Flight disruptions very likely 16-18th May (at least)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

bbc news report

this ash dispersion model illustrates the reason why.

bump

Thanks for that.

My inlaws are flying back from Portugal tomorrow, looks as though they may be delayed.

you are welcome.
(ps, is it a good or a bad thing? )

new 5 day met office model looks like midweek it clears.

I've not actually decided yet...

It is probably a bad thing for DS, as it is his birthday tomorrow and he is hoping they will be back in time to see them.

And I hope that they are back before the bread and milk I have just left in their house goes off.

But other than that I am quite happy for them to enjoy an extended holiday

I think, looking at the models, the south will be ok for a good part of tomorrow at least.

bump if you've not seen the news

Thanks for this thread, you are far more informative than skynews

DH was flying back to the UK last night, due to land around 6am this morning and when he was just about to leave for the airport last night it was on skynews about possible closures 'sunday and monday' They then said that it would be ok, they would give people 6 hours notice with regards to closures. Fantastic, except when you are flying into the UK on a 7 hour flight
Thankfully DH landed an hour ago but keeping fingers crossed that he gets back here on Wednesday

you are welcome.

latest NATS statement which tells you about present closed air space.

5 day ashcast black=no fly, Charts are at 6 hour intervals at different heights. Note they become increasingly inaccurate over time.

short term ashcast gives a better idea of where closures are likely to happen over the next day. It seems very likely to me that airports in parts of the north/midlands will close later today, including Manchester and later perhaps Birmingham

ok, well I need LHR to be open Wed am as I really don't want a whole weekend with the kids on my own if DH doesn't get back here Wed night (our weekend is Thurs/Friday)

I await updates

Thanks for those links. We are due to fly to Florida Weds morn with my 2 young kids for hol of a lifetime etc and we are beside ourselves with worry and upset

Oh life is so unfair at times. Will keep an eye on those webpages so thanks

you are welcome, I hope that later day will give you some hope. I think there is a reasonable chance for you at the moment.

oh fingers crossed for you Barmymummy. So we both need the ash to keep away wednesday am. Of course I'd like DH back for the weekend but your need is far more pressing than mine.

I hope you can stop worrying and get to have a lovely holiday. Are you doing Disney?

Thanks. Thing is we are going with my mum and dad and they leave Tuesday. They were meant to get there first, get the car, set the villa up, come meet us from airport etc etc but at this rate they won't be flying. I can't bear to think about what will happen if we get there first as we will have no car, no idea where we are going, no food or anything. Just a complete disaster

Worst thing is the not knowing. I also want to know how they deal with the backlogs but no one seems to want to tell you! Funny that!

Please try not to worry Barmymummy, you'll just make yourself ill.
Ref the backlogs, DC1 and 2 were caught up in all the volcanic ash problems last month. They were stranded in KSA for an extra 9 days. We were phoning the airline daily to find out what was happening in the run up to their original departure date and were reassured several times that when the airports opened the flights that were due to go that day (and the next) would/should go on time and those that had missed their flights would go on the next available ones. So hopefully if only shut Monday you (and your parents) will be ok.

You'll be fine even if you get there first. Florida is easy driving and I'm sure you can sort out car hire.
Where in Florida will you be? I know the area quite well and may be able to advise you on directions etc?

My mam & dad are flying back Tuesfrom Spain. Had 6 hour delay onway out but Mam is now panicing about getting back

Can I put a request in for the ashcloud just to stay along the Malta flight path please?Himself is due to fly to Malta tomorrow morning and have 1 child with chickenpox ane one showing signs of starting but no spots, I would quite like hime home nights for the next week.

babyicebean I feel your pain. DC4 came down with chicken pox yesterday, just hours before daddy left. I'm sure DC3 will get it although she seems ok so far (fingers crossed) One grouchy child is enough for me at the moment and am counting the hours til DH due back Wednesday night.

I am due to fly Zurich-Manchester tomorrow. Looking increasingly unlikely that I will

Latest NATs statement :
"The no-fly zone for this period has moved east to a line stretching from Prestwick on the west coast to Humberside on the east coast and south to a line just north of Birmingham. Airports which fall within the no-fly zone include all those in Northern Ireland, Ronaldsway, Prestwick, Carlisle, Manchester, Liverpool, Doncaster, Humberside, Leeds Bradford and East Midlands and some Scottish island airports including Campbeltown, Islay and Barra.

There are currently no other restrictions within UK airspace. According to information from the Irish Aviation Authority, Dublin will remain open until at least 0100 tomorrow (Monday) and Shannon until 2300 tonight."

As you can see NATS only issue short term statements about closures.

I'll just go and have a look at the model output graphs now.

ok, bear in mind am only an amateur and you need to check with your airlines, this is just from looking at the model outputs.

It is just possible that flights in southern airports may be ok first thing tomorrow. I would say that flights to Manchester seem very unlikely I'm afraid. slots may open up later in the day.

Tuesday I am really uncertain on, but I think, if things stay on track that actually it will be ok.

Wednesday I am farily confident that it will be ok.

I've done a rough visual comparison between the met office and gfs weather models to see if there's any big uncertainties in the way the weather will go over the next few days. They seem pretty similar, so I think you can be fairly confident that the met office predictions aren't going to be wildly out.

Hope that is helpful(ish)

According to bbc they think it will be over the london area on tuesday. I'm still uncertain on that, I think I disagree with them.

Thanks OYBK , I havent a clue when I look at the reports!

I'm hoping you are right about Wednesday being ok (from LHR) as I really need DH home, can't cope with sick kids for too long on my own