There is a recent FOI request which shows % of applicants with 3x A star, 2xA star etc down to AAA and % who got offers and the actual grades of those who started in 2023 and 2024.
Sorry I can’t link it but if you search ‘what do they know Durham History’ you’ll prob find it.
If I recall, even with 3 A star predictions only about 60% got offers and for those with one A star or AAA it was below 15%. The most common grades of those starting was 3x A star.
So, although A starAA is standard offer, not many with those predicted grades will get an offer. Prob lots who were predicted higher don’t achieve it but clearly get in if they meet the standard offer. But most achieve above it. It is a high achieving course in terms of entrants.
Its not as competitive as something like Economucs in terms of applicants per place, but you have got to be top academically.
Warwick was in Clearing for History for a short period. I think York was briefly too. Not Durham on results day although they had suggested availability in period before that, but until results day it’s all a bit meaningless.
I’d say with AAA it’s really not worth applying. With one A star you could choose to use a slot in applying - you’ve still got 4 more.A highly impressive PS with evidence of lots of wider engagement and comment on what’s been read/listened to etc could swing it. But it should be viewed as a long shot.
And think carefully about asking for higher PGs - it can help get offers obviously, but if the PH was already generous there a risk of missing by more than 1 grade and losing a place and accommodation probs.
But you’re right that lots did accept near misses this year, so with many places you can afford to be a bit aspirational. Mid tier RG unis seem to have taken lots who missed a grade for most courses, including History.