Abortion rate - someone at the DM can't do maths

[ForkInTheForeheid]

Nearly a third of pregnancies in Europe end in termination

Oh dear. (That would be 3% I believe).

oh dear... idiots

don't get it, can you explain please?

I don't think you're comparing like with like. Or at least

c.30 per 1000 women in the population have terminations per year, but not all women in the population will be pregnant that year.

30% of pregnancies ending in termination is a separate, unrelated, statistic.

that's what I thought meditrina

Well in the article they don't give the figure for Europe other than saying it's a third or 30%. However, if you look at the rates for Western Europe and Eastern Europe (12 per 1000 and 43 per 1000) the average of those two rates cannot possibly be a third of all pregnancies (which would be 300 per 1000!!). I reckon they've looked at the rate per 1000 and thought that the percentage was the same.

The article is available on the Lancet (for free, just need to register).

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2961786-8/fulltext

30 in 1000 is 3%, not 30%. They've buggered up the maths.

OK, may need to swallow my words. will go check the real article again.... :S

30 in 1000 is 3% yes but that is the rate per women, all women.

30% is the rate per pregnant women I thought?

It could be bad drafting on behalf of the Mail, but they say the 3% is of all women of child-bearing age.

The 30% is of all pregnancies

Despite the similar number, they are unrelated statistics.

Sorry. I read it too fast and now I've been outsmarted by the daily mail. the shame!
You are right meditrina.

I'm sure if we look carefully, we will find plenty of grammatical and spelling errors!

30% of all pregnancies end in abortion??!!

Bloody hell..

I'm hoping a Lancet reader will turn up and explain the stats further - the DM article wasn't terribly well written (IMHO) and I'm not surprised that it caused confusion.

I'm trying to find out what %age of UK pregnancies result in termination.

The rate per 1000 women (England/Wales) in 2010 (most recent I could find) was 17.5. Within that (which is all women 15-44) there are age-related spikes, notably amongst 19-20 year olds where it reaches 33.

The rate per women is kind of irrelevant though isnt it?? I dont understand how that statistic is of any importance. The vast majority of those women woont get pregnant in a year so it's a non-figure. It is the % of pregnancies that's important isnt it? Or am I missing something?

I've found the 2009 conception rate (England/Wales, women 15-44) it was 80.9 per 1000.

Page 5 of this ONS report gives the %ages.

In 2009, For the total age range it was about 20%. But again, if you look at the age band break down, there are big differences by age (nearly 60% of under 16, 50% under 18, 45% under 20, 30% 29-24, 20% 25-29, 15% 30-34, 20% 35-39, 30% over 40 (figures rounded as reading from bar chart)).

thanks for finding those figures meditrina. v interesting.

Are they talking about terminations or abortions. because abortions can mean terminations and miscarriages, but the DM uses the term abortiona nd termination interchangably. They also do not present good statistics, for instance they do say 30% of all pregnancies end in termination, but then go on to divide this by European regions, but they do not specify what is west and what is north Europe. For instance the Uk and Scandanavian countries are considered to be both western and northern European countries, so where these counted twice? It says that Northen Europe only has 17 abortions per 1000, and that is just 1.7 % which is not very much.

Also the antiabortionist at the end is speaking rubbish, he is basicly saying that countries that allow abortion have high maternal death rates and that this is linked to abortion. How does he work that one out?

'The abortion rates is clearly lower in places were abortion laws are more liberal'

not sure if you are reading it right kelly

sorry kelly - wrong quote by me

Pretty sure they are talking about abortion/termination by CHOICE. Not miscarriage etc.

When they 17 per 1000 they mean 17 per 1000 WOMEN not pregnancies.

It is 30% of all pregnancies on average over Europe. There's no double counting.

Nobody really uses abortion to mean miscarriages, although that is the old-fashioned name for miscarriage.

The statistics look right to me, as sorry as I am to say the Daily Mail is right about something!

bartlett,
No the correct medical term for a miscarriage is a spontaneous abortion. Miscarriage is an informal term.

The strange thing about that article (unless I have missed something - I only skimmed it) - is that none of the stats in the main text relate to the headline as far as I can see.