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Totally pointless speculation but...

16 replies

Freelancegirl · 05/04/2020 13:58

When do you think we will be able to travel abroad again? I know the most important thing is health and safety and getting rid of the virus but just to ignore that for one moment chat about travel for a moment. I am adhering to the restrictions and fully nervous about going out the door let alone travelling abroad of course.

People travel for all sorts of different reasons - holidays of course are wonderful but I know people stuck thousands of miles apart from places and people they love and I am desperate to get back to the place I grew up in Europe where I am lucky enough to have a house and very close friends. I miss it so much and have cancelled trips for Easter and in April/May but still hoping (health and safety permitting of course) we might still be able to spend the summer there as we always do. Doesn't look very likely I know.

As someone who works in travel I am also worried about the industry as a whole, what will be left when this is over in whatever form of normal or new normal that might be. So many jobs depend on tourists. Pretty much all my friends abroad have lost their jobs.

I know a lack of travel has been good for the earth too and it's not currently safe to travel...but just from a travel point of view does anyone want to talk about when we think we might be able to travel again? And also what you're hopeful for in terms of when/where you will be going?

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Theyweretheworstoftimes · 05/04/2020 14:06

The thought of no travel would kill me. My sister lives in Canada and my Dad in Scandinavia. I would never see them again

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OnlyFoolsnMothers · 05/04/2020 14:11

From travel agencies I’ve spoken to/ friends have dealt with the speculative consensus seems to be July. But it won’t be business as usual

I do wonder if there will be places we won’t be allowed to travel to and from easily for at least a yr eg. US

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HoffiCoffi13 · 05/04/2020 14:13

Maybe July/August time, but I think still with restrictions on place.
My IL’s live abroad and we booked to see them in July for the first time in 3 years. Can’t see that happening now. The DC have been counting down the days on a calendar since we booked it late last year. Just hoping we get to reschedule for a time in the not too distant future.

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ShanghaiDiva · 05/04/2020 14:15

I think it will take a long time: once countries have controlled the virus in their country they will not want reinfection coming from outside, hence China closing its border to foreigners including those with residency.

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chocolatesaltyballs22 · 05/04/2020 14:16

I can't help thinking that the government won't want the travel industry to be completely fucked? I'm still holding out hope for a July holiday in Europe. Have already lost one holiday (would've been going today). I think the country's morale will be at rock bottom if people have to give up their summer holidays.

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Freetodowhatiwant · 05/04/2020 15:24

I agree I think (again total random speculation) that it would be prudent to try to save our travel industries (think of all the by product jobs from cleaners to airport staff to food suppliers etc etc!) before they totally collapse. But who would take us? The place I call home (as well as England) has been one of the hardest hit and I would so love for travel there to be able by summer. I feel so sorry for you with families abroad right now, luckily my parents are here in the uk but they could have easily been in Europe.

I know I’m lucky to have a holiday home but this is becuse that’s where I grew up and my parents are often there too. It’s always been my go to place when things were bad but if we really can’t go there for the summer I guess we would be better off here anyway where at least we can (at the moment anyway) at least go for a walk rather than be completely trapped in houses in 35 degree beach with no beach and pool to make up for that.

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Freetodowhatiwant · 05/04/2020 15:24

Oh sorry for random name change

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Spike2020 · 05/04/2020 15:31

We have a holiday booked to the canaries for October half term and hoping that will go ahead. Had a holiday booked for last week in May but pushed that back to 2021 as cannot see that one going ahead.

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morecoffeerequired · 05/04/2020 15:36

I'm inclined to think that it will be this time next year before overseas travel is back to anything remotely resembling normal.

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KoalasandRabbit · 05/04/2020 19:03

We probably won't travel abroad until there's a vaccine and it's widely available so something like second half of 2021. UK before then, they may allow this summer though not at all sure as it would spread the virus - depends if aim of policy is to shift spread to summer or to keep it to minimal levels. I think its shifted to trying to get reduced levels so NHS isn't overwhelmed so maybe UK travel will only come back in 2021, or at least after summer of 2020.

We are cancelling holiday in June (school trip) and holiday in summer (family holiday), losing almost all the money probably so can't afford until summer 2021 now anyway. I won't book for 2021 until really clear it's safe to travel unless offered a transfer of this year's things.

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underneaththeash · 05/04/2020 23:42

I think July/August. Bear in mind there will not be a travel industry if the ban lasts until the second half of 2021as the above poster suggests.

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Zodlebud · 06/04/2020 09:40

I think tourism in this country could well be allowed to open again by July / August time but it’s unlikely we will be allowing large numbers of tourists uncontrolled into the U.K. and likewise us into other countries.

Why would countries like Spain even consider allowing hundreds of thousands of tourists coming from numerous other countries in and living in close proximity in hotels / eating in restaurants / drinking in bars? The pressures that could put on local healthcare systems would be enormous. You have seen how quickly it spreads.

There are also travel insurance implications. People would need to check if they are covered for treatment of COVID19 whilst away or the costs of being quarantined if you show symptoms. Also, do you want to spend your entire holiday confined in an isolation room because you have a slight temperature on arrival?

Travel restrictions will be relaxed a little I am sure but I doubt everything will be back to normal. Call me sceptical but we have just written off a foreign holiday this year.

We are due to be heading to Asia in July and visiting two countries. The first is operating as normal but taking temperatures everywhere you go (on arrival, at immigration, every time you enter a hotel or restaurant etc). If you have a temperature you are put in isolation for 14 days. The second country won’t even let people from the U.K. in at the moment, not even for transit.

Plus we haven’t had our travel immunisations yet and nobody is giving these at the moment - too risky in case of a bad reaction and they have other priorities. I am not travelling without them so if by mid May we can’t get them then I have to reschedule. Thankfully my travel agent will shift everything for no extra cost so looking forward to going in July 2021.

By then we should hopefully be able to be tested for immunity or a vaccination be available. Much better circumstances to travel under.

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chocolatesaltyballs22 · 06/04/2020 10:08

Why would countries like Spain even consider allowing hundreds of thousands of tourists coming from numerous other countries in and living in close proximity in hotels / eating in restaurants / drinking in bars? The pressures that could put on local healthcare systems would be enormous. You have seen how quickly it spreads.

Because many of them rely heavily on tourism to keep their economy going?

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ShanghaiDiva · 06/04/2020 10:09

I think all countries will need to rely on domestic tourists.

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KoalasandRabbit · 06/04/2020 10:11

I don't think there will be a global travel ban until mid 2021 but we as a family wouldn't travel until a vaccine is widely available so second half of 2021 maybe. I'm sure others will be off here, there and everywhere once travel is allowed if other countries allow us in, would imagine some countries will let us in for the money even when it's puts their population at risk. I would anticipate even once allowed if its pre a vaccine which is likely it will be reduced as people concerned about the virus' impact on their health or the health of others avoid travel.

I would have thought is you allow international travel in the school summer holidays of 2020 it will spread like crazy and NHS and other countries healthcare will be overwhelmed as it spreads incredibly fast and lockdown before then would have been pointless. But there will obviously be huge financial pressure on companies in sectors like travel and a lot of people's incomes - I would anticipate some airlines would be bailed out, some will be allowed to go under, travel companies normally government help is highly geared to saving large companies but its unprecendented. I would imagine it will take some travel companies under and some quite quickly, several sectors are the same and government support is patchy, loans don't really help if you can't be certain of future income.

UK travel would guess 50-50 as to whether allowed in this summer holiday, my guess is no but it depends if we are in lockdown / schools closed then. Also may depend what testing reveals. I'm sure the government will be doing economic impact assessments but as the number of lives lost could be incredibly high if it's allowed to spread and the WHO's 3.4% death rate of those infected is correct they may allow a significant economic impact to save lives. I think I read a figure of £20,000 per year someone would have lived without the virus is being used though could have remembered that wrong. Though at this stage I don't think any definite decisions have been made so no-one knows.

I think whilst the risk of quarantine remains people may change what they book away from larger hotels and cruises.

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Matildathehun77 · 06/04/2020 11:19

I think travel will restart as soon as possible because too many countries rely on tourism however I wouldn't be surprised if there are more restrictions put in place for a year or so after this. Possibly you'll need a doctor's certificate of good health to fly or airport checks will become much, much stricter. I can't see how countries will be happily opening their borders to anybody and everybody in only another four months time.

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