UCAS insurance choice advice

[CarlaSun]

DC attended lots of open days. Has PGs AAA and GCSE all 9-7. Plans on applying for 5 Unis with required grades A*AA-AAA. Typical for the course they want. How necessary is it to have one choice requiring AAB as their insurance, even if not on their preferred list of unis?

It is not necessary. More important that he lists unis and courses he wants to choose.

Hi, OP -

A great question. The answer depends on a few things.

How competitive is the degree programme? At top programmes in some fields such as Economics, applicants need predicted grades substantially in excess of the stated requirements (or other exceptional qualifications) to be competitive.

How accurate is the school with predicted grades? About 80% are wrong, with most being too high. The last couple of years we’ve seen a lot of flex when offers have not been met, but the higher the offer the less likely this is.

Most importantly, what are the applicant’s predicted grades?

As a former admissions tutor in a School with a very high offer, I know that exams can go wrong for anyone and I recommend an Insurance offer two grades below the predicted grades. But if a candidate is predicted three A stars, A star, AA already fulfils this. The Insurance offer must be considered relative to the PGs and their accuracy.

PS I often agree with @LIZS

In that I think most YP can benefit from a gap year when Clearing does not work, I don’t disagree now. But the grades you list suggest your YP is thinking about rather competitive programmes, which are less likely to be in Clearing.

I would be looking at somewhere that offers AAB but it depends on- I have students who will get contextual offers so that can be considered too, you can also apply with not all your choices and then add a couple at Christmas when they have had more assessment/mock results

Teachers often give higher UCAS prediction than they think they will get. So they could well end up with ABB. It’s difficult for students on results day when they have only applied to top unis & don’t quite make the grade as they’re then scrabbling around in clearing. You should listen to advice. It’s frustrating for teachers when they are in tears on results day because they refused to consider somewhere requiring lower grades & then can’t get into anywhere decent. It does happen. Personally I think a grade 7 at GCSE will usually result in grade B at A level (unless they work incredibly hard & somehow make huge progress).

My son has three A star predictions and has applied to 5 with AAA as minimum. However, two of those were in clearing this year with ABB and BBB offers (I realise this is not an indicator of what may happen in 2026 but it does suggest the courses are not oversubscribed). So he feels reasonably confident he could drop a few grades and still get accepted.

Great post from @converseandjeans

Degree programmes that don’t look hugely attractive now may seem much more desirable if exams go wrong, or if predictions were over optimistic. Even though we were seldom in Clearing during my term on Admissions, we were always inundated with calls on Results Day and this was always a big theme.

So many YP fall below PG for reasons pp have set out and results day can be difficult.

I would definitely include an insurance at AAB so allow for a drop of 2 grades from predicted. I wonder whether the issue is your DC isn’t really decided on their first choice uni? They can only pick one out of their preferred universities as their firm anyway so perhaps worth honing that choice a little.

Sorry, OP! On a frantic train I missed that the PGs are, I think, A star A A. A bad start to the week.

Yes, an AAB insurance is important from my perspective, unless a gap year is an acceptable alternative. Otherwise DC is at the mercy of Clearing. Why would you limit yourself like that?

@CarlaSun Can you share what subject your DC is considering applying for? Because that is going to make a difference, actually.

By the time they have to decide their firm/insurance, it may be clearer how they are likely to do, and they may be reasonably safe without going down to AAB. A lot depends on whether the predictions are "on a good day, if they keep working hard and cope as well with harder topics in year 13" or "I'd be really surprised if they didn't get it". An honest discussion with their teachers may be useful before making that decision. However to have that option, they would need to include one at that level in their choice of five.

Thanks all for the replies really helpful. They are looking at law courses (appreciate LNAT has impact too).

I would aim high for the first 3 choices, within the top 10 on complete university guide and then 2 more within the top 20 (York and Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester all fall within this second tier).

https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings/law

Mine is yr2 law (sat LNAT) and didn’t have an offer below AAA in her list.
Where have they applied?
Have they got a high grade EPQ some will drop a grade for that?
Its’s good to have a couple of none LNAT in the 5 just in case score isn’t outstanding.
Some are well ranked but decent chance of an offer and likely to take with a missed grade eg Exeter is a massive law intake.
I’ve watched clearing for law 23,24,25. I knew if she missed her grades there would be opportunities in clearing. Lancaster has been BBB in clearing last few years, none RG but well ranked.
Clearing 2025 RG unis for law Southampton was BBB, Cardiff was available not sure grades you had to call, Liverpool - was ABB I think, Queens Belfast AAB for English applicants.

Agree with @KittyMacNitty use complete uni guide or times league tables for law (ignore guardian it’s way off for law)
York is a unique problem based course, it’s marmite so they need to check it’s for them.
If you amend your heading to law you’ll get lots of specific advice.
It’s important to be tactical for law and awareness of acceptance stats.
So eg yp is predicted Astar, A, A and sits LNAT. Applies for Durham, UCL and Kings (LNAT) plus Warwick and one other.
LNAT results not out until mid February.
So if a DC does better than average in LNAT but not an amazing score that’s knocked out their 3 LNAT choices - 3 rejections. The student room law forum is good for LNAT scores advice.
Warwick, @stubiff has updated FOI stats on another law thread on here but with only one AStar prediction chances of an offer are low ish for a home student.
So that leaves one of their 5 choices potentially making an offer. If they have wasted that on a lower ABB one they don’t really want then potentially they have no offers they want. That can really rattle a bright academic dc.

@CarlaSun
My DS is in a similar situation.
As @Cakeandusername suggested we got FOIs from a number of places, as AStar/A/A PG is a bit tricky for Unis whose std offer is the same.
LNAT was out for DS.

Warwick, Durham and Bristol were all similar where the offer rate (for those PGs) was < 20% or a lot lower.
So, if you put 3 or more down of those types (just because you have the grades), you risk getting no offers at all (for that group).

But, conversely, the PGs (above) are good for AAA types. Offer rates were 98%+.

DS has gone for Warwick, Exeter, Leeds, Sheffield and Lancaster, and within 2 weeks had offers for the latter 4.

Really depends on which AAAs DC may put down as some, like Southampton, are likely to be in clearing and would accept lower on the day if it was the insurance. I.e. you don't need an AAB choice just to put as an insurance.
But, it may turn out that an AAB choice is higher up the preferred list than many AAAs.

@CarlaSun My DD is a lawyer and one thing he needs to consider is whether he wants to be a barrister or solicitor, and where. Eg Manchester is the top uni to go to for law jobs in Manchester, but not in London. Top London firms recruit more from LNAT universities. So I would bear career aspirations in mind because university matters for some areas of law.

You always say this, over and over and over again, but other posters have said that this is out of date information and that lots of people who train in Manchester or other Northern cities equally find jobs in London.

You should stop giving out mis-information. Its not new and its not relevant.

@KittyMacNitty Really? Prove I’m wrong! Law tends to be regional. That doesn’t change.Most Oxbridge lawyers aren’t working in Leeds or Newcastle. They are far more likely to be in London.

But that doesn't mean those who trained in the north aren't recruited in the south? Just that those who start in the south tend to stay in the south.

Dd is doing law.
Her predicted grades were 3 A stars.
Her first choice was Leeds A star AA.
Insurance was Newcastle AAA.
She got A star, A B.
You just never know how things will go. Dd is still cross about her B. She had never got a B in any of her work. She was 4 marks off an A.
Newcastle wouldn’t entertain the B and she ended up in clearing. She got a place at Sheffield which was very nearly her second choice but she didn’t love the city.

The research says this. Top earners are mostly in London. Regional firms prefer grads from regional universities.

Yeeees, top earners are in London but they recruit from EVERYWHERE

Is it really that the firms prefer them, or is it that grads from regional universities are the ones who choose to apply to regional firms?

@lanthanum Well I didn’t do the research and it certainly could be what you say but they also say London Unis topple Oxbridge for earnings suggesting more of these uni grads work in London. That’s also understandable. It’s definitely usual for Oxbridge law grads to be in London. The big money is there. It’s not in York. So it’s more likely grads from regional universities don’t get the high paying jobs in large numbers but of course they get some jobs! However they almost certainly do stay in the regions in larger numbers. There’s also research saying these grads want London jobs when they start at uni, but don’t end up in London. The cost of housing and not being able to live at home are major deterrents for some. Plus not everyone likes London or wants the silly hours.