Flight prices

[Sundayagain27]

Looking at going to Japan in October, a popular time and destination but flights seem particularly pricey at the moment and someone mentioned its because of the war and that prices in the last couple of day have rocketed and its worth holding on. My concern is war doesn't look likely to resolve anytime soon, does anyone have any thoughts on book now or hold on!!

I thought those flights went over the Pole ?
If it's what you want & can afford it, I'd book in case it sells out.
BUT don't check the prices afterwards !

@oncemoreuntothebeachdearfriends might be being a bit dim but what do you mean i thought those fly over the pole?

FWIW the main issue with UK<>Japan flights even before this conflict started was Ukraine/Russian conflict.. most european carriers used to route the shortest way over Northern Russia/Arctic ocean - last four years that's been off the cards, flight times have gone up fuel etc up, so prices have climbed anyhow...

Any current spike caused directly by the Iran conflict will because demand has increased for nonstop flights out to the Far East or at least for flights connecting anywhere but the Gulf.

Final(?) problem heading down the road is the price of oil.....some airlines are well hedged to protect, some aren't....

Frankly how prices are going to look in a few months I have no idea, IMO only possible reason for holding on is to take the chance that if the conflict finishes quickly the Gulf carriers will put on a sale to get business back..

I suspect the thinking was routing via the Pole meant the Gulf conflict shouldn't be a factor...

For the reasons mentioned above polar, UK>Japan hasn't been happening for a while..

We booked tickets on Friday return to Vietnam (had to cancel our original ones) and they’ve gone up by £4k already.

So sounds like they’ll only be going up as war unlikely to end !

I would back now, they'll go up but are unlikely to come back down.

Suspect the China issue is also impacting avails.

https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/china-japan-standoff-results-flight-cancellations#:~:text=Flights%20Restart%20Today-,April%202026,Seeking%20Alternatives

Good spot.

Some Chinese carriers have been ignoring sanctions, overflying Russia and so carrying people Europe > Japan with a connection typically in Beijing or Shanghai...

That diplomatic spat limits that option.

The war has meant that no one will be booking with the Middle Eastern carriers (and the China issues had already impacted flights from there) so there is more demand for the remaining flights. Fuel prices are also going up so prices will increase quite a bit, even on carriers whose routing is not affected. Usually indirect flights are noticeably cheaper. It’s unlikely that flight prices will go down unless it all clears up and the Middle Eastern carriers have lots of seats to sell. We’re booked via Dubai in August so goodness only knows what will happen.

The travel industry is notoriously corrupt in the way prices rise in the school holidays and the way solo travellers get ripped off with single supplements. Why do you expect it to be any different because of a war in some crummy third world country?

I’m currently having the same debate with myself. We’re planning a long trip to Japan this Autumn-Winter and feel unsure whether to book now or wait a bit.

Situation is a nightmare, good luck to OP. At least you are travelling for leisure so can be very flexible. I have colleagues trying to travel for work who only bought tickets just before the USA-Iran war started. They have limited budgets and limited feasible routes, no travel insurance pays out in case of war.

Travel agent is advising them to not yet cancel & rebook, fwiw.

I'm airline staff. Our prices haven't changed yet as we buy fuel in advance but I imagine it's coming soon.

I'm not sure corrupt is correct or fair...it certainly should well known by now that it's a case of supply and demand.

@CeeceeBloomingdale thanks! hopefully war will end ....