Which universities seem most stable for History degrees this September?

[Fabfabfab]

With DC starting a History degree in September and all the recent news about redundancies and cuts to Humanities, I am starting to feel a bit concerned about his options. Which universities are currently considered relatively safe with lower likelihood of this happening? Exeter (DC's insurance) now seems like a bad idea, due to likely strikes (UCU currently voting on this) and large scale compulsory redundancies. Heard similar issues are happening at Leicester, Sussex and Lancaster. Bristol also talked about strike action recently. Durham is his firm and I know they have been talking about working to rule. Is this carrying on/likely to escalate in September? Warwick told us at the OHD that they are expending the History department but it wasn't one of DC's top two choices and he de-selected it. Now thinking that this was a shame and should have been his insurance. The plan will probably be to go through clearing if he doesn't meet his Durham offer. Any inside information on which Russel group universities are likely to be a bit more stable? In addition to Warwick, York is another option. Oxbridge and UCL are very unlikely to be in clearing so no point considering.

Agree.

Cambridge is filthy rich (including College endowments) but running a deficit.

Most endowments are restricted.

But some of that shedding might be due to a fall in student numbers 🤷🏻‍♀️.

I fully accept many and possibly all universities are shedding staff but a university in an operating surplus with massive endowments is still better off than a university forecasting a deficit of £25million.

No planned strikes now doesn’t mean there won’t be any later. I really wouldn’t use this as a measure when your son is making his choice. Also, even when there are strikes, it doesn’t mean the whole university closes down. Many academics aren’t UCU members and so don’t strike. Sometimes even UCU members don’t come onto campus on strike days, but work from home. If lectures are cancelled, students will be given reading to do and often they’ll be given the recording of last year’s lecture to watch. Some departments deliberately don’t examine students on material that was missed due to industrial action. I’m not saying this to undermine the UCU strike action (I was a member myself for decades), but that was the reality at my university. Obviously, if strikes go on for a long time, it does start to impact the student experience, but short term action isn’t a big deal from the student POV.

Even if universities close some subjects/disciplines, there will be teach out arrangements for the 2nd/3rd years.

International student numbers, central funding, and student fees not keeping up with inflation are significant. The resources required in relation to some compluance issues are mind blowing. We have to fund three full-time staff to respond to FOI requests. The NI hike implemented by the girl from accounts added £2.5m because lowering the threshold brought our VL's into its remit.

@Fabfabfab let your son decide where he thinks he'll be happiest x

This post is in reference to the permanent 10% cuts at Edinburgh.

Student numbers had not fallen. Overall numbers grew from about 35,500 to nearly 50,000 between 2014-15 and 2024-25. However in common with many other UK universities, Overseas numbers had recently fallen. (There was a negligible one off admissions shortfall of about 250 before the cuts. I have been an Admissions tutor and over a whole university this is not significant.) Also, again as is true everywhere, each Home student in STEM is educated at a loss.

With the new(er) rules for student visas, Overseas enrolments are likely to continue low for the most part.

To take another example, I agree Manchester looks solid and the academics there have not gone on strike since 2023. However it was just as solid before, and AI informs me there were half a dozen academic strikes and a prolonged Marking and Assessment Boycott between 2020 and 2023.

I agree with your intuition and usually endowments have clauses permitting emergency waivers in the use of funds. But I don’t find it useful when trying to predict the short and medium term impacts on students.

@Fabfabfabhave you looked at Southampton? They have had a voluntary severance scheme, but have huge cash reserves and have History in clearing: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/clearing/course-vacancies?subject=History&filter=&studentType=uk&availableOnly=true

Although Southampton is very low in the rankings compared to the places the OP has outlined. It wouldn't be a typical fallback with Durham as first choice. You'd expect the student to still want Top 10-12.

Agree, and Southampton is not known for its History courses.

@poetryandwine A lot of the issues are surely about over expansion and the cost of borrowing.

Since the cap was lifted on student numbers in 2013 the numbers recruited went up and up and quality lost out. If you are recruiting humanities students and overseas students to pay for expansion of stem courses, universities are a hostage to fortune. The world changes and political decisions have an effect on student recruitment. Brexit should have started universities seriously reviewing what was offered and a big wake up in terms of external factors making finance very unpredictable.

Borrowing costs are also a huge concern for any business and universities are not immune. Maintaining quality as opposed to massive expansion would have been a better policy in my view. Constant lobbying of the government to put up fees (which in essence increases government borrowing) was never going to fly.

I agree with much of this, @MeetMeOnTheCorner The overexpansion when the £9K fees came in was pigs at the trough. The large majority of universities planned badly, and are now being bitten. I include in this the massive growth of the adminstrative cohort. I value good professional and support staff as much as anyone, and luckily I know a fair few. But the creation of new layers of admin with little purpose has been nothing short of shocking, and very expensive.

I think you are right about the quality v quantity trade off and the failure to plan for the long term. And Brexit! It is important to preserve disciplines that are now vulnerable, and to preserve the perception that they are worthwhile - they are! But consolidating some less popular degree programmes may be sensible. I don’t see why each university need offer everything, though geography should be a consideration.

Fees is a tricky one. It isn’t right for anyone that more cost effective courses should in effect subsidise more expensive courses. Or that Overseas students should subsidise Home students to such a degree. What is the alternative to putting fees up?

Perhaps revising the student loan system, which doesn’t seem fit for purpose, and developing more good alternative pathways to university would help.

Not looked at Southhampton as an option but thanks for sharing anyway. Looks like it's already in clearing with entry requirements as low as BBC! Good to know just in case a-level results are far lower than expected (but keeping my fingers crossed he will get his PGs of course!)

Like last year, Southampton have gone early and considerable with their drop in my Humanity. 3 grades down already and last year they dropped in the end to C's and D's.

@poetryandwineThe issue with increasing loans to cover higher fees is that the government is, in essence, borrowing. The students are borrowing that money and they don’t like it. The public purse is already borrowing £250 billion to back the loans. There’s not much that will change that scenario. The extension to 40 years is the unpopular start to claw more money back.

Already lack of jobs for humanities students is causing huge issues and humanities grads have been subsidising stem grads for a very long time. So maybe stem students should pay more? Then listen to the wailing of doctors!

Universities are like oil tankers. Take a long time to turn round and can get stuck on the rocks. Totality agree about profligate management but few unis have management experts as VCs. They have not had to run a slick organisation. That’s in stark contrast to publicly quoted companies (ok let’s ignore Thames Water!) where there’s greater attention paid to income, costs and profits. The HE sector is not very nimble.

I totally agree with keeping humanities but certainly consolidation is required. Not just of courses either. Why does Lincoln have two universities? Plenty of other examples. I think slimming down improves quality because it concentrates expertise in fewer areas, requires fewer buildings and could improve the student experience. I think universities cannot expect more public or student money. So the answer has to be from within the sector but it’s very piecemeal.

I did not know that Lincoln has two campuses. Could certainly do with scrutiny; it may or may not be reasonable.

I would not be sad if some badly managed unis were converted to house other kinds of training programmes, except for the affected staff. The mismanagement tends to be at a higher level than the fallout.

The idea, implicit in your post, of perhaps charging Home students the cost of their degree is interesting. I agree the loans programme is already too large. What about converting to a graduate tax, that could apply equally well to other training pathways? I think it is a reasonable stance to offer free tertiary education and training and then tax the beneficiaries a fixed, very small percentage of income for the privilege.

The second Lincoln “university” was only made a university a few years ago. It has been a successful teacher training college for many decades and predates Lincoln University. Was one of the best teacher training colleges in the country for a long time. It’s expanded its course offerings now to non teacher training degrees as well. But it’s very small. Though I accept does Lincoln need two establishments both offering business degrees or criminology degrees.

Well 14 years ago it was granted university status, but that makes it even more ridiculous. A number of unis were teacher training colleges but they didn’t need separate university status. No one thought to include its work within Lincoln university, or perhaps the gravy train was too gilded? It’s this sort of thing that’s very wrong.

Yes, @poetryandwine I would like to see a bigger variety of HE study and the old HE route be re-established with local industry being directly catered for. There are undoubtedly going to be issues with apprentices paying nothing and other grads paying, in some cases, above the value of their degree. Maybe anyone with a degree pays an amount via tax? If you benefit, you pay? Except of course, employers are paying! It is very difficult to see a way forward but if students are taking loans, they do want value for money and not feel they are being used to subsidise others who will earn more and are far more likely to get work.

What does it matter that there are two small unis in Lincoln? Are there too many in Manchester or London or New York? Why would denying one uni status help them financially? As unis they are subject to quality controls that benefit students. What's the problem?

We need to account for the true costs of educating Home students as a starting point, @MeetMeOnTheCorner . I agree that subsidies between degree programmes are not attractive. (They are typical in the US, too, but fees at four year institutions are higher there).

If your employer will pay for you I think that’s fine, though obviously the details remain to be worked out. (What if you change jobs?) All the better if this encourages YP who aren’t particularly interested in the intellectual engagement offered by uni away from weak, less employable degrees and into useful employer funded training programmes.

Yes, otherwise a tax following tuition free education or training seems fairer all around than what we’ve got.

Any idea how we could transition?

@poetryandwine When employers paid, you had a contract that required you paid them back a certain % if you left but all courses were part time and not degree money. That’s part of what we have lost and I think it’s a shame. Apprenticeships are similar but they are free of fees to the employee. I guess expanding these could help because many as so hard to get but - the degree sector is enormous so it’s not surprising. It’s a bit off topic in terms of op, but we really need to strengthen the quality of work/training for the CCC and below type student and the BTec student who are not strong academically but are sound and wanting to work . A poor degree is a very expensive choice.

The "tax" is unfair though if you've paid for your own tuition or if you've paid off your student loan. You would have to start it from a particular point in time and apply it to anyone studying from that point onwards only.

We need to get on top of this. We have too many universities which are all competing for the same students. We have tuition fees which don't cover the cost of educating home students (partly because we have too many universities and so overheads are duplicated) and we have too many unprofitable courses which universities are scared to cut because of potential strike action. We also have too much spend on student support. It just isn't sustainable and it's breaking the system. Unfortunately, whilst it will cause some disruption in the system, we need some consolidation and we need tuition fees to rise to £12k per annum. I also think maintenance loans should be split in two. You should have an accommodation loan of up to £10k per annum depending on what you require for your accommodation and then a subsistence loan of £4000. Students will hopefully then understand that they shouldn't take the maximum accommodation loan unless they need it and it will make them think more carefully about their university choices. There is no need to go to a university where you will spend £10k+ on accommodation if you can go to one where you can spend £7000. It's just racking up debt.

DSA needs to be cancelled other than in very serious cases. It's ridiculous and an extraordinary number of students have support that is a nice to have but really isn't needed. Almost all of my youngest DC's friends trotted off from their expensive private school with a subsidised laptop via DSA, software that they mainly don't use and hours upon hours of incredibly overpriced learning support sessions. Youngest DC says the sessions are hopeless and a complete waste of time but looking at the DSA breakdown they are incredibly costly. So many kids apply for it thinking that they need to because they want to continue having their extra time in exams (not realising that university degrees are not graded on a bell curve and tend now to give all students much more than the time they should need for the assessed work).

None of this will happen though

Agree with your main points, @Era .

It is important to protect students with real issues and give them a level playing field, but the percentages on special arrangements continue to climb.

It isn’t for us to challenge diagnoses, but I wish we could persuade students and their families of the importance of building resilience and self confidence. Just as taking needed help is right, so is doing without unnecessary help. I am sure more students would graduate better prepared for life’s next steps if they used their time at university learning how to meet the predictable expectations of the adult world.

The threat of redundancies at Exeter is staggering. The University is in a secure position financially and the departments under threat are world renowned. There is a lot of push back on this at present.
I have academic colleagues there with expertise that you will not find anywhere else.

I’m not sure about this- there is a high threshold to qualify for DSA support. I work in this area and have supported students who probably would not have been able to attend university without it. Some are quite remarkable, wheelchair users, visually impaired, MS, often many complex needs which overlap. Others don’t claim because they don’t want to be ‘different’ or stigmatised amongst their peer group.

This is true as far as it goes and it is a big problem. No sensible person would deprive students of needed help, or fail to encourage them to take it up.

However about 20% of uni students now declare a disability, well over double from earlier this century. The big growth has been in mental health conditions, and the main remedy is extra time in exams.Concomitantly about 1in 8 graduates is now a NEET. I think these statistics are related.

The situation is surely complex, but at many universities students with a prior history of extra time are able to arrange it going forward. It is surely appropriate in a good portion of cases, but hardly always - I myself have heard students joking about this, and some have discussed with me being told by their parents to seek out ongoing ET to maximise their marks, and how to get a diagnosis the uni may accept. (I don’t understand why, but it frequently seems to work. I know this from my tutees and from sitting on Mit Circs panels)

These students are not learning resilience. They are learning that they need to stack the deck in order to succeed, a terrible lesson.

ET and other remedies are both under- and over-utilised.

Agreed. My own DC both qualified, one has ADHD and one has a visual processing disorder. They applied because school told them they wouldn't get their extra time without applying. This isn't correct of course. They really didn't need the extensive and very expensive IT support packages then put in place for them. There are people on WIWIKAU asking if their child can get an ensuite upgrade because they don't like the idea of sharing a bathroom due to their anxiety. Or asking for a studio flat because they are worried about someone leaving their dirty washing up in a sink. Not all of these issues will correlate to a real need for such extensive support which has financial implications either via DSA or directly via the university. There has to be a limit.