Have we misunderstood how UCAS choices and offers work?

[PeeringOvertheparapet]

DS wants to study M Eng in aerospace. He narrowed down his five options, and has offers from all five. Now here’s the thing I think we misunderstood when he filled in the UCAS form: as per general advice he put down three aspirational choices, then one he should make, and one insurance. He is predicted 3xAs (and an A in an AS). I stupidly thought he would get offers based on his predicted grades, but largely he has got offers based on achieving the required grades. For the M Eng these are mostly A star AA. The likelihood of him achieving an A Star is remote unless he really pulls a finger out. So what is the point of making him an offer then, if he is not predicted to get their required grades? If this is the case, surely students could apply and get offers from anywhere, irrespective of their predicted grades (but then have no realistic chance of offers on results day)?

Given this, it seems a hugely risky strategy to select one of those three as his first option, although one of them is his favourite.

The insurance choice is sorted, so that’s fine. I had wondered if he might receive a slightly different offer based on the AS level he is also taking. One of the unis has given a reduced offer based on this, the others have not.

He is now not sure which uni to firm, given the likelihood it will be challenging enough to meet his predicted grades, never mind that elusive A Star. Any advice would be appreciated.

I stupidly thought he would get offers based on his predicted grades, but largely he has got offers based on achieving the required grades.

Er, yes, this is the way it's aways worked. He's been given 'provisional offers.' Provisional on achieving required grades.

Any pupil could be predicted any grade. Whether they achieve them is a different story. Universities don't have the information or resources to second guess a pupil's teachers, who after all, have been teaching said pupil for years.

So we offer on predicted grades - the clue is in the meaning of the word prediction. The offer goes from provisional to confirmed when the required grades are achieved.

The uni was very flexible, UCAS is not.

It's the university where the decision is made whether or not to make an offer to an applicant, and what offer to make if one is made. UCAS has nothing to do with this. If UCAS passes on to a university the details of an applicant with predicted grades of AAA, say, for a course with a usual offer of AAA and the offer made is AAA, there isn't a mechanism for UCAS to alter this.

If this is the case, surely students could apply and get offers from anywhere, irrespective of their predicted grades (but then have no realistic chance of offers on results day)?

Yes they could. The onus is on the student to apply for courses that they have a realistic chance of getting on to.

When in this situation I realised that I really really wanted the aspirational university and so spent the 5 months left working like mad. Ended up exceeding it ironically!

How much does he want the first choice?

It helps to have an idea of which places are likely to be flexible if a candidate misses a grade and which aren’t.

In reality, for most courses at most places, unis will be flexible. So firming the option you really want can often pay off as you might well be accepted and then also get the accommodation guaranteed as a firm candidate.

It really tends to be a handful of most popular courses at the very top unis who can’t be flexible because of numbers. You’d be surprised how many very very good unis and even top unis for not quite so popular courses have to be a bit flexible.

At the same time it’s worth knowing that 80% of students don’t get their predicted grades with most achieving below them. So, firming an offer which requires grades beyond your PGs might be a stretch too far….if the PGs were already aspirational, you will be stretching it if you’re beyond 2 grades out on results day. Many places will take 1 grade missed. A surprising amount will take 2. Actually lots will basically take anyone, but I’d question the value of those courses to be honest if they’re taking people with 3/4/5 grades even below their standard offer.

A candidate with PGs of A is pretty unlikely to get an A star. Huge numbers of those predicted A star don’t get them! So you need a sense of if the A star is a hard requirement. They are unlikely to take a B for example and a B is often a more likely outcome for someone aspirationally predicted a B.

Not that many courses have A star requirements, and fewer specify what the A star needs to be in. The latter in particular are looking for ways to control their numbers and there is likely to be little flex.

Id say lots of courses require AAA or AAB and the people firming them will often not be those predicted A stars, but at the AAA type level for predictions who typically might actually achieve ABB. And usually those students who have firmed will be taken….as the uni would rather have certainty of a keen bum on a seat - keenesss indicated by them probably having been to Open day,firming and filling in an accommodation form…rather than changing their arm that there is an AAA candidate out there who will choose them when they haven’t visited or firmed and who might be considering numerous options.

So…..yes, be aspirational up to your PGs, I’d say. Many many will get accosted who miss an offer. But if an offer contains requirements beyind your PGs, your chances of achieving the offer are far lower and the danger of missing the offer substantially higher. But then, many unis do need to drop substantially so even then you might get away with it. Because I’d suggest that unis who make offers to students who don’t meet their standard offer in terms of PGs are likely pretty keen for bums in seats and can’t afford to be that choosy, it’s not the sign of the most selective uni or one that is over subscribed is it?

How can you see which of the Universities to which your child has applied still have vacancies?

I suppose courses which offer BEng and MEng know they can offer the BEng to those who miss the MEng requirement and then fill both courses. I suppose it depends if you’re prepared to do the BEng instead.

MEng courses with A star requirements tend to be at good places. The MEng is essentially the ‘top set’. Maybe they offer MEng to all and let the exams do the selecting….thise who miss the offer can be offered BEng instead. Most subjects don’t have the option of filtering applicants to a lower requirement degree. So maybe top unis waive offers to students who don’t meet the standard offer with their PGs for subjects with M and B possibilities but not with other subjects. If you take the risk and firm, you really need to be willing to accept the BEng if you miss the grades..and know you might not get accommodation either.

@WhisperingAngelisnotbad If you do a course search on the UCAS website and go to filters there is an option to show courses with vacancies under the heading Course Vacancies.

@WombatChocolate DS applied for Integrated Masters at several places with AstarAA standard offers. The offer for Bachelor degrees were the same at those universities. The only one that had a lower grade for B rather than M confirmed at the Offer Holder day that they would offer the B if you missed the M grades but got the B grades.

In reality his firm accepted him having missed 2 grades on results day but he did get the required grade in the specified subject.

Well this thread has been a learning curve for
me and in me feel I let DC down a bit. I thought it was only worth applying to those courses whose grades your predicted fell into ie no point in applying for an AstarAA course if your predictions are AAA! So DC didn’t apply for anything needing higher that AAA as that was the predicted.

Pretty much all have then have vacancies as equal consideration date was only last week so decisions haven't been made yet

Yes, everyone is right that universities basically have a standard offer for each course. They won't change it for individual candidates, but they often have "contextual" offers for certain schools etc and will also sometimes take candidates who just miss their offer.

Also worth bearing in mind that the majority of candidates get less than the predicted grades on UCAS.

Yes, and that makes total sense!

I work in a university. Apparently the “high tariff” universities are making a lot of undergraduate offers this year as they expect a drop in international postgrads. They can make these offers easily if they set the expected grades high, and then they have control in August over the size of the intake. They can lower the requirement or not, depending on the the bigger picture.

Depending on the popularity of the course, that's what a lot of PPs are saying tho.

IME and in that of others here, PGs are rarely exceeded and often the actual grades are lower. Most teachers will give a PG of "their best-ever day" which may not be the day they have in June.

I don't think you did let your DC down-I think you made a sensible decision. As @WombatChocolate said, 80% of predicted grades are overly optimistic. Most students gain lower than their predicted grades. Therefore, it is not a good idea to apply for universities requiring grades above the predicted grades.

Quite often if your predicted grades don't match their standard offer, the uni won't even give an offer so ds has done well so far.

If he really likes one of the aspirational choices then firm that and work hard?

there's not normally a lot of flex on the offers for aerospace though so if he drops a grade it would be the insurance uni.

key thing is how they allocate accommodation at the insurance uni - some don't guarantee accommodation...

Apologies - I moved away from the thread. Lots of good advice here, thanks to all. Yes, the (slightly lower) required grades for the BEng are mostly within his reach, and the unis all confirmed on open days they would make a BEng offer (if he meets those requirements) if he misses the MEng grades. I suppose my concern with this is: would he be better placed in this case at a uni that he meets the MEng requirements for from the get-go, in terms of keeping up with his peers etc. Is there an increased risk of not continuing to meet the MEng requirements at the higher tariff unis and therefore having to drop to BEng?

In which case surely he would be better to aim more realistically rather than aspirationally – 4 years is a long time to struggle. For those asking, he will probably (happily) choose Liverpool as his insurance. The others (in no particular order) are Soton, L’boro, Sheffield and Nottingham. No real favourites from him in there yet, although Nottingham has made the slightly adjusted offer so that’s tipping the scales in its favour.

@PeeringOvertheparapetI don’t know about MEng specifically but Liverpool and So’ton have recent form for flex on grades. Nottingham too as it has been going through a tough period and is keen to recruit tbh. Not sure re Lboro (ds is there, great uni) in terms of grade flex.

Sone great advice here. I guess it depends if an A star is feasible? Worth a chat to teachers? And check out the accomm process if he insures Liverpool.

In respect of Southampton for Mechanical Engineering MEng, the non-clearing grades were A*AA for Sep 2025 entry and the grades showing on their site the night before clearing were ABB, which had to include an A in Maths and a B in Physics.

On clearing day itself, I don't think Soton had many places (which I would guess to mean that, by going through the list of those who had it as firm or insurance but who dropped a grade or two, they managed to fill it.)

A benefit of Soton is that they allow those who have it as insurance to pick their accom choices at the same time as those who have it as firm, and I believe they guarantee that insurance places will get something, though do check that.

NB - Aerospace Engineering is a different course at Soton and so may or may not drop grades this summer as much as general engineering, or indeed at all. They were very clear on open day that if you started in another Engineering discipline and wanted to transfer to Aerospace, you would need to have the right grades to be considered.

On your other ones:

Sheffield with an A*AA offer went into clearing with AAA for some disciplines BUT mechanical engineering wasn't one of them in 2025 - elec eng, robotic end and civil eng. I would have noted down if Aerospace was in clearing, so I don't think it was.

L'boro with an A*AA standard offer was showing ABB for Mech Eng in clearing

Nottingham had some surprisingly low clearing grades (BBC/ABD as long as you had at least a B in Maths and at least a B in FM or a science). HOWEVER elec eng and civil eng were listed in clearing but not mech eng. I would have noted down if Aerospace was in clearing, so I don't think it was.

(I know he is confident re Liverpool as insurance, but standard offer last year was AAB for Mech Eng, which went to BBB in clearing)

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Dear goddess, I put a lot of work into this clearing spreadsheet, which wasn't needed in the end so I'm glad if it can help someone else!

I appreciate everyone's very detailed replies, thank you. Given this, I don't think it's wise to hope on an A Star, even if he pulls it out the bag unexpectedly (he does have form for doing this, but I think this jump may be too much). And it's sobering to hear how many don't even achieve their predicted grades. Planning ahead for accommodation in light of this is a good suggestion, thanks. @SheilaFentiman that really made me laugh! I spent ages agonising over this board last year before results day to be prepared for our turn this year (which is partly why I was kicking myself over misunderstanding this basic principle of offers). There was so much detailed excellent advice then too: I already know what I'll be poring over the night before results come out in case it all goes belly-up, to have Plan C ready (and probably will be creating a similar spreadsheet that hopefully won't be needed)

Reported latest post as spam. Note that data from the ‘free tool’ comes from students supplying grades, rather than actual data from UCAS which can be purchased.