not much is known about him. When his father would ratchet up the rhetoric, it was usually obvious that he wanted something: aid/ more oil/ loosened sanctions/ whatever. KJU has already said he won't negotiate their right to nuclear arms, so what is it he's going to offer?

[Gardentreehouse]

I don't feel so sure that we (UK) can feel safe right now. This guy is a nutter, there is no way we can predict what he is up to and could be capable of.

[quoteunquote]

The US can't manage another war on foreign soil right now

hence the timing,

that island issue is worrying to me

China's intentions are very worrying, in the build up even before Japan bought the islands, they were clear about their plans.

it's interesting that people think that Kim Jong-un is anything but a puppet. the whole NK "leadership" is totally reliant on China,

world.time.com/2012/11/27/asias-passport-wars-chinese-map-triggers-diplomatic-firestorm/

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20491426

www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/23/china-passports-ownership-sea-taiwan

www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1096784/map-china-passports-go-too-far

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/11/26/heres-the-chinese-passport-map-thats-infuriating-much-of-asia/

China has to accommodate it's expansion, the question is when it crosses the line will anyone be able to stop it, so far none have(Tibet, Taiwan), the islands are key, which is why HC went on record to declare disapproval.

Unless Europeans can recognise that they have more in common than they have differences, and work together as a USE,(united states of europe) and form a good working relationship with Russia and the USA, we are all going to be pondering Niemöller most famous quote.

www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/06/20-taiwan-un-winkler

secondchina.com/Learning_Modules/POL/content/POL_chn_un_security.html

we are unable to compete economically alone, but together we have a chance.

www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/26/ecuador-chinese-oil-bids-amazon

www.chinaafricarealstory.com/
edition.cnn.com/2013/03/25/world/asia/china-africa-xi

[lottieandmia]

GardenTreeHouse - the west will have more intelligence than they make public so we only get a basic version of what is happening. I'm not too worried, in part because the US is being quite restrained - luckily they do not currently have a republican government.

Thanks for your informative posts quoteunquote :) very interesting.

[bubblesinthesky]

Thank you Quote I only had a very vauge idea of the environmental issues in NK I found your posts very informative.

This article about a defector gives some insight into life there Its only for the strong stomached though as it has some very grim details :(

[quoteunquote]

A chap called Keith Bowers (ecologist) was one of the scientist allowed access, very knowledgeable, certainly identified this as an impending problem, bound to be a paper somewhere, they didn't sound very hopeful.


Hopefully Baekdu won't go off and spook everyone

Paeku is over due.

[quoteunquote]

www.korea-dpr.com/index.html

always interesting

[quoteunquote]

It's getting lively.

[Coffeenowplease]

They re saying hes going to test or launch something tomorrow.

[lottieandmia]

I'm reading 'Nothing To Envy' - very interesting indeed.

[lottieandmia]

The last thing I heard was China saying they won't put up with N Korea war mongering on their doorstep.

The latest news seems to suggest the US feel they could intercept any NK missiles.

[thezebrawearspurple]

Without Chinese support the regime would collapse, it's not so much the potential 25 million refugees that worries them, it's a united Korea which would be ruled from Seoul and a military ally of the US with ground troops and nuclear weapons bordering them.

Nobody really knows what's going on, it could be puppeteering from China (buy why?), it could be more empty rhetoric (although with no chance of concessions that could backfire and force the regime to do something so they look serious), it could be an attempt to make the young leader seem like an important military hero to his people (that's at least part of it), it could be that the rulers have become drunk on their own propaganda and genuinely believe they can win a nuclear war It could even be an attempt from within to collapse the regime or encourage outside sources to. Maybe it's a combination of elements of all of the above.

We'll see. Hopefully it won't be ww3 because if Albert Einstein is right, the fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones, I don't want to live in a post nuclear apocalyptic dark age

[meditrina]

From the BBC:

yesterday, UN's warnings sounding more grave as NK rhetoric continues

SK raises alert level

Think piece on whether China is urging restraint on NK

There is the capability to intercept the NK arsenal. But whether it would happen with 100% accuracy on the day, when the devastation from even one getting through verges on the unthinkable, means it's something that no leader wants to rely on even when the military is well-prepared.