Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
News
Original poster

bird flu's arrived

59 replies

sansouci · 18/02/2006 20:49

It isn't a question of if, but when.

Well, it's in neighboring France now so I guess tomorrow's roast will be the last for some time.

Is anybody else worrying about this?

OP posts:
Original poster
sansouci · 18/02/2006 22:21

thanks your majesty! am mighty reassured now...

OP posts:
dolally · 18/02/2006 22:42

HRH, if I can stick my beak in here. As I understand it the virus cannot yet be passed from human to human. The problem is that the more widespread it becomes amongst the avian population, the more the risk increases of humans catching it(those in direct contact of course) The more humans catch it the more chances the virus has of mutating to a human to human disease. I am slightly concerned that we will shortly have a dose of it all over Europe I reckon (partly because I have ducks in my back garden too). I won't lose sleep over it but the WHO website FAQS makes some interesting reading..

Redtartanlass · 18/02/2006 23:09

QofQ stolen your quote for another thread - thanks

monkeytrousers · 18/02/2006 23:22

Apparently though it does have a 50% mortality rate if contracted. Tying the get the link from todays Bad Science in The Guardian - was spot on as per, but can't get to it for some reason.

Pruni · 18/02/2006 23:28

Message withdrawn

wannaBe1974 · 18/02/2006 23:37

I agree with HRH, 176 people out of the 4/5 billion worldwide is a miniscule amount, and all of them, every single one, had come into contact with infected birds, and no, not always live birds, the children in turkey who died had been playing with dead birds. There's no point worrying about it, it may not mutate, it may mutate but not for another 50 years, we may have a severe winter next year and it may kill off the virus. Remember the panic that erupted over SARS? and what came of that - nothing.

If this virus mutates, and in reality we don't as yet know that it will, but if it does, then I will re-think, but until then, there's really no point worrying.

HRHQueenOfQuotes · 18/02/2006 23:38

I've read the WHO FAQ's and I'm still not sure what the major panic is. IF we had a pandemic figures estimated globally probably don't work out much more than in a pandemic year for the normal 'human' influenza. If in a 30,000+ die in the UK during a pandemic (1989-1990 figures), it's estimated about 100,000+ in the US during a 'pandemic year.

According to who during a 'normal' year between 250-500k die from influenza worldwide each year. given than the numbers for the UK and the US seem to increase 10 fold during a pandemic year a 10 fold increase onf 250-500k would be 2.5-5million - the same estimate for if this bird flu turned into a human pandemic.....

And when you consider that every year about 15 million people (UNESCO figures) die from starvation or starvation related causes.........

monkeytrousers · 18/02/2006 23:41

aha Pruni to the rescue!

monkeytrousers · 18/02/2006 23:43

I'm getting old - I just can't bare stats like that. I want to work for an NGO after I graduate.

HRHQueenOfQuotes · 18/02/2006 23:47

and just to put the estimates for 2-5 million death from a possible threat from this avian flu really into perspective

Top killers for children under 5yrs old (yearly)

Diarrhoea: kills over 2m
Pneumonia: kills over 2m
Malaria: kills about 1m
Aids: kills about 0.3m
Measles: kills 0.1m

We're sitting here worrying about something that probably won't happen (as someone else said - remember SARS - that was going to be a massive killer too wasn't it...) 5 million children under 5 die each year from largely preventable things.

monkeytrousers · 18/02/2006 23:57

Stop QoQ! You've finished The Godtower then?

ruty · 19/02/2006 14:33

don't agree necessarily OofO - the diseases you list, generally kill in badly nourished populations without proper treatment. Problem with bird flu if it happens, is that we have no defences against it even in well nourished populations, and tamiflu's effects are still largely unknown. And it has a 50% fatality rate. I heard one of the top experts talking about it, and the news for him that is of greatest alarm is that it has spread to Africa - he said because of the large numbers of HIV infected people there, the virus is more likely to mutate because of those people's weak immune system. And if that happens, then it goes global. I am worried actually.I also don't like the idea of a vaccine being rapidly introduced which hasn't had enough testing over time.

ruty · 19/02/2006 14:33

i mean Qof Q!

expatinscotland · 19/02/2006 14:36

No, I'm not worried about it. Far greater chance of dying for a strain of flu already inherent in the human population. I don't agree w/culls of wild birds. This strain of influenza has been in the aviary population for years now. Best to let nature run its course. Meddle w/it and things will go awry.

Enid · 19/02/2006 14:36

take elderberry extract

it killed 99.9% of the bird flu virus under lab conditions

Blandmum · 19/02/2006 14:39

What all of this started I looked into the worst case scenario of deaths....five times the normal rate. The risk per person is roughly comparable to that of a man haveing testicular cancer in his life time.

How many of us are worrying ourselves silly about our dh/p ds getting testicular cancer? Very few I would imagine.

We are at far greater risk when we drive in out cars, or even more if weare daft enough to smoke.

It is a real risk, but should, I think, be put into perpective.

ruty · 19/02/2006 17:03

interesting Enid. will be selling out like tamiflu on the net now!

Original poster
sansouci · 27/02/2006 09:08

OMG. It's hit Geneva & we're only 15 minutes drive away. I noticed when shopping on Saturday that there was very little poultry for sale. Apparently cooking kills the virus but I feel very nervous all the same.

OP posts:
expatinscotland · 27/02/2006 09:22

WHY is the government not ordering birds to be vaccinated?

Original poster
sansouci · 27/02/2006 09:33

I don't know, expat! We live in a hamlet in the middle of the countryside. There are chickens down the road (noticed they were confined to baracks when we went for a walk on Sat) & most worryingly, birds are always nesting (or trying to)around the windows of our house. What am supposed to do, not open the windows now?

OP posts:
expatinscotland · 27/02/2006 09:36

France has ordered it. WHY is the government continually unable to pull its head out? Farmers need support right now or it's going to end up costing the entire economy, which of coruse includes all of us, a mint.

expatinscotland · 27/02/2006 09:38

It's not a good virus. It kills a lot of its hosts and quickly. But it's pretty hard to catch as a human.

I don't believe in feeding wildlife. Never have and never will. B/c it interferes w/their survival instinct. But since others have, it seems cruel of them to stop.

Original poster
sansouci · 27/02/2006 09:48

When you say "pretty hard to catch as a human", how hard are we talking about here? Would someone have to actually be in physical contact with an infected bird? Or bird droppings? Is it airborne?

OP posts:
Enid · 27/02/2006 09:49

snorting up bird poo is apparently a really good way of getting it

so I guess...feeding the ducks, tripping over and getting bird poo on your hand then putting your hands in your mouth MIGHT count? (typical 3 year old scenario chez Enid, maybe its tiime to stop feeding the swans)

expatinscotland · 27/02/2006 09:55

As in, living w/the birds in your living room. And even then, in proportion to the number of people who live this way, the number of people who actually contract it is pretty slim.

Swipe left for the next trending thread