Hi, OP -
DH is a Russell Group maths professor in the tier just below COWI and I am a former RG STEM admissions tutor in a maths adjacent subject. Between us we have opinions on many RG Schools of Maths.
I like your list. I’ve been skim-reading, but a couple of points I’ve not seen emphasised (and might have missed):
St Andrews Maths is about as competitive as Oxbridge. It isn’t particularly exceptional for research but the Teaching and Learning and Student Satisfaction are extremely high. You called it ‘second tier’. I would not consider it in any way to be a more likely prospect than Oxbridge, even for an applicant predicted four A stars.
Glasgow isn’t on your list. In the last Research Exercise Framework (2021), Glasgow came tops in Scotland and was a UK Top 10. They are strong in the Pure specialisms likely to appeal to someone who likes CS. Student satisfaction is generally high. The university is in the lovely West End. (In Scotland DS could go for Y2 entry if preferred)
Also, Edinburgh is facing budget cuts of 10% pa for the foreseeable which is bound to have wide ranging impacts. TBF, this is to prevent a crisis (whether it is necessary seems debatable) and we don’t have a clear picture of what’s happening with the sector as a whole.
Having said that , DH knows a number of wonderful academics at both places.
PP is correct that Warwick now accepts the TMUA. I am glad that DS understands, at least in theory, the hurdle that STEP creates. I was prepared to say something because few candidates do seem to grasp this, but will refrain. In his place I would defo try the TMUA for Durham, Warwick, etc.
BTW DH assures me that Warwick is definitely recognised as a top Mathematics destination by mathematicians worldwide.
I am not sure why Exeter is on the list? If DS loves the place that’s reason enough, but from a mathematical perspective it’s ….. fine.
I’ve always thought highly of Bath and Lancaster so I was glad to see both of those. Loughborough is internationally known for STEM T&L and has great Student Satisfaction. Southampton is fine and I understand the appeal. Personally I would replace Exeter with one of Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Nottingham, Sheffield, but again DS may have his reasons.
Finally, I have seen far too much evidence that absolutely anyone can mess up their exams. Badly. So when it comes to his Insurance choice, I recommend to DS as to anyone that he allow for two dropped grades on a three grade offer - an Insurance offer of A star AA or lower. Unless he prefers to risk a gap year, of course. That’s slowly becoming more acceptable in Maths but some of the best Schools will require evidence that you are keeping up during the gap year. Some don’t like it at all.
Best wishes to DS.