Another domino tips: new pro-democracy protests

[onimolap]

... are taking place in Algeria.

Link to BBC account.

It seems to be to be reminiscent of the fall of the old Soviet bloc; a series of dominos falling.

Does anyone think Morocco could be affected?
We are going there at Easter.

I think the next big one will be Iran, and that will be scary!

Further link here.

Demonstrations in both Algeria and Yemen today; in both locations put down by the authorities.

The BBC were talking about Libya being a possibility too after Egypt.

I think Algeria likely to be next. Morocco and Jordan are monarchies so a bit different.

Morocco does have proper political parties and a proper democratic process but the King remains omnipotent. That said he has done a tremendous job at raising standards of living, building infrastructure, creating jobs and freeing the media.
Pb is population largely uneducated and those who have uni eduation are in total inadequation with jobs on offer.
There would not ever be a problem of legitimacy here but the monarch's "entourage" is by far and large totally corrupt and owns the economy's vital sectors. They are doing a very good job but effectively are a reign to free enterprise.

Jordan has a pb of cohesiveness. 40% of the population is Palestinian (they have had to absorb the spillover of you know what in the last 2 generations). These population until fairly recently where no better than refugees in camps so quite poor for the most part.
They have never been truly accepted by the tribal clans (from which the monarchy spun quite artificially with a nudge from the the Brit occupation). There could be a legitimacy issue here. The tribal clans have only recently been very vocal in denouncing the Queen's lifestyle (couture owns). They are quite right wondering where the money from, but it is really a veiled attack against here palestinian origins and here prominent very visible role as an arab muslim woman.

my heart goes out to Algerians.

Such a beautiful rich country. You need to research what has been going on since 1991.
A case study about western meddling, the rise of terrorist islam ( actually tribal feuding settling old post colonial scores in disguise) and of course the almighty saviour generals (with now botomless bank accounts in tax heavens)
Remove the islamist component and you could be in central america in the 1980ies. Same old.

Hope they make it through this.
Back in late 1980 the people were highly educated and highly politicized. They were the first generation of baby boomers who had made the independence movement who kicked the fench out and had gone full spectrum marxist, socialist then back on the capitalst/democratic trend. So totally capable and totally screwed in the 1991 election.

Problem is I am not entirely sure the new generation on the street is as politically mature.

Sorry, I do realise I sound very pedantic. subject close to my heart.

ripeberry, I really do not think you are likely to see a revolution in Morocco.
Where are you heading?

Hi Slim, we are going to Marrakesh and then going into the sand dunes to have a look at a film studio in the desert (forgotten it's name), then up into the Atlas mountains.

sounds lovely. Easter is the best time of year for this itinerary.
Enjoy

I just hope the Algerians have enough fight in them. They are a weary nation from the brutal civil war ithe 90's and the war against France from the 50's until the early 60's. As a regular visitor to Algeria I can see for myself the lack of infrastructure, high youth unemployment, rising food costs in relation to low wages....
The sickening thing is that Algeria is an oil/gas rich nation and apart from cheap petrol, the population have no slice of that pie, the money is all being salted away by the generals et al.

Apparently, according to the Algerian press, in Libya Gadaffi has said he will demonstrate with his own people....!

That would be interesting to see!

Would unrest in Yemen be a terrorism concern? I seem to recall that it was considered close to a failed state already. Would further upset result in prolonged lawlessness and a haven for camps?

Wow! You have to hand it to Gaddafi, he can spin a news cycle like no one!

Iran!!

Is this as worrying as it seems?

I've just seen it on the news: tear gas, at least one death, Internet down.....

Seriously kicking off in Libya today!

BBC report

I agree - Algeria's much more likely to fall than Morocco. One side of DP's family are from Algeria (but had to flee overnight in the 1960s - they're Jewish and had French passports so weren't overly popular). They've never been back once - as it's too dangerous and too unstable. It has something like 200 attempted or actual terrorist attacks a year. Very very high unemployment, and a very rigid authoritarian dictatorship. I actually thought Algeria was more likely to go than Tunisia, but was wrong on that one.

Apparently there have also been two days of protests in Bahrain

Seems like the ripple effect is well under way.......I still cant believe it!

Bahrain in the news again. The police/armed forces have used live rounds against protesters.

report

Now Saudi Arabia Telegraph article.

This one is potentially very serious, not least because Saudi appears to have threatened to intervene directly in Bahrain.

Saudi is very serious. I think its the one that will quite probably have world wide repercussions.

Saudi bans protests